The shares could gain 20% after this debacle, says the Guggenheim Minerd – after that, pay attention to

Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners has good news and bad news for stock investors.

First, the good news: if investors expect a bludgeoning that has resulted in heavy weekly losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, -1.19%

, the S & P 500

SPX, -1.73%

and the Nasdaq composite index

COMP -2.06%

they can hope for more beautiful days.

Minerd, Guggenheim's chief investment officer and one of the largest bond fund managers in the world, said Friday that the recent defeat had left the market relatively cheap compared to its previous highs, allowing the equities to Soaring in the coming weeks and months: "Equities are cheap on the basis of multiple futures and are expected to rise by 15% to 20% from here unless political uncertainties regarding China and the tariffs remain in place, "tweeted Minerd.

Global equity markets have been shaken by concerns over declining business revenues. a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, China; and a decline in other economies that many fear will fail on US shores.

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In the United States, however, the United States has experienced strong economic expansion. Indeed, the Commerce Department reported Friday that the US economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, better than the estimated 3.4%. And while economists may highlight some of the underlying weaknesses, the GDP figure still points to a solid economy.

"I think we are experiencing a classic seasonal adjustment," Minerd told CNBC during an interview Friday after posting it on Twitter. He added that he now thought that the seasonal trend, with October representing one of the most volatile periods for equities, has become positive, paving the way for a strong uptrend.

Minerd estimates, he said, that the downturn in the Wall Street market is not about rising interest rates, which is tantamount to rising costs. borrowing for businesses and individuals. Guggenheim's information systems manager said the rate hike, while the Federal Reserve was normalizing its monetary policy, "is not yet derailing the bull market," which has lasted for about a decade. Minerd has estimated that the downturn has resulted in a 10-year Treasury Bill

TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.35%

5.5%, not the one currently at 3.08%, the lowest level for this debt since October 2nd.

Minerd's current views are particularly noteworthy, as he has held himself to a particularly disappointing market forecast even during the most ardent moments of the summer. He fears that the US trade battle with China will escalate to become more threatening to the world's economies.

During the summer, Minerd warned that investors should not be plunged into a false sense of security.

In this context, the bad news is that Mr. Minerd sees stocks falling by 40% or 50% after the rally he anticipates, as the Fed continues to raise interest rates until it rises. the end of 2019, which risks undermining the market. Minerd predicted a bear market, a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak in the second quarter of 2020.

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