[ad_1]
The ecologist party, which defends open borders, posted record gains in securing second place in two parliamentary elections held this month. In national opinion polls, it oscillates around 20%, more than double its score in the general election last year.
The emergence of the Greens suggests that the rapid erosion of the two largest German parties, Mrs. Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) – only the populist currents that swept away other Western democracies.
Merkel's recent decision to step down from the CDU could open the door to a change of government in Germany in the coming months. A rise in popularity means that the Greens could play the role of king maker in forming a new ruling coalition.
Kai Klose, chairman of the Green party in Hesse, is still surprised that his party has managed to win the majority in Kassel, stronghold of the SPD. In the state as a whole, the Greens won 19.8% of the vote, narrowly beating the SPD and finishing second behind the Chancellor's party.
Mr. Klose's explanation: Voters are tired of the CDU and the SPD, fierce rivals in most of the post-war history of Germany, but who rule together in Berlin from 2005 to 2009 and since 2013 Although some may be turning to the anti-immigration solution for Germany, or AfD, others are abandoning the big parties for the smaller centrist alternative, expressing both their rejection of big populism public and right.
"They wanted to send a signal by voting against the Berlin government and against pressure from the right," Klose said.
The trend is an acceleration of an old development that fragmented the German political landscape, first with the emergence of the Greens, then with the rise of the Radical Left Party in the 2000s, and now with the AfD .
Two political developments in Germany and Brazil suggest that the desire for change is not just American, but international in nature. Gerald F. Seib of the WSJ explains. Photos: Getty
An INSA poll released Tuesday showed that the CDU, SPD, Greens and AfD all got between 14% and 25% of the vote – much closer to each other than ever before.
According to analysts, one of the factors behind the rise of the Greens is that they choose supporters not only of the SPD, but also among the moderate conservatives of Merkel's type, who said Monday that she would not seek re-election. as president of his party.
In Bavaria, the Greens got the best result in their history by triumphing over 170,000 voters from the Christian Social Union, the sister party of the CDU, according to the Dimap Infratest voting group. This accounted for more CSU voters than the 160,000 captured by the AfD. In Hesse, the CDU lost a few more votes against the Greens than against the AfD – 99,000 against 96,000.
"Now that the CDU is losing both the Greens and the AfD, they have to find a way to federate very different layers if they want to stay fat," said political scientist Oskar Niedermayer.
Klose and other green politicians said the party's clear path to immigration has drawn centrist voters unhappy with the coming and going of the grand coalition between liberal and conservative positions on the issue.
"With us, the Greens, the voters know what they're getting," said Katharina Schulze, the 33-year-old co-director of the Bavarian Greens.
But analysts say that other reasons have played a role. Although the SPD and the CDU have been torn apart by internal conflicts since taking office, the Greens now have a united front, a novelty for a group that has long experienced internal conflict.
The party also attracted many young voters for the first time, which helped it expand beyond its main constituency of wealthy and highly educated urban elites.
"The Greens are now seen as a pragmatic and rational party that appeals to the middle of society who no longer feels represented by the big parties," said Manfred Güllner of the Forsa polling institute.
The Greens are currently part of the governments of seventeen of the sixteen German states and are expected to form a new coalition with the CDU in Hesse, where they have been co-leading for five years. In rich Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann is the first Green Prime Minister since 2011.
Skeptics think the recovery may be short-lived. On the one hand, support for the Greens has been very volatile in the past. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, the Greens jumped to 28% in polls, and then dropped back to 11% to 13% a year later.
Jurgen Falter, a political scientist at the University of Mainz, said that a deterioration of the economy related to the US-China trade dispute could overshadow climate change concerns and weaken support for the Greens at l & # 39; future. The CDU and the SPD could therefore be interested again in the question. They focused on defending the rise of insurgent parties right and left.
Next year, the Greens will face tougher trials in three states of East Germany, where they have a small number of voters and where AfD is becoming the dominant political force.
"We also carry a lot of responsibilities on our shoulders because very different people have totally different expectations from us," Klose said. "We have to somehow manage this balance."
Write to Ruth Bender at [email protected]
