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If President Trump does not pay attention, his concessions with North Korea will soon resemble the gifts that President Barack Obama had made before the nuclear deal with Iran.
Trump denies ever making concessions to the strong man of Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un. But last week, the Pentagon announced the cancellation of the Vigilant Ace exercise, the annual winter training jointly organized by the United States and South Korea to prepare for North Korean aggression.
The Ministry of Defense said the "suspension" of the exercise had been applied to support Trump's diplomacy in Pyongyang. So how is it going?
State Secretary Mike Pompeo traveled to Pyongyang two weeks ago for the fourth time. He had lunch with Kim and quickly left the city. On the surface, the luncheon was to organize a second Trump-Kim summit, whose date and location are not yet known.
But Pompeo told reporters that the North had also agreed to allow outside inspectors to travel to Punggye-ri, a nuclear site claimed by Pyongyang. The inspectors will arrive once the "logistics" are over, said Pompeo, recognizing however that they will not be allowed to enter Yongbyon, the site on which real nuclear work is being conducted.
For his part, Tomás Ojea Quintana, a human rights observer at the UN, notes that North Korean atrocities are not even on the agenda of the disarmament talks. And as he told reporters on Tuesday, "The situation on the ground, according to the information I gathered this year, indicates that there is no change" in the horrors inflicted by Kim on his people.
In other words, the planned summit of Trump-Kim will be marked by little real progress beyond the atmospheres. And the fired arms.
The latest Pentagon announcement resembled the cancellation last spring of the joint Ulchi Freedom Guardian summer exercise on the eve of the Singapore summit.
Not to be outdone, Seoul announced this week and Pyongyang agreed to withdraw its troops and weapons from its border.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in's "Moonshine Policy" consists of endless concessions, gestures and a shower of love for Kim. His most recent actions are therefore not a surprise. But what is it that explains Trump? Especially given the way he constantly blames Obama for delivering "bribes" to Iran?
Trump says his openness to Kim is easily reversible. "We have not given anything," he insisted on Fox News after the Singapore summit. In addition, canceling military exercises saves us a lot of money. And they can resume as soon as Trump orders.
Not quite. The Vigilant Ace exercise involves up to 12,000 US and South Korean soldiers, as well as many air and naval assets. This requires complex coordination and long-term preparation. Once canceled, it will be canceled, at least for this year.
But what if, God forbid, Kim, a leader known to act erratically, renews the tests of missiles or aggressive nuclear missiles? Or its missile launches? Will we be ready?
Trump rightly notes that Pyongyang continues to face pressure. We have not yet lifted the sanctions concocted by the outgoing UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, who clearly hurt the North. However, according to a new draft of the UN report that has been leaked, Russia, China and other countries are already violating these sanctions. (The project has not yet been officially released, as Russia demands that its guilt be removed.) And Moon has asked for sanctions exemptions for joint pet projects with North Korea.
As we learned in the run-up to the war in Iraq, a global sanctions regime can be relaxed and lead to war. The cancellation of military exercises is a bad signal for America's determination to maintain heat. This will only hasten the end of the severe sanctions.
And remember: Trump actually fosters the pressure of opponents by demonstrating military might. This week, the US Navy concluded a high-profile parade of sailboats sailing in the Taiwan Strait. Trump knew how much this would provoke China's anger, but he was seeking to signal America's commitment to the freedom of navigation and defense of our ally, Taiwan.
Of course, goodwill gestures can sometimes strengthen diplomatic efforts, but Kim is unaware of these nuances. Even worse, we have little reliable information about Pyongyang's activities, and what we know is often colored by Seoul's increasingly pink glasses.
Trump rightly criticizes Obama's clumsy attempt to unravel Iran by showering him with gifts. Yet his eagerness to make the Korean peninsula an oasis of peace, preferably before the 2020 elections, led him to adopt a similar approach with Kim's regime.
