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Brazilians return to the polls on Sunday in the second round of the presidential election between right-wing deputy Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad, former mayor of São Paulo, chosen by former imprisoned president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to represent the left. wing of the Workers Party. Mr. Bolsonaro, whose chances have benefited from the corruption scandals that engulfed the Workers' Party, has a lot to gain, with some polls indicating that the former captain of the army is over 60% more likely. Analysts believe that Brazilians can expect a Bolsonaro administration.
Brazilian economy should improve. Brazil's sluggish economy should be turned upside down by the election of Mr. Bolsonaro and his intention to reform the country's insolvent pension system, sell state assets and reduce bureaucracy and regulation, among others. Businesses and investors have shown restraint pending the election result. The victory of Bolsonaro, a favorite of the market, should free much of this money and accelerate growth, at least in the short term. Long-term growth will depend on whether Mr. Bolsonaro pursues his economic projects and whether Congress supports them or not.
Bolsonaro could accumulate the first legislative successes. Bolsonaro's apparent success in winning over Brazilian voters should also help him win the support of enough congressional members to get several of his proposals approved. His party won 52 seats in the lower house of Congress, which stands at 513, against a seat in the 2014 election, and he is expected to benefit from the support of many groups of evangelical legislators and lawmakers from the United States. State of the farm who love his attachment to Christian values and his commitment. its plans to ease regulations on farmers. Bolsonaro may have to soften some unpopular proposals, such as pension reform, to convince more centrist Congressmen.
More social tension is likely. Mr. da Silva, Mr. Haddad's boss and founder of the Workers' Party, is in prison after being found guilty of corruption and Mr. Bolsonaro has launched rhetorical attacks on women, gays, blacks and indigenous peoples. These events deeply divided Brazil during this election. Some of Bolsonaro's proposed revisions could directly affect minority or marginalized groups, such as the opening of lands reserved for Aboriginal groups for mining or other economic activities.
The fight against crime will become more violent. One of Bolsonaro's key promises is to crack down more on criminals, a major asset in a country that suffered nearly 65,000 murders last year. He said he wants the police to be more violent with criminals, even though critics say Brazil is already among the highest murder rates in the world among policemen. He also proposed to put the army on the streets to fight crime, which some analysts believe the army will resist. The candidate has also long advocated helping Brazilians to buy guns to defend themselves.
The army returns to the government, with a twist. The last time that generals led Brazil from 1964 to 1985, Bolsanro, a former army captain, often praised the country's stability under the dictatorship. He said he would charge his cabinet with senior army officials and that his second, Hamilton Mourão, would be a retired army general. All of these leaders, this time in the framework of an elected government, could create friction at the highest levels of administration while the generals adapt to deal with civilians and vice versa , say analysts.
