Overview of the 411 MMA Round Table – UFC 230: Cormier Vs. Lewis

He'll lock you up in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

THE PRELIMINARY MAP:
The first four preliminary matches of the UFC Fight Pass, are based on Fox Sports 1.
Heavyweight: Adam Wieczorek against Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Jonathan Solomon: Adam Wieczorek, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Decision
Robert Winfree: Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Decision

Balance Weight (137 lb) Combat: Brian Kelleher vs. Montel Jackson

Jonathan Solomon: Brian Kelleher, Submission, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Brian Kelleher, decision
Robert Winfree: Brian Kelleher, Submission, Round 2

Featherweight tip: Shane Burgos vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Jonathan Solomon: Shane Burgos, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Shane Burgos, Decision
Robert Winfree: Shane Burgos, TKO, Round 3

Light fight: Matt Frevola against Lando Vannata

Jonathan Solomon: Matt Frevola, TKO, Round 3
Jeffrey Harris: Lando Vannata, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Lando Vannata, TKO, Tower 2

Welterweight: Ben Saunders vs. Lyman Good

Jonathan Solomon: Lyman Good, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Ben Saunders, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Lyman Good, Decision

Featherweight tip: Julio Arce vs. Sheymon Moraes

Jonathan Solomon: Julio Arce, Submission, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Julio Arce, Decision
Robert Winfree: Sheymon Moraes, TKO, Tower 2

Weight of the catch (127.2 lb) Fight: Sijara Eubanks against Roxanne Modafferi

Jonathan Solomon: Roxanne Modafferi, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Sijara Eubanks, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Roxanne Modafferi, Decision

Featherweight tip: Jason Knight versus Jordan Rinaldi

Jonathan Solomon: Jordan Rinaldi, Submission, Round 1
Jeffrey Harris: Jordan Rinaldo, Decision
Robert Winfree: Jason Knight, decision

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THE MAIN CARD:
Average weight: Derek Brunson against Israel Adesanya

Jonathan Solomon: Derek Brunson plays the role of guardian of middleweight or can he leave Israel Adesanya the first loss of his career? In eight of Brunson's last nine bouts, the knockouts ended the action (six wins for him). There is a good chance that the pattern will be maintained here because Israel has proved to be a dangerous forward with 12 KOs to his credit. Brunson has the power to finish the fight, but he should not interfere with Adesanya. If Israel manages to stay away from his back, there is no reason to think that he can not distinguish Brunson from the distance.

Winner: Israel Adesanya, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: Israel Adesanya, an undefeated middleweight prospect, wins a strong competitive lead over No. 6 seed Derek Brunson. Brunson is looking to recover from his recent defeat against Jacare. This is a real middleweight contest and Adesanya is undergoing a real test. Even if Brunson is sometimes inconsistent, I favor him to win this. Adesanya has never faced anyone who has both the power of KO and wrestling skills like Brunson. While Brunson was a Division II wrestler, Adesanya is more of an attacker. Brunson will win the tie and win.

Winner: Derek Brunson, Decision

Robert Winfree: These two have been clinging for a while and I tend to think that it's Derek Brunson who will decide what to do next. If Brunson is trying to fight, he has the ability to win because he is a very underrated MMA wrestler, so he's looking to hit, I think he has a lot of problems. Brunson has the power, but his typing technique seems to switch between passable and literally in the lead with his imploring chin of eating pawns and Adesanya hurts him constantly. I'm going with Adesanya because Brunson's strike has been very bad so far and I'm not sure he'll be disciplined enough to withstand a heavy attack.

Winner: Israel Adesanya, TKO, Tower 2

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Average weight: Karl Roberson against Jack Marshman

Jonathan Solomon: New Jersey's Karl Roberson will be competing locally for the first time in three years and the crowd should be much more friendly than his last fight in Brazil. Cezar Ferreira smothered him in his first defeat. Compared to Roberson's seven professional fights (6-1), this bout marks Jack Marshman's 30th battle. He also lost to Brazil on his last outing, stifled by Antonio Carlos Junior last October. He was due to fight in February but was removed from the show a few days earlier due to concerns about weight loss. Back in action this week, Marshman will likely attempt to force action in the next rounds. Roberson made end-of-first-round fights a specialty, including three wins in less than two minutes.

Winner: Karl Roberson, Submission, Round 1

Jeffrey Harris: This really seems like a strange choice for the main board. Maybe the UFC leaders hope to have another type of fight with Performance of the Night here. Roberson participated in Dana White's Contender series, so maybe that's why he's on the main map here. Both fighters have bid losses, so I would not be surprised if we find ourselves in a situation where fighters are cautious and are struggling not to lose here. I choose the most dangerous striker, here in Marshman, to dominate and finally win the fight.

Winner: Jack Marshman, Decision

Robert Winfree: Strange choice for a main card battle and a bit of a loser leaves the city while both guys are on the sidelines of the uselessness of the UFC. I tend to prefer just a little Marshman, but as in most fights of this level, it's kind of a shit prediction.

Winner: Jack Marshman, TKO, Tower 1

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Average weight: David Branch vs. Jared Cannonier

Jonathan Solomon: The last time David Branch competed in New York, it was at the Theater at MSG that he defended the WSOF middleweight title in his last fight in the promotion. Nearly two years later, he will have a chance to fight in the MSG this week. He remains as dangerous as his average weight in the Top 10, a combination of deadly jiu-jitsu and effective strikes does not leave him much weaknesses. Of course, his win against Thiago Santos in April was his first knockout victory in about four years, but he still has not been stopped due to strikes. That fact will not change after UFC 230. Jared Cannonier is probably fighting for his place in the lineup since he has a 1-3 record in his last four fights, which marks his debut as than average weight (he entered the UFC as a heavyweight!). Canononier will be outperformed by Branch and will only participate in this match due to a reshuffle two weeks before the fight night.

Winner: David Branch, Submission, Series 2

Jeffrey Harris: In general, I consider this a win-win for David Branch. I think Branch is not good enough to be an elite fighter or a title contender, but I think he's struggling to defeat an opponent like Jared Cannonier. I do not foresee a nice fight or a barn burner here. Branch is likely to be cautious and avoid Cannonier making a decision here. Branch is not an elite, but he is complete and very experienced. This will serve him well against Cannonier, who has generally been mediocre throughout his run at the UFC with a 3-4 record inside Octagon.

Winner: David Branch, Decision

Robert Winfree: It will be the beginning of average weight of Cannonier and it tackles a difficult task with David Branch, high eternal combatant. Branch's only defeat in recent years has been Luke Rockhold's solid victory. It is possible that Branch never reaches the top five, but below it is difficult at best and nightmare at worst. Branch is primarily a wrestler, but that should not ignore his strike, which has gone well in recent years. Cannonier fights like a maniac, he tries to fight and I do not think Branch will be a volunteer dance partner in this regard and should fight against Cannonier.

Winner: David Branch, Decision

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Average weight: Chris Weidman vs. Ronaldo Souza

Jonathan Solomon: Chris Weidman is 34 years old. Where is the time? His first historic victory on Anderson Silva goes back more than five years and since then he has only 4-3 left. To his credit, he ended a run of three defeats last summer by smothering Kelvin Gastelum. His injuries have prevented him from playing since that time, but he is back in a match against another top contender. Jacare will turn 39 in December and will seek to avoid consecutive losses, which he has never experienced. He lost a split decision on Gastelum in the spring and shows no signs of slowing down. He remains as dangerous as anyone. The slowing and rusting issues apply more to Weidman and I have more confidence in Souza not to be stunned, submissive or dismounted en route to a loss.

Winner: Jacare Souza, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: Honestly, I love this fight even more than Chris Weidman versus Luke Rockhold. It's a fight I wanted to see for the middleweight title instead of Weidman vs. Rockhold in 2015. Honestly, I think it's a terrible match-up for Weidman. Even if Jacare slows down, I still favor him to win this fight. Jacare is constantly underestimated and neglected. He should have been fighting for the UFC title a long time ago. I would choose him anyway to win if he was to fight Robert Whittaker tomorrow. Weidman is a tough and resilient fighter with good fight and knockout power. However, he is also very sloppy. It will finally be a matter of time before Jacare catches Weidman with a solid shot and transitions to his world-class BJJ. Then he will cut off Weidman's arm. Game, together, match. Jacare wins by submission.

Winner: Ronaldo Souza, Submission, Round 1

Robert Winfree: I had been looking forward to this fight for a while. Souza probably would have had to fight for the title when Weidman was champion and his chances appealed to me at the time, but that was a few years ago. Now, Souza was finished by the best middleweight in the world, Robert Whittaker, and lost in the fight against Kelvin Gastelum, while Gastelum was essentially on one leg during parts of the fight. For his part, Weidman recently broke a series of three consecutive defeats in which he was beaten. It's a bit sad that a fight of this caliber is decided by the one who slipped the farthest, because it was a dream fight not long ago. Both men are competent forwards with good power, although Souza is a little more diversified in his attack. Both men are phenomenal wrestlers, although Souza is the most accomplished jiu-jitsu player, while Weidman has a fight advantage. Both men need a high position to compete at best, because neither has a dynamic guard. Weidman has a slight cardiovascular benefit since Souza has shown a dubious gas tank in the past and Souza is his eldest competitor. I went here and there but I lean towards Souza, it's a pity that he's missing the title as he was finished by the current champion and lost to the next title challenger, but I still think that he is one of the best in the world.

Winner: Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Decision

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UFC Heavyweight Championship: Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis

Jonathan Solomon: Cormier is one of the greatest MMA fighters in history. In heavyweight or light weight, it has proven to be a step above all unnamed Jon Jones. Undefeated as a heavyweight, he has always had a crazy combination of speed, power and this incredible fight allows him to be always in control. Derrick Lewis is a prolific striker with exceptional knockout power. He was off to a unanimous decision against Alexander Volkov against UFC 229 when he scored a knockout with 11 seconds left in the fight. Now he is fighting for a championship for the first time since 2013. Of course, he could hit Cormier's chin hard and become the new champion. However, he will not do it. If he can not stun Cormier, he has no way to win this fight. What he has for him is that it's a five-round fight, which means he has 25 minutes to launch shots . His conditioning was a concern and what improvement could he have done in less than four weeks since his last battle? Cormier could turn around him even before arriving at the fourth round. The most interesting aspect of the fight will be the aggressiveness of Cormier.

Winner: Daniel Cormier, TKO, Round 2

Jeffrey Harris: I can not in all conscience choose Derrick Lewis to win this victory. Lewis is somehow the man of the moment. He is a friendly fighter for the fans and has captivated the imagination of the people with his message "My balls have been very promising". The UFC hits while the iron is hot. Lewis is very tough, and he tends to do better over the fight. However, I do not see how he would win this fight. The only way for me to see him win, is if Daniel Cormier fights stupid and sloppy, what he usually does not do. The only man on the planet who has shown himself capable of beating Cormier is Jon Jones, and even then there are always shenanigans. Cormier is proven that he can take difficult shots of dangerous attackers. Cormier will punish Lewis with his fight and finally slam him and pound him or slap him with a RNC inside two rounds.

Winner: Daniel Cormier, Submission, Round 2

Robert Winfree: Boy made it happen at the last minute, and it feels like it. Lewis is a very good character, I think the UFC should caged him for all his events in order to replace at least half of the list of players for their interview. He is also the generic heavyweight fighter with solid power, mediocre technique, a faulty fuel tank and a tough fighting history with moments that have involved the crowd. Lewis has the mythical luck of punchers, but in this case he is slightly inferior to the average puncher's luck. Lewis averages 20 strikes per round, mainly because his fuel tank is too bad. Think about it, 20 shots in five minutes on average. Cormier can be put in place, Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson both had great success in hugging Cormier, then capitalizing on his predictable body movements and defense. bypass Cormier's guardian mummy. Lewis has a decent top kick in the first round, but he only has one or two per fight and he never puts them in place. Lewis is also not very good at stopping grounding, let alone a fighter of the caliber of Daniel Cormier. Lewis is not behind his back, and his game is to sit upright without fear that his back will be caught just because there is a shortage of jiu-jitsu level high enough for the heavyweights to punish him systematically for his tactical error. Cormier is not a jiu-jitsu scholar or anything, in fact, he's reluctant to take over the traditional way, but he's probably good enough to get there and threaten Lewis at one of his sit-ups. I just can not choose Cormier here. In fact, I can not usually fight against Cormier if he is not against Jon Jones since he has beaten the only heavyweight I would have (and would have) chosen to beat him.

Winner: Daniel Cormier, Submission, Round 2

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