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While the new tough sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran came into effect on Monday, European officials remained determined to follow their own path, but their progress on an issue that sharply divided the United States and their closest allies have been, at best, halted.
Europeans consider that Iran 's nuclear deal of 2015 is crucial for their national interests and declare that they intend to continue to respect it. But to date, they have failed to put in place a mechanism to circumvent the sanctions without upsetting the Trump government.
Their position was further complicated by Denmark's recent accusation that the Iranian government attempted to assassinate an Arab separatist who was living there. France has made a similar accusation.
In May, when the Trump Administration withdrew from the nuclear deal, it announced it would reiterate the severe economic sanctions lifted under the agreement, targeting Iranian oil exports and banking sector. President Trump described the agreement as "worse than ever in history," saying it was doing nothing to prevent Iran's non-nuclear aggression, including the lack of nuclear weapons. assassination of dissidents abroad, a vast missile program and support for Hezbollah, the Syrian government, the Houthis of Yemen and Lebanon. Shiite dissidents throughout the region.
Members of the European Union, including Britain, France and Germany, declared that they would continue to respect the nuclear agreement, as well as China and Russia. . They are also trying to keep Iran in compliance by countering US economic sanctions.
But Europeans struggled to put in place an alternative payment mechanism to bypass the US-dominated banking system and allow Iran to continue selling its oil and goods. The said Special vehicle would serve as a trading center: the proceeds from the sale of Iranian oil and gas would be deducted from Iran's purchases, a form of barter without explicit financial transaction.
Until now, however, no European country has agreed to host the vehicle, for fear of reprisals from Americans.
In a joint statement issued on Friday, Federica Mogherini, EU foreign policy chief, and the UK, French and German foreign ministers and finance ministers said they "deeply regretted" the reimposition US sanctions and that work would continue. special payment vehicle.
"We remain committed to implementing" the nuclear deal "in accordance with international agreements and our common international security, and expect from Iran that it play a constructive role in this. regard, "the statement said.
Realistically, according to European officials, they could only keep 20 to 30% of existing trade with Iran, since large European companies with links to the United States have already withdrawn from the market. Iran, or are doing so to avoid sanctions. Stefano Stefanini, a consultant and former Italian diplomat based in Brussels, said EU officials believe that 40% would be optimistic.
Among all the problems between Europe and the Trump administration, Iran has become the most controversial group. Europeans are actively working against US policy, which actually puts them in touch with Russia, China, and Iran.
"Transatlantic relations are extremely tense," said Stefanini.
If the Europeans succeeded in creating "a small gap in the blockage that the US has on international financial transactions, it could be replicated," he said. And if they fail, he said, "it will be another big grievance with Washington, which will create another minefield."
European unity is holding up so far, but some European officials are worried that Britain will not stay as firm in the face of a Washington state that wants to yield little to Iran.
Russia, less exposed to US sanctions and allied to Iran in Syria, said it would continue to buy and trade Iranian oil and gas, which they would then sell to other countries.
Washington has also granted waivers to at least eight countries, including Turkey and apparently China, to continue buying Iranian energy, but only to maintain the stability of the oil market. These renunciations are not permanent.
Iran is willing to stay in the deal and has promoted Europe's support for this deal in its country, despite the growing economic pain of sanctions.
"Iran will be patient for another five or six months, but the streets count," said Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations, referring to Iran's public opinion and public protests.
At the same time, assassination attempts in Denmark and France "will not mean that Europeans will put an end to the agreement," she said, "but that definitely puts a damper on the truth." Attitude to go further in the economic easing.
Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen The plot is described as "totally unacceptable," Denmark told the Iranian ambassador. Possible joint action by Europe is on the agenda of a meeting of EU Foreign Ministers on 19 November.
In France, an attempt to bomb a rally of Iranian dissidents took place in October. The French reaction has been calm but firm, with sanctions imposed on Iranians, including the Minister of Intelligence, said Delphine O, a French legislator of the party of President Emmanuel Macron, who heads the France-Iran friendship group in Paris. 'National Assembly.
Ms. O recently returned from Iran and said the atmosphere was challenging and suspicious. "The interlocutors have a general feeling of despair," she said. "It's increasingly difficult for them to support their engagement with the West."
Trump said his main goal was to force Iran's leaders to negotiations that would include restrictions on their missiles and support for regional allies. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the sanctions were intended to prompt Iran to choose: "Either to fight to preserve its economy of life in the country, or to continue to waste precious wealth when of fights abroad. He will not have the resources to do both. "
Speaking Sunday on Fox News, Mr. Pompeo said that Mr. Trump "warned the world that the terrorist regime that threatens Israel with Iran's funding of Lebanese Hezbollah, that the terrorist regime that attempted to assassinate In recent weeks, the terrorist regime that continues to finance the Houthis by launching missiles in Riyadh and Dubai will stop.
"This behavior needs to change," said Pompeo, "and the US sanctions will be reimposed at midnight tonight."
Ali Vaez, who heads the Iranian project for the International Crisis Group, said there was little historical correlation between sanctions and Iranian politics. In an information document describing the illogical sanctions, the group looked at the Iranian economy and its regional behavior over the last 40 years. He revealed that "Tehran is pursuing what it considers vital for its national security," said Vaez.
"The extent to which the Islamic Republic feels threatened or feels an opportunity in its neighborhood largely defines its conduct," the report says. "Measured against this standard, the aggressive policy of the Trump administration is more likely to stimulate Iranian regional activism than to reduce it."
Meanwhile, European and Iranian officials are observing the mid-term elections in the United States, as in the rest of the world, and are trying to determine the likelihood of Trump's re-election in two years.
