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There is nothing more valuable in American politics than the time of a president. Trump's choice in the final sprint is a telling indicator of the two instances where congressional Republicans have a chance to win (or have to avoid a defeat) and where the Trump team wants it. to be in order to help its own 2020 prospects.
The largest delivery? Trump is heavily focused on keeping the Senate in the hands of the GOP, perhaps a tacit acknowledgment that the majority of the Republican House is already gone.
Fort Myers, FloridaTrump cares deeply about the Florida Senate race – not just because it's a chance for a Republican challenger (Gov. Rick Scott) to overthrow an outgoing Democratic president in the form of Sen. Bill Nelson. Scott, a wealthy health executive who is finishing his second term as governor, was one of Trump's most loyal and loyal supporters during the 2016 campaign – and Trump himself aggressively tried to convince Scott to challenge Nelson.
Why Fort Myers? That's in Lee County, a solidly Republican region that gave Trump 58% in 2016 and 63% for Senator Marco Rubio. It is also one of the most populous counties in the state; Trump obtained 191,000 votes – and a margin of nearly 70,000 votes – from Lee County in 2016.
And do not forget: Florida also has an extremely important governing breed, between GOP representative Ron DeSantis, a top-notch ally for Trump, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Given the size of the state, its implications for 2020 and the governor's role in cutting the territory in 2021, the Florida governor's race may well be the largest in the country.
November, 1st
Columbia, Missouri: It is not at all surprising that Trump is campaigning for Attorney General Josh Hawley, a Republican who will face Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill. Polls show the race is extremely tight and Republicans are very optimistic that Hawley is moving in the right direction.
What is a little surprising, at least at first glance, is that Trump will be campaigning for Hawley in Colombia – in the heart of Boone County. Boone was one of three Missouri counties to have chosen Hillary Clinton in 2016, but 49% to 43%. (The University of Missouri – and its large number of students – is in Colombia.) So, why? My theory: Republicans are trying to limit McCaskill's margin in the county; she won by 27 points in her dazzling victory in 2012 but by only 9 points in her very tight race in 2006. If Hawley can keep Boone at one digit, the calculations for him in the rest of the state seem much easier.
November 2
For Indiana, this project, like Florida, is an exciting project for Trump. The Republican Senate candidate, Mike Braun, is a self-taught businessman with whom Trump clearly feels a certain degree of kinship. And Indiana is one of five states where a running Democrat candidate is seeking re-election and where Trump won double digits in 2016. A recent poll suggests that Braun is in a wave of statistics with the Senator Joe Donnelly (D).
November 3
Why Bozeman? This is in Gallatin County, one of the state's most vibrant counties. Clinton beat Trump by less than a point in 2016. And while Tester had won by almost 9 points in 2012, he had lost it – by less than 200 votes – during his extremely narrow victory in 2006 against Sen. Conrad Burns.
November 4th
Macon, Georgia and Chattanooga, Tennessee: Unlike most Trump trips, this one is for the race of a governor. The fight between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democratic State Representative Stacey Abrams is not only tight but also extremely important on the national scene. (If Abrams wins, she will be the first black female governor of the country.) Why Macon? It is the third largest media market in the state and covers all or part of the 23 counties in the non-Atlanta area of Peach State. And while Macon (and Bibb County more generally) were firmly committed to Clinton, the blue-collar counties south and east of the city – Peach, Twiggs, and Wilkinson – were all swing zones that Trump was barely transporting.
The visit to Tennessee is aimed at boosting Marsha Blackburn's campaign in the Senate in an area where she is almost certainly underachieving. Chattanooga is a Republican region – Trump has won Hamilton County, where she is located – by 15 points in 2016 – but it's much more an institution, a Republican region of the Chamber of Commerce than Trump's Republican territory . Retired Senator Bob Corker, who is not too hot in the heart of Blackburn, is from Chattanooga and much more what the city expects of a Republican than Blackburn, a suburb of Memphis. It's a space where former Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, must head for a chance to fight Blackburn.
November 5
Fort Wayne, Indiana and Cape Girardeau, Missouri: Again, the Senate races of Indiana and Missouri. Fort Wayne is a Republican region – Allen County got 13 points for Trump – but it's a more competitive place in the Trump era than you think. It is also an area where Braun, which comes from Jasper County, in the west of the state, has no natural base.
Cape Girardeau, in the far east of Missouri, is a question of turnout. Trump has gained more than 70% in Cape Girardeau County and Scott County next door. If Hawley wants to beat McCaskill, he has to increase the numbers in this part of the Show Me state.
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