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UFC 230 MATCHUPS
A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Saturday's UFC 230 card at Madison Square Garden in New York, with picks from the Review-Journal's Adam Hill and Heidi Fang:
Daniel Cormier (21-1, 1 No Contest) vs. Derrick Lewis (21-5, 1 No Contest)
Class: For Cormier's heavyweight title
line: Cormier -650
storyline: Cormier Lonnie Brock Lesnar or Jon Jones was ready to come back, but it was decided to go back to the next day. Derrick Lewis when this event needed a headliner. Cormier saw it as a chance to make a quick payday against an athletically-inferior opponent. It's not without some risk, though. Lewis has won nine of his last 10 years, and has had his last-second win over Alexander Volkov last month in a fight he was losing for nearly 15 minutes. Lewis has the proverbial puncher's luck and it's probably his only shot. He will need to change the fight. Cormier has many more paths to victory and should have a massive cardio edge. The one question may be surgically-repaired but Cormier insists it will be fine. Cormier has never lost a round in 14 heavyweight fights.
Hill's Pick: Cormier by second-round submission
Fang's Pick: Cormier by fourth-round knockout
Chris Weidman (14-3) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (25-6, 1 No Contest)
Class: Middleweight
line: Weidman -190
storyline: Weidman expected a showdown with fellow champion Luke Rockhold, but Rockhold was hurt during training camp and was forced to pull out. This is one of the most accomplished grapplers in the sport, but it is actually a decent matchup for Weidman. While he is known for his wrestling and has developed a striker, Weidman is actually an elite grappler. Souza can submit anyone at any time, but Weidman should be able to neutralize his jiu-jitsu and possesses a clear edge in wrestling and technical striker. Souza is a bit wild in his striking, though he does have power. Weidman will have to avoid that.
Hill's Pick: Weidman by decision
Fang's Pick: Weidman by decision
David Branch (21-4) vs. Jared Cannonier (10-4)
Class: Middleweight
line: Branch -350
storyline: Breaking up the card with a big chance against Souza, but lost out on the fight when Souza moved up the card to face Weidman. He'll need to avoid letting that disappointment affect his performance. Has had a striker, but should return to his roots against a questionable cardio. Cannonier has luck to land something. Could not win on the feet, but is unlikely to lose on the mat. He will probably look at it early and often.
Hill's Pick: Branch by second-round submission
Fang's Pick: Cannonier by second-round knockout
Karl Roberson (6-1) vs. Jack Marshman (22-7)
Class: Middleweight
line: Roberson -275
storyline: Both are aggressive strikers, though Roberson is a bit more well-rounded. Marshman will try to make this a brawl. He'll want to fight and will be more than happy to be in the big shots. Roberson will try to maintain fundamentals and keep more of a distance. He's capable of picking Marshman apart from the outside, but he could also pick it up and get a takedown. Marshman is not known for his grappling. Roberson just has more paths to a win, which is why he is favored. Marshman has an edge in experience, however, and probably has a better chance than the line would indicate.
Hill's Pick: Marshman by second-round knockout
Fang's Pick: Marshman by second-round submission
Derek Brunson (18-6) vs. Israel Adesanya (14-0)
Class: Middleweight
line: Adesanya -335
storyline: Adesanya is a flashy striker who is quickly making a splash in the UFC. His ability to combine a dynamic and explosive style with an entertaining personality makes the New Zealander one of the most intriguing young stars to emerge at middleweight in quite some time. This is a huge test, however. Brunson's wrestling could prove to be Adesanya's kryptonite and he has enough power to be a problem on the feet. Adesanya has the ability to make its opponents look and feel like a lot of people. Brunson, but there is far too much value on the subject.
Hill's Pick: Adesanya by third-round knockout
Fang's Pick: Adesanya by third-round knockout
More MMA: CoverageTheCage.com @RJ_Sports on Twitter.
Contact Adam Hill at [email protected] or 702-277-8028. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on Twitter.
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