Poll: Generic ballot tightens on eve of mid-term

The poll POLITICO / Morning Consult final before the midterm elections shows that the Republicans have cut the lead of the Democrats on the generic ballot of Congress.

According to the survey, 43% of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district – a little more than the 40% who would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of registered voters are undecided.

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Among those who say they are very likely to vote or have already voted, Democrats top 4%, from 47% to 43%.

For Democrats, this is a slightly lower advantage than other public polls that took place immediately before the elections, but this is consistent with a general trend towards a modest tightening of the general vote.

In an ABC News / Washington Post survey conducted from October 29 to November 29. 1, Democrats are leading with 7 points on registered voters and 8 points on potential voters, compared with 11 points and 13 points in October, respectively.

A NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll, conducted from November 1-3, revealed that Democrats were ahead by 6 points on registered voters and by 7 points on potential voters, up from 7 points and 9 points respectively in October.

The poll POLITICO / Morning Consult was conducted between these two surveys, from October 30 to November 29. 2. The Democrats' 3-point lead over all registered voters is lower than the 8-point advance from the previous poll, which ran from October 25 to 30.

Despite the close overall result, the poll shows that Democrats are more grouped behind their party than Republicans. Nearly nine out of ten Democratic voters, or 89%, say they will vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district. In comparison, only 77% of GOP voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate. The independents are divided: 35% for the Democrat, 32% for the Republican and 33% undecided. (Republicans outnumber Democrats in the survey sample, 39% to 35%.)

Asked to predict the results of the mid-term elections, voters are divided: 35% think they will win the House of Democrats, and the same percentage chooses Republicans to retain the majority. Three in ten voters, or 30%, are undecided.

But more voters, 46%, expect Republicans to retain control of the Senate. Only 24% think the Democrats will win the Senate.

More than four in ten voters, or 43%, say they are "angry" about the mid-term elections of 2018. Tyler Sinclair, Vice President of Morning Consult, said that an anger gap between supporters could influence the results Tuesday night.

"The anger of Democratic voters is strong ahead of election day, which could increase the party's chances of going to the polls," said Sinclair. "Notably, three out of five Democrats (59%) say they feel angry in the run-up to mid-term elections, compared to 30% of Republicans who say the same thing."

The poll POLITICO / Morning Consult was conducted among 1,961 registered voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a non-partisan media and technology company that provides research and insights based on data related to policy, policy and business strategy.

More details about the survey and its methodology are available in these two documents – Toplines: https://politi.co/2yRNLxF | Crossed tables: https://politi.co/2Oof9bL