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IIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made an unexpected visit late last month to Oman, where he met with Sultan Qaboos. In a joint statement, Qaboos and Netanyahu announced that they "discussed ways to move the peace process forward." Netanyahu's visit following that of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, which came two days earlier, suggests that Oman could begin to take an active role in the peace process.
Oman, like most countries in the region, has never established diplomatic relations with Israel. In 1994, Sultan Qaboos received Yitzhak Rabin, the first Israeli prime minister to visit Oman. The two countries opened reciprocal trade offices in 1996, but Oman closed them in 2000, at the beginning of the second Intifada.
Despite the lack of standardized relations, Oman has been a supporter of the peace process. After Egypt signed the Camp David Accords with Israel in 1978, Oman was one of the few Arab countries not to break ties with Egypt. In February this year, Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi traveled to the West Bank, where he approved a two-state solution, stating: "There was a global desire to do something about it. establish Israel after the first and second world wars. … The establishment of a Palestinian state has become a strategic necessity for the entire world. "
In addition, Oman has a history of neutral mediator in regional conflicts that has earned it a reputation as a Middle Eastern Switzerland. Notorious, Oman set up a secret secret path between Washington and Tehran that ultimately culminated in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The sultanate also held secret talks during the Iran-Iraq war and after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, however unsuccessfully. More recently in Yemen, Oman organized talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabians, negotiated the release of the hostages and helped evacuate the US diplomatic mission to Yemen.
The news of Netanyahu's visit to Oman has raised hopes that the Gulf Sultanate could play the role of regional broker for Israeli-Palestinian peace under President Trump's "pact of the century". Jason Greenblatt, Trump's special envoy for the peace process, tweeted this meeting of Netanyahu and Qaboos was "a useful step for our peace efforts and essential for creating a climate of stability, security and prosperity" and he hoped to see more.
Last month, Alawi said that Oman would not take the role of mediator, it would help bring Israelis and Palestinians closer together. He also said: "Israel is a state present in this region and we all understand it, the world is also aware of this fact and it is perhaps time for Israel to be treated in the same way and to assume the same obligations."
This visit took place in the midst of other potential signs of Israeli-Arab normalization. A week ago on Sunday, Israeli Minister of Culture and Sports, Miri Regev, was in the United Arab Emirates to accompany the Israeli judo team at the Abu Dhabi Grand Slam, and Israeli gymnasts participated in a tournament. in Qatar. In both cases, the organizers agreed to allow the Israeli flag and the national anthem. In addition, several instances in which Israel has secretly improved relations with various Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, share Israel's concerns about Iran's influence in the region and its contempt for the Muslim Brotherhood. On Tuesday, Israeli Communications Minister Ayoub Kara spoke at a conference on telecommunications in the United Arab Emirates.
But the prospects for standardization may not be as bright as they appear. International sports organizations had to convince the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to allow Israeli athletes and symbols. They conform because their desire to host international events outweighs their antipathy towards Israel. And while Arab countries have developed security ties with Israel, these transactional relationships stem from a feared enemy and not from a real detente. Moreover, the Arab states have little to gain from declared relations that they do not already maintain with hidden links.
It is unclear whether average Omanis is ready to oppose Qaboos' efforts. Already, the Omani writer Zakaria al-Muharrami tweeted although he appreciates the efforts of the sultan, "… that does not mean that Netanyahu, the murderer of children, becomes a friend. He is an enemy of all humanity. "In fact, variants of the hashtag #Omani_Against_Normalization have appeared in tens of thousands of tweets recently. Other important Omani commentators more cautiously criticized Netanyahu's visit.
Moreover, it is unclear whether Oman, a relatively poor country with less than five million inhabitants, has the strength and influence to play the role of peacekeeper in the region. In fact, the Gulf Cooperation Council regards the country as a special case, with fragile links to Saudi Arabia, mainly because of the close ties between Oman and Iran.
Netanyahu's visit to Oman must now be seen as a potentially positive step for peace in the Middle East. But we do not know how much Oman has to offer. Only time and the elusive details of the Trump Peace Plan will tell us.
Nicole Salter is a project officer at the Democracy Foundation, where David May is a research analyst. FDD is a non-partisan research institute based in Washington that focuses on national security and foreign policy.
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