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AAt the end of the electrifying and uncompromising battle for Congress in the 2018 mid-term election campaign, Democrats seem ready to win back the House of Representatives.
The number of polls tightening according to polls indicates that the Senate could also move away from Republicans if all dominoes fell in the face of the opposition party on Tuesday.
Poll analysts still predict that the Senate will remain under the control of the GOP, but some polls show fierce fighting in major states in the last days before November 6. In wave elections, tight ballots often end up flipping in the same way – that's what Democrats hope for this year.
During the Senate battle of recent weeks, Republicans were confident of winning North Dakota, but they acknowledged that Nevada and Arizona could address the Democrats, which would allow the room to be balanced on 50 seats but will remain under the control of the GOP because of the breaking of the tie. Vice President Mike Pence.
That was yet before the new polls in Tennessee – the state's "firewall" for Republicans – dead level. If Democrats hang out in Florida, Missouri and Indiana, where their leaders have faced fierce fighting and an energetic Republican base loyal to President Trump, then everything could fall into the hands of the state. volunteering.
Here are some critical polls before the mid-term elections on Tuesday:
Blue wave warning for the house
Although Democrats face obstacles in the House, the majority of pollsters believe that the odds favor a "blue wave". Democrats must overthrow 23 seats to take control of the lower house. Last week, Dave Wasserman, an editor in the House of Cook's non-partisan political report, said their forecasts were being updated, predicting that Democrats would win 30 to 40 seats, up from 25 to 35 seats.
Last Sunday, CBS News announced three scenarios for the Chamber and shared its conclusions. The best scenario for the Democrats indicated 225 Democratic seats with 210 Republican seats. However, with an error margin of plus or minus 13 seats on each side, even in the best of times, Democrats' victory in the House is not a sure thing.
Another poll, the latest ABC News / Washington Post pre-election poll, shows that House Democrat candidates are leading Republicans between 52% and 44% of potential voters. But the Democrats' lead went from 14 points in August and 13 points in October to just eight points.
The Senate will probably stay red, but …
Some individual races seem more tense than ever in the last days of the 2018 electoral cycle – and they are mainly heading towards the Democrats.
The closest Senate races to follow are:
- FloridaGovernor Rick Scott leads outgoing Senator Bill Nelson, D, in a new poll released Saturday. St. Pete Polls' results give Scott a 49.1% lead at 47.5%. But this remains within the margin of error, with 3.4% undecided. This last poll was the first for some time to put Scott forward.
- Tennessee: Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R, is in a dry heat with Democrat Phil Bredesen. On Friday, East Tennessee State University and Targoz Strategic Marketing Universities released two separate polls showing the equality between Blackburn and Bredesen. The ETSU poll found that 44% of likely voters claimed to support each candidate, and in the Targoz poll, 48% of likely voters and junior voters supported both Blackburn and Bredesen. The Republicans had previously thought that Tennessee was moving away from Bredesen.
- Texas: A poll on Emerson's battlefield revealed that the practicing senator, Senator GOP, Ted Cruz, had a slim advantage with 50% support. His rival Democrat, the representative Beto O'Rourke, holds 47% and 2% said they were undecided. The GOP is still favored but O 'Rourke seems to bridge the gap in a state where he should not have one. pray.
- Missouri: In a Saturday shock poll, incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill and Attorney General Josh Hawley are tied at 47 percent of potential voters. Until this election, the Republicans were more and more confident in the choice of Missouri – a result that would almost certainly have ensured the holding of the Senate.
While the selection of some polls indicates that Democrats are heading towards what once seemed an elusive victory, forecaster FiveThirtyEight is not convinced that the opposition party will succeed, saying on Sunday that Democrats have only one fifteen or fifteen percent chance of taking control of the situation. Senate. Republicans have six chances out of seven, or 84.7% to retain control of the Senate. But everyone remembers how bad such forecasts were in 2016.
Tennessee in particular will have to be watched. Republicans view Tennessee as a "firewall" that protects them from the loss of the room. With the current balance of forces at 51-49 and the Democrats likely to lose North Dakota, the GOP could afford to lose Arizona and Nevada, without taking Florida, from Missouri or Indiana, while preserving 50 seats and the casting of Vice President Mike Pence. vote. This calculation would be swept away by the loss of Tennessee.
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Republicans hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate and 26 Democrat senators are to be re-elected on Tuesday, compared to only nine Republicans. Of the 26 Democrats, 10 run in the states that President Trump won in the 2016 elections.
Here is the summary of Senate polls conducted by RealClearPolitics.
Look at the Congress from every angle
Overall, Democrats have a seven point advantage over Republicans in the latest national poll NBC News / Wall Street Journal.
Fifty percent of likely voters say they prefer a democratically controlled Congress, while 43 percent want the Republicans to be in charge. This is a slight dip for Democrats who, in October, had a nine point advantage. Among the largest number of registered voters who were polled, Democrats have a six-point lead over Republicans, from 49% to 43%.
FiveThirtyEight gives priority to Democrats in its general poll, based on polls asking people what party they would support in an election. Democrats are leading Republicans, 50.5% to 42.4%.
[READ MORE: Twitter fatigue in Minnesota: Republican Erik Paulsen says Trump’s tweets a source of ‘anxiety’ with voters]
Morning Consult and POLITICO also surveyed registered voters to ask them if they wanted Congress to be controlled by Republicans or Democrats. In this poll, Democrats earn eight points on Republicans, 46% to 38%.
RealClearPolitics has a complete list of all congressional polls here.
What do politicians say?
Vice President Mike Pence told The Hill last week that he thought the Republicans would keep control of the House. President Trump told reporters Sunday that Republicans would "probably" succeed in the House, while his "primary purpose" was the Senate – feelings that some Republicans see as the party that accepts the House would elude him.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Senate Democratic campaign committee, told Fox News Sunday that Democrats had a "very narrow path" to winning back the majority in the Senate, but presented a disappointing assessment. their chances of withdrawing it.
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