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BRUSSELS – The European scene that Angela Merkel has commanded for so long and so effectively risks to crack or even collapse. She was the poster woman of the European Democratic Center, but the center is imploding. She and Germany have been a symbol of stability, but now even Germany is considered politically unstable.
But the prospect of her leaving – she announced this week that she would not seek a new term as German Chancellor – has nonetheless caused some panic within the European Union.
Ms. Merkel may become more and more unpopular at home and her influence on others may diminish. But for those who believed – and worked for – the dream of an ever closer union, Ms Merkel was considered fundamentally trustworthy, decent and attached to Europe and its values. It stood as a bulwark against the populists who strut and now run countries as diverse as Italy, Hungary and Poland.
What Europe will do without Mrs Merkel is not an easy task, especially when nationalism goes up and European politics seems to be reorganizing not in the usual left-right spectrum, but rather around who is for Europe and who is against.
"It gave the impression that someone was controlling and could count," said Jan Techau, director of the European program of the German Marshall Fund, based in Berlin. "She assured that Germany was the reserve power in Europe on which you could rely. Even if she made mistakes, you can trust Merkel even if you do not like her. "
Who can counterbalance the forces that undermine the unity of the bloc during its possible absence – Ms. Merkel said that she would finish her term ending in 2021, although that seems dubious – is suddenly an urgent discussion .
Tomas Valasek, director of Carnegie Europe, said that Merkel had "created the European consensus from scratch", and everyone wonders, "My God, who will do the work for her?"
But for the moment at least, before the European elections in May, Mr. Macron, unpopular at home, has no representative in the European Parliament. And his ideas for reform of the bloc and the euro zone, presented with such fanfare in September 2017, have little or no success.
The problem for Mr Macron was and remains that he is not powerful enough to carry out his ambitious vision of "more Europe". He needs the support of Germany.
On paper, Merkel pledged to support some of Macron's ideas on euro area reform and her call for a fresh start in Europe. If she was lukewarm with regard to some of her other proposals – like the idea of making a European Finance Minister accountable – Ms Merkel would at least have provided a reasonably like – minded partner at the heart of the bill. Europe.
Merkel's successors will probably not support Macron's ideas any further and will have a much smaller scale in Brussels than the Chancellor has earned after some 102 meetings at the EU summit since taking office in 2005.
Whatever the case may be, there is little progress to be announced for the rest of the year, notes Josef Janning, of the European Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin, because "it is a very lame duck up to 39 that a new party leader be elected without a carte blanche to move to Europe. "
All of this leaves something to be desired in order to strengthen the mechanisms of the European Union that could help the bloc to face a new financial crisis, or at least reduce one. "2018 was supposed to be the year of reform," said Janning. "But nothing has happened if it is not trying to solve one crisis after another."
Merkel's inability to do more for all these years to ensure the institutional future of the euro will be a lasting mark against it, Techau said.
But his consensus-based pragmatism was crucial for the death of the Lisbon Treaty governing the relations between the blocs, the decision to keep Greece in the Eurozone against strong opposition and the Western response to the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the resulting sanctions .
Although reluctant leader, Merkel provided a decent but firm response to Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and President Trump, both of whom tried to provoke her.
Of course, some European leaders will be happy to see her go. Merkel's critics said her hard line in strengthening austerity during the financial crisis and her decision to leave a million migrants in Germany could have fueled the populist reaction that is nowadays. the biggest challenge in Europe.
Polish politician Jaroslaw Kaczynski demonized the German Chancellor about the issue of migration and her support for the Nordstream II pipeline from Russia, and the Greeks accused her of not having strangled their country.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban presented himself as the anti-Merkel candidate in the May European elections and, with the new Italian populist leaders, criticized the sanctions imposed on Russia but has so far not blocked their renewal.
All Central European countries were opposed to Ms Merkel's initial welcome for refugees and migrants and her efforts to disseminate them. But as Mr Valasek, Director of Carnegie Europe, points out, Czechs and Slovaks appreciate its financial rigor, and German investments in Central Europe have been crucial to the region's economy.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin could be happy when she leaves too.
Mr Trump has always had problems with Germany, particularly with regard to Germany 's trade and devotion to multilateralism. "But with Merkel, it sounds worse, almost personal, in the same way that she avoids open confrontations and sticks to her principles," Valasek said.
Mr. Trump, he said, will be relieved, but the foundation of the relationship will not change. And I think Putin will be delighted. The persistent force of sanctions against Russia was his personal triumph. "
Uncertainty will persist as to how long Merkel will be able to remain chancellor, despite her keen desire, as Janning said, to "hand over the job to someone who Won at an election ". Merkel, who reluctantly ran for a fourth term after Trump's election, "will put him in dignity with an elected successor and will not be expelled by his party," he said.
But new elections could be held faster than expected.
Writing in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Mattias Kolb said that given all the challenges facing the European Union, "it can only be hoped that Chancellor Merkel and her new partner, who heads the conservative party, will be able to work together and clarify the stakes for Germany "in the European elections next year.
"With his departure," he wrote, "a departing politician has had the ability to speak up to Presidents Xi, Trump and Putin and has always represented the position of the EU. It will take time before his successor achieves such status. "
Merkel's stance as a defender of Western values and international order is a source of concern, particularly in the face of the challenges of Mr Trump, Mr Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. These were expressed in a Twitter message from Richard N. Haass, head of the US Council on Foreign Relations.
"The Merkel era is about to end, leaving the West and the post-WW2 international order without a leader," he wrote. "@RealDonaldTrump's United States has abdicated. The United Kingdom is distracted. Canada lacks resources. Macron is too weak. Bad for stability, prosperity and freedom. "
But Merkel has also been severely weakened. And as Mr Valasek suggests, his departure from his post "could in fact run away from the populist wave".
"The Zeitgeist puts someone else in place," he said. "So it's possible when the starter leader who occupies the biggest spot since 2005 and represents the largest EU country group, that could have a salutary effect on the anxiety of the masses to break out the elite, what that it happens. "
But one thing seems safe. Merkel will not play a leading European role, Janning said.
"She knows how ugly this game is and how little respect the current presidents and prime ministers have for former leaders," he said. "She has no interest in being the assistant of self-seeking leaders."
