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Dan Balz
Senior Correspondent for National Policy, the Presidency and the Congress
According to a new survey conducted by Washington Post-Schar School in the most contested districts of the country, the contest for control of the House remains tight and fiercely contested, with Democrats holding a statistically minor lead over Republicans.
The latest survey shows only a marginal change in the race in October, with 50% currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 47% supporting the Republican. Candidates from both parties compete collectively in nearly 48 disputed constituencies won by President Trump in 2016, while Democrats retain the advantage in 21 constituencies won by Hillary Clinton. The advance of the Democrats in these districts of Clinton has been slightly reduced since the beginning of the month.
The vast majority of districts surveyed – 63 out of 69 – are currently represented by a Republican in the House. Together, these battlefield districts voted strongly for Republicans in the 2016 election. The fact that margins are at their current levels illustrates how much the GOP is in danger, but also the fact that many individual breeds are likely to be close. Democrats must win 23 seats to take control of the chamber.
[[[[Read the full results of the survey ]
On the whole, the likely voters in these districts give the two main parties mixed-negative ratings. Democrats are rated favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 52%. For the Republicans, it is positive at 47% and negative at 53%.
Most voters have a favorable opinion of one party and the other, but 10% say they do not like both parties. Voters in this group say they prefer Democratic candidates in their constituencies by 15 points. Four years ago, when the People's Party had won mid-term, voters who assigned a poor rating to both parties at this stage of the election said they preferred Republican candidates to the House of 17 points .
According to the poll, the battle over Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh's confirmation in the Supreme Court has stimulated voters on both sides. About 6 out of every 10 likely voters in each party say they are more motivated to vote on November 6 as a result of the clash, which included allegations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh that led to fierce denials by him and others. that of other Republicans. Nearly half of the independents without bias say that it motivated them to vote.
[[[[How was the survey conducted? ]
The Kavanaugh audiences divided the country. Many Americans claimed to believe in Christine Blasey Ford, who accused the judge of having sexually assaulted her while they were both in high school in the Washington suburbs. charge.
The new survey reveals that the majority of voters in battlefield districts (57%) are concerned that men with whom they are close may be unfairly accused of sexual assault. But a much larger majority (78%) is concerned that women in this country are not suspected of having been sexually assaulted. Overall, between 59% and 41% of Americans believe that the main problem is that we do not believe women who claim to be sexually assaulted.
On a related issue, a majority of 54% of potential voters say that men who commit sexual assault face serious consequences less than half the time. More women than men have this perception, between 60% and 49%. Eight out of ten Democrats and just over three out of ten Republicans say that men who commit such acts do not face serious consequences most of the time.
Kavanaugh's confirmation has turned into an overworked partisan struggle, and the findings of the new Post-Schar School survey prove it in the answers to questions about men and women. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they fear that men will be unfairly accused of sexual assault, 76% versus 34%. This argument was advanced by President Trump and other Republicans while Kavanaugh was fighting to save his nomination.
Conversely, Democrats are much more likely to say they fear that women who report sexual assault are not believed, with 98% of Democrats expressing concern about the situation, compared to 63% of Republicans. The Democratic leaders had presented this argument to Ford's defense, which they believe should be believed, although it has begun to announce the news of its alleged aggression only several decades later.
59% of independents fear that their relatives may be unfairly accused of sexual assault, while 74% fear that women will not be believed when they denounce an assault. On both issues, independents are a little closer to Republicans than Democrats.
On the question of which is the biggest problem, 92% of Democrats say that it is not women who are believed, while 69% of Republicans say their concern is unfair accusations against men . 55% of independents say that the most important problem is that women are not believed.
The survey conducted by The Post and George Mason University's Schar School of Politics and Government was conducted in 69 congressional districts deemed competitive by the team. Cook political report and post political staff. Polls have identified candidates from major parties in each district. The survey followed voters who had been interviewed in late September and early October. The poll, which was in the field from October 15 to 21, did not attempt to measure the state of the races for the Senate. The results among the sample of 1,269 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Overall, there was little movement between the two polling stations: 93% of respondents supported the same candidate in the first round. Of those who changed, 2% went from Democrats to Republicans and 2% went from Republicans to Democrats. Others went from no opinion to one of the parties.
On the contrary, partisan attitudes hardened during the month. Today, 95% of Democrats say they support the Democratic candidate in their district and 90% of Republicans support the GOP candidate. In the first poll, 93% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans supported their party's candidate.
To the extent that Democrats have an advantage in these districts, it is thanks to the support of women, as was the case in the previous survey. Among potential voters, men favor Republican candidates from 51 to 46 percent, while women support Democrats from 55 to 42 percent.
Non-white voters support Democrats 2 to 1, while white voters support Republicans with three statistically insignificant points, 50 to 47 percent. Among white voters, a slim majority of men with a university degree and no degree, and women without a university degree, support Republican candidates. But white women with a university degree support Democratic candidates by a margin of 23 points.
Nearly twice as many voters as likely to support Republican candidates say their vote is more favorable to the GOP candidate than to the Democrats, from 51% to 27%. Voters who support Democrats also tend to say that they are more motivated by the support of the party's candidate than by opposition to the Republican, albeit with a margin of 45% to 29%.
Interest in the elections remains high, with a Washington Post-ABC News poll released earlier this month, which found that 77 percent of registered voters said they were certain to vote or voted early, compared with 65 percent in November. October 2014. Some say the vote ends up not being the case, but in states that allow early voting, there has been an upsurge in interest that could indicate a higher-than-normal turnout for elections mid-term.
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
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