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According to EU officials, Theresa May's chances of concluding an agreement with Brussels at the Irish border that she would sell to the government and parliament would be "50-50", as tough talks enter in their last straight line.
The UK negotiating team and the European Commission's working group, led by Michel Barnier, are expected to enter a secret phase called "tunnel" this week, but senior European officials involved in the talks have warned that the red lines in competition remained "inconsistent" in key areas.
The British government announced on Friday that it was ready to "make decisive progress" on the backstop issue of Northern Ireland, in the hope that Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, could then convene an extraordinary summit on Brexit at the end of the month. the month to seal the agreement.
A Whitehall source said that if enough ground was set in the coming days, a new tentative date of November 22 would be announced for a meeting of EU state and government leaders.
Downing Street insisted that an agreement was not ready to be signed, in response to information received over the weekend about reaching an agreement.
"We are not sitting on whether we have signed a secret deal," said source No. 10. "We are not on the eve of a seismic change."
Some of the highest levels of the government fear that if progress is not agreed by Tuesday, when the month of May will see its ministers and Parliament stop, the cabinet may not have a direct contribution before the announcement of the summit.
"The reality is that we need a November summit more than the EU," said a government source. They suggested that an agreement reached in December would imply not only a subsequent parliamentary vote, but would also require spending for planning in the absence of agreement, as well as for changing the roles of the hundreds. of officials.
Government insiders believe that it is possible that progress will be made in order to convene an emergency summit on Friday, suggesting that it is possible that the firm is not directly involved if that is the case. was at the last minute. "These are important issues," said the source.
European officials and diplomats have warned of optimism expressed by some as to the imminence of a breakthrough, calling "50-50" the chances of reaching a deal that responds. to the needs of both sides.
Brussels has so far insisted that the withdrawal agreement should contain a legal text that could keep Northern Ireland in force in the customs union and the single market at the same time. exit from Britain.
The committee accepted the possibility of referencing and prioritizing a United Kingdom customs union in the agreement, with a separate treaty, negotiated during the transition period and completing the details.
An EU official suggested that such a customs agreement covering the whole of the UK could not replace the specific text in Northern Ireland when it was in the UK. was a permanent agreement, and even in this case, the commitment of such a commitment would pose serious legal problems.
"The thinking of the commission is evolving. According to what they originally proposed, the United Kingdom is moving towards the United Kingdom. Flexibility, yes, but if this flexibility will lead to an agreement, it's something else, "said the manager.
The source said any hope of abolishing customs arrangements specific to Northern Ireland would involve a "huge leap on the British side".
The official suggested that May must "calculate what is marketable and how she sells it, but that does not fit with Bojo's British bully." [Boris Johnson]".
Even with a customs agreement covering the entire United Kingdom at the heart of the disengagement agreement, it would require specific elements in Northern Ireland in terms of regulatory and customs controls for the single market.
Exporters entering the Republic from Northern Ireland would normally have to prove that their goods come from a country that is in customs union with the block and that they benefit from a derogation from rules of origin.
Fabian Zuleeg, director general of the European Policy Center, said that he did not think it would be possible for the EU to meet the Prime Minister's demands and that the lack of realism in the UK increased the chances of a rule breaking. treat Brexit.
He said: "I do not see that the EU is willing to accept an agreement without the specific support for Northern Ireland.
"What concerns me is that people make very categorical statements that no British prime minister can sign a dossier on Northern Ireland, which seems to go against what was agreed in December. It's not the government, it's the opposition. This makes me think that we are going very quickly to a "no deal". "
European diplomats have also criticized the Prime Minister's proposal that important progress has been made in the political declaration on the future trade agreement, the economic aspects being described as a "raw nerve" where both sides "speak of different things.
The Prime Minister is seeking to engage in arrangements, including a common settlement that could allow for "friction free trade".
Barnier has said time and time again that this is not possible, and diplomats said the most likely outcome would be a weaker commitment to make trade flows "as smooth as possible".
Number 10 said he would not accept an agreement as far-reaching as some reports have suggested, including May's Checkers plan for a "common rule book", while leaving the door open to a possible Canadian style agreement.
"We said we would propose a" definite "partnership in the future," said the Whitehall source. "It will not be all for all men. It will be a detailed political agreement that we can use to shape our future business relationships. "
