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The race to become Florida's next governor is one of the most watched and most titled races of the governor in 2018. She embodies Trump's political era with two strong personalities with irreconcilable politics and, as pointed out a debate Wednesday night, ugly attentions.
In less than two weeks, a Democrat could win this seat for the first time in two decades.
It would be a huge win for the Democrats, beyond just winning the race. As in many other states, they have been deprived of any redistribution of power in Florida over the past decade because Republicans controlled the mapping process after the 2010 census. But the winner of this race will have his say how the congressional and state legislative districts will be chosen for the next decade.
Polls show Democrat Andrew Gillum, a surprise winner of the summer's Democratic primaries, would preside over Republican Ron DeSantis, who was also a black horse to win his party's nomination to President Trump, who liked to see Fox News radical party, approved it.
Gillum's campaign style and compelling background – his mother was a bus driver and his father, a construction worker – combined with his potential as the first black governor of Florida mean that he has the potential to form a coalition of diverse and unprecedented supporters since President Barack Obama. won the state in 2012.
The Democratic candidate for the governorship of Florida, Andrew Gillum, takes selfies Monday at the University of South Florida in Tampa. (Octavio Jones / The Tampa Bay Times / AP)
Or he might not be up to the task, as did the last two Democrats who ran for governorship. Insiders say the race will likely be much closer than Gillum's average of nearly six points in public polls. It's because it encompasses so many major political battles in 2018 that it's hard to handle and unpredictable, "said Susan MacManus, a professor at the University of South Florida and a political analyst.
"Could a democrat possibly win?" I must say yes, "she said. "Could a Republican win?" Yes, it's the most interesting race we've had in Florida for years. "
Here is an overview of the main dynamics shaping this race which, although slightly biased in favor of the Democrats, remains rather unpredictable:
Race: Gillum is one of two black candidates for governorship in the South and his race immediately became a problem in the campaign. Two days after winning the nomination of their respective parties, DeSantis said that Florida did not need to "break the head" by embracing the Gillum campaign, choosing a sentence steeped in racial history. The DeSantis campaign had Other problems related to race arise. A group of white supremacists launched racist racist calls this week on the phones of the black leaders of the Democratic Party. Gillum, for his part, looked at the racial contrast that separates him from DeSantis.
"The same part of this country that was built by people of color could soon be led by people of color," he told Vanessa Williams of The Post newspaper. "That, in the shadow of Donald Trump in Washington, would be a poetic justice in this country. "
And in a Wednesday evening debate, Gillum clearly linked everything: "I do not treat Mr. DeSantis as a racist. I'm just saying racists believe he's racist. "
A referendum on President Trump: DeSantis embraced the president perhaps more than any other major party candidate for governorship this year. The Republicans who watched the race in Washington did well when their data showed that Trump's approval was in the 1950s. But it is proven that the popularity of the president in this state of oscillation could be in the process of retreating. According to a survey conducted last week by Quinnipiac University, more Florida voters would disapprove of the president than would approve it.
(Washington Post graphs)
Corruption: Gillum is the mayor of Tallahassee, whose city government is under FBI control for corruption. Gillum said it implied the city, not him, but DeSantis got admiration this week for pointing out that Gillum seemed to have accepted a "Hamilton" ticket from an undercover FBI agent. MacManus predicts that the smoke could cost Gillum conservative Democrat votes.
Ideological extremes: From immigration to health care, DeSantis and Gillum could not be farther apart from each other politically. DeSantis filmed an advertisement with her young daughter who was building a border wall with blocks, while Gillum thought that the immigration and customs control agency should be abolished "in all its forms ".
The way in which these two extremes manifest themselves in a rotating state, where the last two presidential and governor elections were decided at one percentage point, is a joker. Representatives of both sides claim that the positions of the other candidate are less easy to defend by the general public – but that is a fair theory. Only 27% of Florida voters (the total number of people who voted in the primary) chose these two candidates.
Hurricane Michael: The murderous hurricane, which landed earlier this month in the Florida Panhandle, devastated one of the most surely Republican and most trusted state involvement areas. "I do not think these people will vote," MacManus said.
Jazzmyne Brock, 9, helps her mother and grandmother recover items from a friend 's trailer after her destruction by Hurricane Michael. Scott Olson / Getty Images)
The race in the Senate: Most agents think that the governor's race is the big draw in Florida. "Gillum and DeSantis are such great personalities," said a Democrat in Washington at the end of the race. But we must not forget that the governor of Florida, the Republican Rick Scott, comes to the Senate and spends millions of dollars to try to overthrow Senator Bill Nelson (D). Nelson is leading the polls, as is Gillum. Democrats struggling with competitive House races are also convinced that their party has the wind in their sails. And they credit Gillum at the top of the ticket for that.
The Democratic candidate for governor of Florida, Andrew Gillum, incarnated by Senator Bill Nelson, will attend a rally on Monday. (Self Bob / Florida Times-Union / AP)
Ability of both candidates to convince voters: Gillum is perhaps the most dynamic candidate, but he relies on high-risk voters, such as millennia and Latinos, for whom the election is not excellent. MacManus says DeSantis is not popular in the most traditional corners of the Republican Party. But it could benefit from two last-minute news likely to rally conservative voters: the battle for Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to be brought before the Supreme Court and a caravan of migrants to Mexico asking for asylum at the US border. .
The general nasty tone: The candidates had their last debate on Wednesday night and the debate was as sober as possible. As DeSantis has repeatedly indicated that the Tim Craig Post newspaper had suggested to Gillum to allow child molesters to move freely. Gillum accused DeSantis of being supported by neo-Nazis.
MacManus said that the gutter-style rhetoric reflects just how much both sides have to do in the Florida governor's race. And although Gillum has the potential to mark history by winning, this race is also impossible to predict.
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