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MOSCOW – National Security Adviser John R. Bolton is in Moscow this week to explain to officials the decision of President Trump to withdraw from an arms control pact signed in 1987.
Mr. Trump and his hard-working colleagues, especially Mr. Bolton, have long expressed dissatisfaction with the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty because they claim that Russia is in breach of and that China is not a signatory.
"Unless Russia comes to see us and China comes to see us, they all come to tell us that they say," Let's make sure we're all smart and that there's no difference between them. " we are not developing these weapons, "" America would pull out and start building new nuclear weapons, "Mr Trump said after a campaign rally on Saturday.
In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov alluded to a new arms race, saying that Russia would also be forced to develop new weapons "to restore balance in this area".
The Kremlin's proposal and reaction raised immediate questions about an aging arms control treaty that few people under the age of 30 even knew existed. Is it really so important that his death triggers a global arms race?
What is I.N.F. Treaty?
The treaty solved a crisis of the 1980s when the Soviet Union deployed a missile in Europe called SS-20, capable of carrying three nuclear warheads. The United States responded with cruise missiles and Pershing II.
By the time President Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader of the time, concluded the arms ban in 1987, intermediate-range missiles had come to be seen as a trigger of nuclear war because of their short flight. times – as little as 10 minutes.
This was particularly troubling for the Soviet command, which could be eliminated by a "lightning strike" before being able to order a retaliatory attack. Partly to remedy this shortcoming, Moscow has developed a"dead hand" will set fire to its US arsenal without directional orders, based on computers interpreting radiation and seismic sensors.
In 2014, during the Ukrainian crisis, a government newspaper published an article claiming that this system using "artificial intelligence" to order a nuclear war was still operational even though it was not activated in times of peace.
The treaty prohibited ballistic or land-based ballistic missiles ranging in range from 311 to 3,420 miles. It did not cover weapons launched by air or sea, such as Russian Tomahawk and Kalibr Russian cruise missiles fired from ships, submarines or airplanes and easily traveling similar distances.
Does Russia really cheat?
This certainly seems to be the case. It is the Obama administration that first accused Russia of violating the treaty in 2014, while the crisis in Ukraine amplified tensions. US authorities have stated that Moscow is openly deploying a missile that is banned by the West. SSC-8, a land cruise missile that threatens European nations.
Even under the Obama administration, the United States argued that Russia was violating the treaty because it had deployed banned tactical nuclear weapons intended to intimidate Europe and the nations of the former Soviet aligned states. on the West.
But the biggest concern of the Trump administration may well be in Asia, where the 1980s pact now prevents the United States from landing short and medium-range land-based missiles in response to China's efforts. to define a sphere of influence and to contain naval forces in the Western Pacific.
The Chinese, although they did not sign the treaty, weighed Monday, saying they also opposed the unilateral withdrawal of the United States.
Mr. Bolton, speaking in front of the Echo of Moscow radio station in Moscow, replied that "the Chinese do not participate in this agreement and want it to be preserved".
This was hardly a surprise, he said, adding, "If I were Chinese, I would say the same thing."
How has Russia reacted?
In short, with warnings of an arms race and other apocalyptic threats.
Asked about the possibility of a withdrawal from the United States earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin raised the issue of Nuclear Armada, saying that the Russians were ready to launch a retaliatory attack because they were not going to be killed. they knew that they would go to paradise in a nuclear war.
"The attackers must know: revenge is inevitable and they will be destroyed," said Putin. "And we, victims of aggression, will go straight to paradise as martyrs, while they will only croak."
Others have been a little more restricted.
"Any action in this area will provoke a reaction," Sergey V. Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, told reporters before a meeting with Bolton.
This went from official warnings of a new arms race, with an outside expert threatening that Russia is developing a swarm of small bombs carried by drones to hit the United States, to suggestions that it is safe. would be bluffing on the eve of the mid-term elections in the United States.
On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Peskov denied that Russia had violated the treaty, saying that "on the contrary", it is the Americans who have violated its spirit. Russia argues that US missile batteries in Europe could be used to fire offensive weapons and that US armed drones fly within the limits prohibited by the treaty for cruise missiles.
With Mr. Bolton in town, Rossiskaya Gazeta, the government newspaper, published an article entitled "Trump turns to blackmail, "suggesting that he was applying the same intransigent tactics that used for trade agreements to a nuclear deal.
How do Europeans see the problem?
Curiously, although the new intermediate-range Russian missiles threaten Europe, it is the European leaders who have protested the withdrawal of the treaty.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said in a statement that the treaty "constitutes an important pillar of our European security architecture", while many analysts have noted that the issue could potentially widen the gap between states United States and Europe. a period of deep stress for transatlantic relations.
Maja Kocijancic, spokesperson of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said in a statement: "The United States and the Russian Federation must remain engaged in a constructive dialogue to preserve the INF Treaty "because" the world does not need a new arms race ".
But as Russia prepares to deploy a hypersonic missile not covered by existing arms control agreements, with China deploying mid-range missiles and the United States reacting by changing cruise missiles to deploy in Asia, many experts say.
