Mid-term elections may have the strangest result in decades

Mid-term elections next month could break three decades of political precedent.

Democrats seem on the point of taking the House back, but Republicans should retain control of the Senate on Nov. 6.

This would be the first time since 1982 that a mid-term electoral wave ended with such divergent results.

The political experts had to go back so far to find a case where the Democrats recorded significant victories in the House without winning a major victory in the Senate.

Like many things in politics these days, President Trump is a driving force in the anomaly.

It increases the chances of Republicans in the Senate because it is popular with white voters in rural areas, where there are many contested races.

But it does not help many Republicans in suburban home runs that may decide to control the lower house.

"The personality of the president plays … an outsized role," said Patrick Murray, a pollster from the University of Monmouth.

Although Trump's approval has hovered around 40% before a recent rise, it has become increasingly popular in dozens of races on the battlefield.

Pollsters from the Siena College have met 35,000 voters across the country since Labor Day and found that Trump's professional performance reached 46% in the competition areas.

In the Senate, Trump's force in rural areas is a shield against the democratic thrust.

Ten Democrat senators vie for re-election in the states Trump won – and in five cases by more than 10 points.

By having to defend so many seats, the Democrats will probably not win in a Senate divided in 51 votes against 49 in favor of the Republicans.

"I think we will have a status quo Senate," predicted Jennifer Duffy of Cook's Policy Report, a non-partisan online newsletter.

While Democrats face tough struggles in North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri, Republicans are facing fierce fighting to try to retain Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada.

"North Dakota, it's hard to see them win. Missouri is difficult. Indiana is difficult, "said Duffy. "It has a lot to do with the map."

The situation of Democrats has deteriorated in some states because the fierce fight against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has helped to energize Republican voters, until then helpless, polls revealed.

Trump's influence does not extend to suburban residential neighborhoods formerly dominated by the GOP.

"It's all about motivating the base, not attracting undecided voters," said Murray, the Monmouth Sounder.

"According to our polls, we know that both bases are filled with energy at levels that we have not seen in the mid-term elections."

The FiveThirtyEight website, led by the statistician Nate Silver, estimates that the Democrats' chances of taking the House back to 80%. According to Silver's simulations, Democrats will likely get 35 seats, which would give them a 230-205 majority.

RealClearPolitics, a poll group, shows that of the 31 seats in the House, 29 are occupied by Republicans.

In addition, 14 Republican seats are leaning or likely to become Democrats. Only two Democratic seats are considered leaning or likely to tip over.

"There is a couple [of dozen] Nathan Gonzales, editor-in-chief of the Election Tracking Program Inside Elections.

The House's battlefields focus primarily on suburban communities located near major east and west coasts, such as Philadelphia, Washington, DC, and Los Angeles, as well as Midwestern communities where Trump has surprisingly well behaved in 2016.

In the suburbs, the democratic challenges posed to Republican incumbents are fueled by an overwhelming advantage over graduating voters.

A recent NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll found that Democrats rank first among white women with a national university degree of 33 points, ranging from 61% to 28%.

"We find that educated white women have the highest level of enthusiasm," said Don Levy, director of the Siena survey.

The fracture between the sexes is even evident in a highly disputed race well north of the traditional suburbs of New York's major cities.

In the 21st congressional district, which includes much of the Hudson Valley, Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado is 17 points ahead of women, while Republican candidate John Faso is 19 points ahead of men, according to the latest Siena poll.

The division between the sexes means that the race is neck and neck. Faso is leading with only 1 percentage point, 44% to 43%.

"It seems now relatively trivial that they are fighting to find out if they are watching MSNBC or Fox," joked Levy. "Men are much more likely to support the Republican, and women are far more likely to support the Democrat."

Meanwhile, this mid-term election is set to become the most expensive in history – about $ 5 billion will be invested in campaigns, political committees and other groups before the Center for Responsive Politics projects are completed.

This represents $ 3.6 billion in 2010 and $ 3.8 billion in 2014.

"We have never seen an increase of a billion before," said Sarah Bryner, director of research at the Center for Responsive Politics.