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This is it, the most anticipated week of the college football season thus far. Not only does a college football playoff-caliber games, it comes just after the selection committee released its first round of mock rankings. But with so many important games this week, just how radically different will next week's rankings look?
Yes, there are games guaranteed to shake things up. No. 1 Alabama at No. 3 LSU has a lot riding on it. So, too, does No. 6 Georgia at No. 9 Kentucky. But there are also some of the teams playing quality unranked opponents this weekend. That's where things could get really interesting.
Each week, I'll give you the answers based on matchups, injuries / suspensions and other factors. Disclaimer: "upset" is defined first and foremost by the point spread, not perception or rankings, though they are both taken into consideration. These are the areas where they are located. I'm also going on the record with the picks and keeping tabs. The scoring system is exactly the same as it is for a long time (ATS) and straight-up (SU).
Week 9 results
Upset alert picks: 4-1
TTY: 4-1
SU: 2-3
Picks to date: 26-19
ATS to date: 22-23
SU to date: 20-25
On this week's picks …
Temple at No. 12 UCF
When: Thursday, 7:30 pm ET | Where: Orlando, Florida | line: UCF -10.5
Why it's listed: UCF athletic director Danny White told CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd "There's a whole bunch of people who want to lose." Granted, I do not want UCF to lose, but it's possible it happens Thursday. Cincinnati, challenged one of ACC's top teams, Boston College, and 5-3 Maryland beat. The Owls have been better as the season's progressed.
Temple's key to the game: Getting running back Ryquell Armstead (ankle) back would be helpful the Knights before. But there's a weakness to this UCF defense, it's against the run. The Owls need to hold their hands when they get to the bottom of their game. This game gets into the 30s or 40s. Shootouts are not their thing.
UCF's key to the game: Quarterback McKenzie Milton's health is also a question. He did not play against East Carolina because of an undisclosed injury. The Knights did not need him, but they'll need him here. Temple has the AAC's best scoring defense over the past month.
Pick: Both teams are excellent against the spread and are coming off an open week. With the AAC East Division on the line, this one should be close. Ultimately, though, I'm more confident in Milton's return from injury and impact. ATS: Temple, SU: UCF
Oklahoma State at Baylor
When: Saturday, noon ET | Where: Waco, Texas | line: Oklahoma State -7.5
Why it's listed: Oklahoma State was floundering and then got all the way up for a big win over Texas off the open week. Trust in Mike Gundy to draw things up when the opportunity calls for it, but this game will tell us that Texas win was an anomaly. And after playing horribly against No. 13 West Virginia as part of two straight losses, Baylor is looking for a bounce-back game.
Baylor's key to the game: Whether Charlie Brewer (concussion protocol) or Jalan McClendon starts at quarterback, Baylor has to protect better. West Virginia got all sorts of things in the backfield and it got the Bears behind the sticks and behind the scoreboard with a quickness.
Oklahoma State's key to game: The Pokes finally got the ground game vs. Texas with Hill Justice and Hubbard Chuba. Even Taylor Cornelius quarterback got involved with some success on zone reads. Baylor's defense is rough, but Oklahoma State's offense comes and goes with the rushing attack.
Pick: Neither team is lacking athletes, but they are lacking consistency. If Oklahoma State keeps the ground game working, it's going to be tough for Baylor to stop it. The Cowboys have found a formula. Can they stick with it? ATS: Baylor, SU: Oklahoma State
No. 4 Notre Dame at Northwestern
When: Saturday 7:15 pm ET | Where: Evanston, Illinois | line: Our Lady -9.5
Why it's listed: This game has been circled for a minute as possible kickstarter chaos. Not only is Northwestern 4-0 against the spread as a dog, it's 3-1 outright in those situations (the lone loss was 20-17 vs. Michigan and the Wildcats in that one, too).
Northwestern's key to the game: It's running back Isaiah Bowser. Northwestern Bowser has 100 goals in the field of two games. Low-key, the Wildcats' style of punishment and a cloud of dust could wear down even the Fighting Irish.
Our lady's key to the game: The Irish have a top-10 pass defense and quarterback Northwestern Clayton Thorson is talented, but hit-or-miss. If Our Lady takes away those short passes, Northwestern could be in trouble.
Pick: The Wildcats are good at growing up and keeping it close. I suspect they'll do it again with Paddy Fisher being a major problem. And while Northwestern is not statistically a good run offense, they'll lean hard on Bowser to close it out. ATS: Northwestern, SU: Northwestern
No. 7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech
When: Saturday 8 p.m. ET | Where: Lubbock, Texas | line: Oklahoma -13.5
Why it's listed: Obviously, the potential for a shootout is insanely high. This is a game of two top-10 scoring offenses and these are the types of games when Red Raiders coach Kliff Kingsbury pulls out an ace or two that he's been working on during the week.
Texas Tech's key to the game: The Red Raiders will not hold Oklahoma to a bunch of three-and-outs, but they're good when it counts. Texas Tech has one of the best red defenses not just in the Big 12, but in the country with a 48.15 touchdown percentage.
Oklahoma's key to the game: There is no scout team who can prepare for defense Kyler. He's a lethal scrambler and the way he makes plays makes it impossible for him. Texas Tech will take its swings with pressure, but it will be better. You come to the king, you best not miss.
Pick: Oklahoma's loss to Texas earlier in October was first and foremost a matchup problem. Texas Tech does not run the type of power offs that can give the Sooners Fits. This one will be fun and borderline ridiculous, but Oklahoma just got too much to try to defend. ATS: Texas Tech, SU: Oklahoma
Cal at No. 8 Washington State
When: Saturday 10:45 pm ET | Where: Pullman, Washington | line: Washington State -10.5
Why it's listed: Oh heck yes, give me that sweet # Pac12AfterDark nightcap on a busy Saturday. Cal, fresh off an upset vs. Washington, best of the world – 11th overall, by S & P + – and have played in the past two weeks. Washington State is entering the part of the season where it has a huge target on its back.
Cal's key to the game: Stopping the pass, obviously. The good news is the Golden Bears are No. 1 in the Pac-12 in this category and with 12 interceptions. They may even need a pick-six / non-offensive touchdown to pull within real striking distance.
Washington State's key to game: An overlooked aspect of Washington's state of affairs is that it can not be solved 60 minutes of football. They're streaky. That's not uncharacteristic for a Mike Leach team, but it's something to keep an eye on. If quarterback Gardner Minshew starts cooking, it might be lights out for Cal.
Pick: The Bears are pesky enough defensively to frustrate Washington State, but the Cougars do not have the same offensive problems Washington does. Cal, on the other hand, can only win this game if it's a defensive struggle. ATS: Cal, SU: Washington State
What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what will get stunned by a huge underdog? Visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $ 4,000 in profit over the past three seasons.
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