Foolish things that can happen between the first and last rankings of the college football playoffs

Unless there is a complete surprise on Tuesday, the 13 members of the college football selection committee should unveil a top four including Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Notre Dame tonight at 7 am on College Football Playoff: Top 25 on ESPN, although the order is debatable.

If you are a superstitious fan of one of these teams, avoid at all costs to take the third place, because the team No. 3 of the initial ranking of the committee has not yet reached the playoffs. Notre-Dame, No. 3 last year, can testify to this. The unlucky Irish finished 14th.

At first glance, the final photo of the playoffs would seem to be settling by itself when Alabama will visit LSU on Saturday for what will be one of the most significant games of the season. If Alabama wins, he wins the West Division and will play the winner of the Georgia-Kentucky match in the SEC championship.

If Alabama loses? Ah, well, that's where it gets interesting. According to ESPN Analytics, there are four scenarios in which the SEC would have at least a 35% chance of sending two teams (again) in the playoffs – even if Alabama lost. If the tide wins, there are three other scenarios in which the league has at least a 41% chance of placing two teams in the top four.

This is seven possibilities for PCP chaos – all around Alabama and LSU. Do not believe it? Viewing.

Chaos can easily spread beyond Baton Rouge.

Michigan can lose to Penn State, but still wins the Big Ten, finishing as champion. A loss of Washington State can still win the Pac-12. Our Lady can lose. The Big 12 can have a champion of two losses.

then what?

The committee is transpiring – and we are turning to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, a metrics tool developed by ESPN Analytics that runs thousands of simulations to project four teams that will be selected on the day of selection. It has been created based on committee trends over the last four seasons. It takes into account the strength of the record, the FPI, the number of defeats and the conference championships, as well as the independence status (Notre Dame, which does not have a title game).

Let's try it and see if a Georgia team, driven by two defeats, can join the SEC champion, Alabama, in the top four – or if the committee has a better option.