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Canada is trying to find a solution to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, apparently torn between the desire to stand up to Saudi Arabia and the breakdown of an agreement on arms sales at a very low cost. high.
Since Saudi Arabia acknowledged Saturday, after weeks of denial, that Khashoggi was assassinated in front of Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul, the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been called to cancel a contract of 2014 for the sale of light armored vehicles to Saudi Arabia.
The arms export had been negotiated by the previous government but the Trudeau administration had finally given the green light. Trudeau said the terms of the deal, which are largely secret, include a punitive cancellation policy.
Earlier this week, he suggested that canceling the sale would cost Canadians a lot. On Wednesday, he said the government was looking for a way forward in the Khashoggi case because Canadians were expecting "consequences" for Saudi Arabia.
"We are also looking at the contract to see what we can do because obviously as we learn what has really happened to Jamal Khashoggi, Canadians and people around the world are waiting for consequences, "he told reporters in Ottawa.
Since Khashoggi's disappearance on October 2, after his entry into the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, the United States, Canada and the major European economies have struggled to act together, offering condemnation statements, but hardly more.
President Trump defended Saudi Arabia and criticized Khashoggi's explanation of death as "the worst concealment ever suffered," but insisted that the killing would not jeopardize US arms deals -saoudiens.
The European Parliament on Thursday passed a non-binding resolution condemning the murder of Khashoggi, a columnist contributing to the Washington Post, and urging an arms embargo imposed on the whole of the European Union. against Saudi Arabia.
This decision comes days after Germany became the first Western government to suspend its future arms sales to Saudi Arabia. But we do not know if the resolution will put pressure on the governments of the different United States. Member states, including Britain and France, will do the same by abandoning their own lucrative contracts with the Saudis.
Any new European action will increase pressure on Trudeau, who has just broken off trade negotiations with the United States and Mexico and is considering an election in 2019.
"It's an unfair political territory in an election year for anyone," said Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. "Canada is struggling to find the right level of response."
The exact terms of the agreement on the weapons have never been disclosed. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper has already mentioned the sale of "trucks" to Saudi Arabia. Trudeau once talked about "Jeeps".
But this year, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation obtained documents showing that the agreement covered 900 light armored vehicles, including more than 100 designed for "heavy assaults".
The deal is so secret – and politically toxic – that Ed Fast, who was the Harper government's Minister of International Trade and announced the deal in 2014, now says he knows little about the details, including the cancellation penalty mentioned by Trudeau.
"The expectation of knowing each of the elements of this contract is, in my opinion, unreasonable," said Fast, who is now an opposition figure in Parliament.
During the past year, while Saudi Arabia was strengthening its military participation in the conflict in Yemen, Canada has been repeatedly called upon to withdraw from the agreement.
In March, Trudeau defended the decision to proceed with the sale. "Permits are only approved if exports comply with our foreign and defense policies, including human rights," he said. "Our approach fully respects our national obligations and Canadian laws."
The issue was raised again this summer, when Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland sent two tweets criticizing Saudi repression of women activists. The critics led to a diplomatic stalemate in which Saudi Arabia froze its investments in Canada, recalled his ambassador and gave the Canadian ambassador in Riyadh 24 hours for his departure.
Canada maintained the message, but did not cancel the agreement.
The question now is whether the scandal provoked by Saudi Arabia's role in Khashoggi's death will change Ottawa's calculation.
Supporters of the agreement say the withdrawal will be costly to taxpayers, money and jobs at the southern Ontario factory where military vehicles are made.
As parts of the province are shocked by the dairy provisions contained in the preliminary North American trade agreement, USMCA, the political cost of canceling the sale of military equipment to the United States is the same. Saudi Arabia could be high, analysts said.
Hani Faris, Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of British Columbia, Middle East Specialist, argued that the economic benefits would be minimal relative to the size of the Canadian economy.
"Whatever the government decides, it's not going to affect the economy in a serious way," he said. "If that happens, Canada can stand it and move on."
Yet he did not expect Canada to act alone, he said.
Stein, from the Munk School, said this summer's diplomatic stalemate shows that Canada is not taking a stand against Saudi Arabia on human rights without the support of other nations.
She predicted that Canada would continue to work with its European allies to develop a strategy that leaves the agreement intact, but sends a message, perhaps sanctioning those involved in Khashoggi's death.
"In the absence of clear leadership from the United States, others are now coordinating their policy," she said. "In terms of efficiency, working alone is not an option."
Ross brought back from Montreal. Quentin Aries in Brussels and James McAuley in Paris contributed to this report.
Read more:
Saudi Crown Prince Calls Khashoggi Murder "Hateful Crime", Desires of Alleged Perpetrators Will Be Brought to Justice
Erdogan defended Khashoggi – while Turkey jails more journalists than any other country
CIA Director listens to audio recording of Jamal Khashoggi's assassination
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