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Russia is expected to use a four-nation summit in Istanbul on Saturday to try to consolidate its new role as energy broker in the Middle East and to attract European funds for the reconstruction of Syria after the end of the war.
This is the first time that Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meet to discuss Syria, bringing together four leaders with interests for the end of the war and the resolution of the refugee crisis that it unleashed.
The summit is likely to lead to discussions on the preconditions for relaunching an international peace process and the distribution of humanitarian aid, as well as the tenuous ceasefire in Idlib province, in the north of the country, negotiated with Turkey and Russia.
The meeting ends several months of initiatives by the Russians to give an idea of Syrian stability. In 2015, his intervention helped transform the war in favor of President Bashar al-Assad.
Now, Putin seems to be in favor of a political settlement rather than a bloody and prolonged war.
The solution favored by Moscow would be an international agreement recognizing Mr Assad as the country's leader and sending back millions of refugees to boost economic activity. But it's currently a distant prospect. So far, Western countries refuse to engage with the Assad regime and Syria remains an unsafe country for the return of refugees, according to the UN agency for refugees.
The EU stresses that it will only contribute to the reconstruction of Syria when a "comprehensive, genuine and inclusive political transition … is firmly underway".
However, the four heads of state agreed that there was no military solution to the war in Syria, but only a negotiated settlement, and may be able to lay the groundwork for new negotiations, said Andrey Kortunov, chairman of the Council of International Affairs of Russia -a think tank.
"It's one of the few areas where Russia and the major European players can, if not eliminate, then reduce the gap between them," he said. "There has never been a frank discussion on the specific preconditions for European participation in Syria."
While Assad's troops, backed by Russian air power and Iran's allied land forces, have taken over most of the territory they once held under the control of anti-government rebels, Russia has taken steps to suggest that the country return to normal.
In July, Moscow sent a proposal to Washington to jointly repatriate some 1.7 million Syrian refugees from Lebanon, Turkey, and Europe. Although it never took off, the proposal showed that Moscow's strategy for Syria was often aligned with that of Mr. Assad.
"The return of the refugees would give Assad legitimacy," said Kheder Khaddour, a non-resident researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. To encourage the return of refugees, Mr. Assad granted this month the amnesty of the prison to the army deserters, without however exempting them from the military service which many have fled.
Assad's other military ally, Iran, is pursuing a program that is sometimes at odds with his.
Iran has smothered irregular militias of Syrians and foreigners who are responding to Tehran by the Syrian government. Tehran wants an influence in Damascus as a bulwark against Israel and Hezbollah militia channel in Lebanon, said Khaddour.
On the other hand, Russia has sought to centralize power in Damascus and to reinforce Assad's regular army, as well as mediation between Syria, Iran and Israel.
"Russia wants the whole country to be stable. He wants regional stability, "said Khaddour.
More recently, Russia has successfully negotiated a demilitarized zone with Turkey in Idlib province in northern Syria to temporarily avoid an Assad government offensive against the last rebel stronghold in the city.
Russia also exerted an influence beyond Syria, often intervening where the US footprint had declined. He sold S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Turkey, while relations between Ankara and NATO deteriorated. Earlier this year, Russia had tried to sell a $ 1 billion worth of weapons on advantageous terms to a debt-laden Lebanon, an agreement finally reached by the United States.
And while Saudi Arabia is under increasing global pressure on the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Putin has refrained from criticizing the kingdom, unlike the United States, where relations with the Saudis are strained.
"There is an official declaration of the king, a declaration of the Crown Prince. Essentially, no one should have any reason not to believe it, "Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday in an appeal to reporters.
The Saudi version of events has changed several times. to deny the death of Mr. Khashoggi to pretend that he died in a fight, he has now admitted that it was proved that his murder was premeditated.
