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ISTANBUL: The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could change the power dynamics in the Middle East by boosting Turkey's influence at the expense of Saudi Arabia in the leadership race of the Islamic world, analysts said.
This certainly seems to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, whom Saudi Arabia and its allies, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider to be a terrorist group.
The assassination inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already seriously tarnished Saudi Arabia's reputation.
But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the de facto leader of the oil-rich Gulf nation, known by his MBS initials, which could permanently undermine Riyadh's influence in the region. .
After initially insisting that Khashoggi leave the consulate safe and sound, claiming that he had died as a result of a fight, the Saudi regime finally declared that he had been killed by a "fraudulent operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some of whom were linked to the Crown Prince.
According to analysts, Erdogan could use the resulting crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, possibly even leading the royal family to remove him from office – although this seems unlikely.
"The assassination of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and make Turkey a new leader in the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of the Middle Program. East and North Africa at Chatham House.
"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geopolitical gamble for Turkey and, until now, it looks like it's playing the game with flying colors. But Turkey alone will not be able to press for the removal of the MBS. The ball is in the American camp, "she added.
'Opportunity' for Erdogan
For Erdogan, the promotion of the Muslim Brotherhood – which Saudi Arabia sought to marginalize in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi – is at the heart of this struggle for power.
The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh to his ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt since 2017.
"I think Erdogan sees it as an opportunity to counter a triple deal in the Middle East opposed to his policy. This triple deal is composed of MBS, the Crown Prince of MBZ (Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt of Sisi, said Soner Cagaptay, director of the research program on Turkey at the Washington Institute.
"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policy of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now, Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because the MBS is vulnerable. "But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Center for the Economy and Foreign Policy, said:" It remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to take advantage of this conjuncture and make it a permanent regional advantage at the expense of the economy. 'Saudi Arabia ".
Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said that the Khashoggi case was "the last chapter of Turkey and that Saudi Arabia was fighting over which country would be best" to lead the Muslim world.
"Reduce MBS to size"
"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to reduce Prince Mohammad bin Salman and, by extension, Saudi Arabia, to size," added Heras.
By not directly designating the Crown Prince as Khashoggi's leader, Erdogan seeks to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the think-tank of the French Institute of Strategic and International Affairs based in Paris.
"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken the MBS on the international scene, so he's running the dice of these days trying to figure out how to maximize his profits after this huge Saudi blunder." he declared.
While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West – particularly the United States – is wary of this group and wants to put pressure on the Crown Prince to end the war in Yemen and lift the blockade on Qatar, experts said.
"I hope that the blockade on Doha will end in the near future and that the Saudis will find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Bitar noted that the US administration was counting on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as for containing Iran, long a Saudi enemy.
Washington could also push the Crown Prince toward "a rapprochement with Israel and maintaining a fierce line of dialogue with Iran," Bitar added.
Posted in Dawn, November 4, 2018
