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Soldiers set up protection wire on bridge between United States and Mexico Friday in Hidalgo, Texas (John Moore / Getty Images)
Nick Miroff
Journalist in charge of immigration, drug trafficking and national security law enforcement
Missy Ryan
Reporter covering the Pentagon, military issues and national security
Military planners predict that only a small percentage of Central American migrants traveling in caravans, termed "invasion" by President Trump, will reach the US border, even as a force of more than 7,000 soldiers in active service will mobilize to prevent them from entering the United States. States.
According to military planning documents, about 20% of the estimated 7,000 migrants passing through Mexico are likely to end their trip. The unclassified report was obtained and published by Newsweek on Thursday. If the assessment of the army is accurate, it would mean that the United States places five soldiers at the border for each member of the caravan that should arrive there.
"Based on historical trends, it is estimated that only a small percentage of migrants will likely reach the border," the report says. It was prepared by US Army North, a component of US Northern Command, which oversees Operation Faithful Patriot.
The assessment also indicates that military planners are concerned about the presence of "unregulated armed militia" groups coming to the border in areas where US troops will operate.
The Washington Post has not been able to independently confirm the authenticity of the report. Sold on Friday, military officials have not disputed its veracity, but have refused to answer questions regarding its content.
[Border deployment puts Mattis and the military in political crosshairs]
In addressing immigration as the main theme of his campaign ahead of Tuesday's election, Trump described the caravans – at least four of them were formed, even if they are hundreds of kilometers away – as a grave danger to US national security, claiming that they are composed of "strangers". Middle East, "hardened criminals and" very tough fighters ". He also insists that the number of migrants heading north is much larger than the estimates put forward by US and Mexican authorities.
The military assessment does not support any of these claims.
The report, dated October 27, states that caravan members should not be arriving for at least two to four weeks.
Among those traveling, there is "a limited number of Bangladeshi, Haitian and African individuals," one reads. There is no mention of countries in the Middle East.
In the most plausible scenario for military planners, caravans will continue to lose their size as they move north without any terrorist infiltration, which could cause a "balloon effect" on the activity. of smuggler as traffickers attempt to exploit the diversion created by Trump 's attention to migrants.
In its "most dangerous" assessment, the caravan "would develop significantly" and would be exploited by terrorists and traffickers, which would increase "cross-border commitments". The evaluation does not assign numerical probability to these scenarios.
Trump said this week he wants to send up to 15,000 soldiers to the border to prepare for caravans. Deployment appears to be the largest peace-time mobilization of US troops active on the border for at least a century.
[Trump’s 15,000 border troops would top the number stationed in 160 countries]
According to the army's assessment, the presence of "unregulated militia members who self-deploy at the border, allegedly in support of US Customs protection and border protection" ranks first among potential dangers that US personnel face.
It is estimated that 200 members of the militia could come forward while troops are in the area.
"They operate under the guise of citizen patrols," the report says, warning that "unregulated militias have stolen National Guard equipment during deployments."
The assessment does not give more details about these incidents, but border patrol officials have also warned landowners in the area of the possibility of seeing militias carry weapons on their property in the coming weeks.
Protesters and "anarchists" arriving along the border are also at risk, according to the report. "Previous protests for immigration caravans or immigration enforcement have taken place in the United States," the report says. "Normally peaceful unless extreme right or left groups are present."
Dan Lamothe contributed to this report.
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