The number of registrations at ObamaCare is not expected to increase in 2019

It is unlikely that the number of ObamaCare plan members will increase next year, as the Trump administration provides an escape route for people who say they have not paid the price.

The repeal of the no-insurance penalty and the expansion by the administration of cheaper and thinner plans that do not meet ObamaCare's requirements could lead to more people leaving the trade when the registration period begins Thursday, according to health experts. The administration will also fund fewer local groups this year that help people sign up.

"I think that an increase in the number of registrations is probably unlikely, given both the policy changes put in place and the operational changes like funding cuts," said Sabrina Corlette, professor of research at the Center on Health Insurance Reforms (CHIR). at the Health Policy Institute of Georgetown University. "But time will tell."

The ObamaCare listing, which includes listings via healthcare.gov and the state markets, has changed little between 2017 and 2018.

Approximately 11.8 million people registered or were automatically re-enrolled in a plan during last year's open subscription period, a decrease of approximately 3% from 2017.

While the average premiums for ObamaCare's most popular plan are expected to fall by 2% next year, the market remains "very expensive," said Chris Sloan, director of the Washington-based consulting firm Avalere Health.

"I think the best bet is that registrations will remain the same," he said.

The changes introduced this year by the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress will also make it easier for people to give up on ObamaCare plans, thus making it unlikely the increase in the number of registrations.

A federal rule that came into effect on October 1 allows insurers to sell 12-month short-term plans instead of the three-month coverage authorized by the Obama administration.

The new packages, which are not sold on the stock exchanges, are cheaper than ObamaCare packages because they cover fewer services and can be denied to people with pre-existing conditions.

But the cost could make up for the shortcomings, especially for healthy young adults who feel they are paying too much for ObamaCare for coverage they do not need. New plans can also be sold throughout the year, while ObamaCare registrations are limited to November 1 and December 15.

Next year will also be the first time that the sanction of ObamaCare's individual mandate is not applied, which means that consumers will not be penalized for not having health insurance.

"With the repeal of the individual warrant penalty, this makes these plans more attractive because they no longer have to pay a penalty and they can buy this cheaper coverage without having to pay any more penalty." said Cynthia Cox. , health insurance expert with the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The Trump administration has promoted these two changes by releasing ObamaCare consumers.

"I want to be clear: under President TrumpDonald John Trump, Mayor of Pittsburgh: Our priority is funerals and not Trump's visit. Trump says he'll answer Mueller's "some" questions. Trump: "Dishonest" to say that I called all the media "the enemy of the people".we will not tolerate a system that would require anyone to pay up to 10 times the price of insurance, "said Health and Social Services Secretary Alex Azar last month.

The vast majority of people who purchase ObamaCare plans receive federal grants and are likely to return to trade in 2019. However, those who earn too much money to qualify for a grant are most likely to withdraw from the exchanges ; In the first quarter of 2018, approximately 1.4 million people purchased insurance from ObamaCare but did not receive a grant.

"As you go up the income ladder and the subsidies become less generous or unavailable, you can see these people withdraw and not be insured, or if they are in good health, opt for one of these options, "said Corlette.

The premiums of the most popular ObamaCare plan have increased by about 34% between 2017 and 2018, mainly due to the uncertainty of insurers as to how the Trump administration would treat the law on care health. While those who receive grants are largely immune to premium increases, those who do not have to pay the full cost.

There are also 2.5 million people buying insurance in markets where subsidies can not be used. This segment of the individual market has "dropped dramatically" in recent years, Sloan said.

"It is very likely that, with the sharp increases in premiums, this trend will continue, even if foreign exchange listings are stable," he said.