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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – While US President Donald Trump is resuming sanctions against Iran, the success of his efforts to limit his nuclear, missile and regional activities may depend on his flexibility, including many of his requests to persuade Tehran to negotiate.
US President Donald Trump delivers a speech at a campaign rally in Estero, Florida, United States, October 31, 2018. REUTERS / Carlos Barria
Washington will reintroduce Monday sanctions targeting Iran's largest sector – oil – and US officials have indicated that there is a need for flexibility to ensure that world markets are well-stocked to prevent price spikes.
By abandoning the international nuclear deal reached between Iran and 2015, Trump and his key collaborators have touted the new imposition of economic sanctions on Iran as part of a campaign to "Maximum pressure" to impose a change in Iranian behavior.
What Trump wants from Tehran, however, is perceived by the former leaders as a "maximalist" stance that includes the end of uranium enrichment, giving UN inspectors access to all sites across Iran and ceasing to support Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Palestinian Hamas militant. group.
On May 21, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listed 12 requests that also aimed to halt the development of nuclear-capable missiles, the withdrawal of forces under his command in Syria and the cessation of threats to his neighbors.
"These are maximalist claims and no Iranian government would want or accept them," said Robert Einhorn, former US chief of the Brookings Institution.
Trump wants the Iranian government to capitulate or collapse, said Einhorn.
"They will not bang," he said. "But if the administration begins to show flexibility … it is possible that the Iranian regime agrees to start talks."
Such flexibility could include an indication that Iran could limit, but not eliminate, uranium enrichment and that it could allow for greater inspections than in the agreement of the United States. 2015, even inspections anywhere anytime and anywhere desired by Washington.
The sanctions that resumed Monday include those aimed at forcing Iranian oil customers such as China, India and Turkey to cut back on their oil purchases, ideally at zero, although the White House seems to recognize it.
"We want to reach the maximum of pressure, but we do not want to harm friends and allies," White House National Security advisor John Bolton said on Wednesday in a hint that Washington could provide "exceptions" to these sanctions for countries that significantly reduce their budgets. Iranian purchases.
Another penalty would be blacklisting about 20 previously sanctioned Iranian banks, which could cause the Brussels-based SWIFT financial messaging system to disconnect them, further impeding Iran's trade with the world.
When he abandoned the Iranian nuclear deal, Trump promised to "impose the most severe economic sanction" on Iran, saying it would make them want a new deal. "When they do, I'm ready, willing and able," he said.
The lack of confidence, given the repeal of the 2015 agreement by Trump, and the Iranian conviction that its real goal, despite denials from the United States, is to bring down its government.
Richard Nephew, a former US official at Columbia University, summarized Tehran's position on the talks as follows: "Why bother?
Iran was more likely to try to escape and resist American sanctions by adopting the following position: "If we fall, at least we will not fall on our knees, we will die standing up," said Nephew. .
Iran may try to survive for two years the contraction of oil revenues to see if Trump is re-elected and then decides on the talks.
"They will be reluctant to do so by a position of abject weakness," said Jon Alterman, former US chief of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Before speaking, Iran would likely increase support to regional proxies or conduct missile tests to create chips that it could concede during a negotiation.
"If I had to bet, all of this would happen – the United States will tighten the screws, the Iranians will do more things that worry the Trump administration, and the two sides will talk to each other," said Alterman.
Report by Arshad Mohammed and Lesley Wroughton; Edited by Mary Milliken and Grant McCool
