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Souad Mekhennet
Reporter covering national security, the Middle East, North Africa, terrorism, Europe.
US and Israeli officials fear that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will have less leeway to continue the gradual warming of relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors because of the political consequences of the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The fate of the Crown Prince, the de facto ruler of the kingdom, has implications for the Israeli-Arab peace package developed by the Trump government and for cooperation between Iranian opponents.
"We must not let such action go unanswered," Israeli ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer told an audience last week, referring to the killing of Khashoggi. "But we must also be careful not to throw a relationship that has strategic value."
"I think the administration, when she knows all the facts, will have to decide, how can she, on the one hand, clarify that this action is unacceptable, but also do not throw the prince with the l & # 39; 39, bath water, let's say that way. "
President Trump has described Saudi Arabia as a key to regional stability and a valuable buyer of US arms, but has scarcely publicly commented on the role that a diminished role could play for the United States. Kingdom or Muhammad for Israel or Arab-Israeli peace. Trump's chief envoy, son-in-law Jared Kushner, however, discussed with diplomats and others how the crown prince's position might affect US plans, people familiar with the talks said.
[Saudi crown price told White House that slain writer was a ‘dangerous Islamist’]
The Sultan of Obman Qaboos bin Said, Al Said, meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Muscat, Oman, on October 26, 2018. (Hamid Al-Qasmi / EPA-EFE / REX / Shutterstock)
Saudi Arabia has acknowledged that Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident journalist and contributor to the Washington Post, hadLumnist, was killed at the consulate of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul last month. But the kingdom's changing explanations have angered and worried some Trump administration officials, who say the episode may leave the prince with less means to lead politically or culturally difficult changes.
Mohammed denounced the murder and denied any involvement, but the US statements did not exonerate him. Current and former US officials have said the murderous operation could not have happened without the Prince's knowledge and approval.
The Trump administration has canceled visas or rendered trips ineligible for 21 Saudi nationals implicated by Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the death of Khashoggi.
Israeli officials have increasingly emphasized the need to separate murder from the strategic value of the kingdom.
"What happened in the Istanbul consulate has been horrible and must be duly taken into account," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday. "However, I say at the same time that it is very important for the stability of the world, the region and the world, that Saudi Arabia remains stable."
"I think we have to find a way to achieve both of these goals because I think the biggest problem is Iran," he said.
Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid Bin Ahmad al-Khalifa tweeted that Netanyahu had shown "a clear vision of the stability of the region and the role of Saudi Arabia in preserving this stability".
[[[[Netanyahu calls Khashoggi assassination "horrific" but stresses Saudi stability]
Mohammed, known by his MBS initials, was the figurehead of a timid and risky strategy aimed at becoming more open to Israeli-Saudi secret or covert cooperation. US officials have hoped that it could also be the pivot of a new Arab transactional relationship with Israel that would underpin the Trump peace program.
It has always been a long shot, and it has been placed in a heavy doubt during the summer.
Saudi King Salman, the prince's father, assured Palestinians and their Arab supporters in July that he would not accept a peace plan that excludes a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. The previous month, Saudi and Arab leaders told Kushner that the Trump administration's decision to transfer the US embassy to disputed East Jerusalem had undermined their support for a plan that seemed imminent.
"Israelis feel that the MBS is much better for their own purposes," said a Saudi government official. "It is true that MBS has repeatedly mentioned that he would like to see a different Middle East and was not as sympathetic to the Palestinians as they might have wished."
And about Iran, "the MBS gave Israel more security in the sense that it saw Iran as the biggest threat," said the official. The official, along with other representatives of the Middle East and elsewhere, spoke of the condition of anonymity to protect diplomatic discussions.
Lawyer Jason D. Greenblatt, Trump's chief negotiator, was in Israel this weekend amid signs suggesting that the plan, set apart several times in recent months, could to be published soon.
During his last meeting with Netanyahu in late September, Trump announced that the plan would be made public in two to four months. Khashoggi was killed a week after this meeting, and it is still unclear whether this has changed the White House calendar.
This plan should offer the possibility of a comprehensive settlement agreement between Israel and the Arab neighbors. Saudi pressure on Palestinians to agree to a settlement is considered crucial.
The Trump peace package has been revised several times, including a withdrawal of a plan to ease the ground for talks and to pressure the Palestinians to agree to an agreement, a diplomat said. stranger to the fact of aspects of the thought of the White House.
The crown prince was supposed to be a key figure in this approach, but he had already "had his wings cut off" a bit about the embassy move when the Khashoggi affair added new questions about his influence, said the diplomat.
"MBS will not do the hard work that was expected before, and they decide what to do next," said the diplomat.
An Israeli government official said Saudi Arabia already played a vital role in allowing or encouraging small diplomatic advances over the past month.
Saudi Arabia, the most powerful state in the Arab Gulf, has sent signals to Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to silence Israel's diplomatic overtures, the official said.
"All the ongoing proceedings between Israel and the Gulf States, in particular, would not have been possible without the support of the Saudis," the official said.
"And the change of mind within Saudi Arabia, in our view, has a lot to do with the MBS. He opened the door to more visible and official relations with the countries of the region. "
Netanyahu returned to Oman at the end of last month, the highest-level contact between countries since 1996. Talks focused on prospects for peace and on Iran, diplomats said.
Netanyahu's office described the trip as "no decisive step in implementing Prime Minister Netanyahu's policy to strengthen relations with states in the region while harnessing Israel's security benefits." , technology and economics ".
The goal is to combine the forces against Iran and open up Israel's strong economy to greater investment and the best partnership of Arab countries.
"We welcome the warming links and growing cooperation between our friends in the region," Greenblatt tweeted about the visit. "This is a useful step for our peace efforts and it is essential to create a climate of stability, security and prosperity between Israelis, Palestinians and their neighbors. Looking forward to seeing other meetings like this one! "
Israel's ambassador, Dermer, told an audience of the Beth Israel congregation in Houston that he was "more optimistic than I ever was about the prospects for reconciliation in our region," because of this that he called a change of Arab thought concerning a strategic relationship with Israel.
"I see a change in the Arab world in general. . . for the first time in 70 years, "said Dermer. "Arab governments recognize that Israel is not the enemy, but a potential partner to deal with Iran, radical Sunni Islam."
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