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Everyone, including the three broadcasters on ESPN, were flummoxed by New York Giants coach Pat Shurmur in the fourth quarter.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley scored a touchdown to cut the Atlanta Falcons' lead to 20-12. Conventional wisdom in the NFL is to kick the extra point and (probably) make the score 20-13. That was a touchdown and extra point in the game, or the Giants could have gotten their Mike Vrabel on and gone for two-point conversion and the win after the next touchdown.
The Giants were not, however, and analytics analysts smiled and nodded.
The Giants went for the two-point conversion after Saquon Barkley's touchdown. They failed when Odell Beckham could not keep up with the score 20-12, but the logic behind the decision was sound, even as ESPN's announcers were beside themselves.
"You increase your chances by 50 percent if you go for it and make it there," Shurmur said after the game. "Then if we score a touchdown we just kick the extra point and win."
Doug Pederson employed the same strategy
Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson made the same decision earlier this season against the Vikings. The Eagles trailed by 14, scored and then went for two.
The concept is aggressive, but it's practically going for the win and not the tie, just as Vrabel did the end of the Titans-Chargers game Sunday. If a team goes for two and gets it, they're down by six points. Then touchdown and high-percentage extra point wins, as Shurmur pointed out. Needless to say, is better than going to overtime. While most teams will play for overtime, this is only about 50-50 proposition, and probably worse for a team like the Giants that was on the road and not expected to win.
The worst-case scenario when you go for the two-point conversion, as Shurmur did, you might not have a chance to tie the game with a two-point conversion after the next touchdown. Considering two-point conversions are successful roughly 50 percent of the time, which you will end up hitting one of two attempts.
Going for extra points when you're down. Going for two gives you a chance to win and avoid a 50-50 shot in overtime. It's as simple as that.
Shurmur's two-point conversion decision did not end up affecting the outcome. The Falcons hit a field goal to push their lead to 11 points, then in the final seconds the Giants scored a touchdown. Barkley scored the two-point conversion, though the Falcons recovered the onside kick that followed.
Pat Shurmur explains his decision
Shurmur knew, even though the final outcome was not affected, his decision would be dissected. In his postgame press conference, he said he knew the media wanted to know about the two-point conversion so he explained it before being asked.
"I just felt like, we discussed internally the math on that," Shurmur said. "I thought we had a good play.
"We just did not get it done. But they did not kick the field goal, I felt good about our second two-point play, which we scored on. I wanted to be aggressive for our guys. "
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "ESPN's Seth Walder did a good job after Pederson's two -point decision earlier this month of breaking down the maths According to ESPN's numbers given the possibilities of converting the two-point conversions and making extra points, if the team down 14 scores twice (and only twice) touchdown, they have roughly 60 percent chance to win and a 40 percent chance to lose. Baltimore's Justin Tucker can tell you – it gives that team a 45.5 percent chance to win in overtime and 55.5 percent to lose."data-reactid =" 37 "> ESPN's Seth Walder did a good job after Pederson's two-point decision of this month of breaking down the math. if the team down 14 scores twice (and only twice), they have about 60 percent chance to win and 40 percent chance to lose. win in regulation, and factoring in missed extra points – they're not longer, as Baltimore's Justin Tucker can tell you 45.5 percent chance to win in overtime and 55.5 percent to lose.
Going from a 45.5 percent chance to win to 60 percent is obviously a massive difference. What Shurmur did not make perfect sense, though that will not keep you from ripping his decision anyway.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "More from Yahoo Sports:
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<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
Follow @YahooSchwab"data-reactid =" 45 ">Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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