US elections mid-term 2018: Trump is invincible, but for how much longer?

Although his name is not on the ballot in the United States, make no mistake: these elections are about EVERYTHING about Donald Trump.

He placed himself at the center of the campaign and traveled the country with energy in the last days. Air Force One, the backdrop funded by taxpayers on these very partisan occasions.

He did it to support Republican candidates, yes, but in the end, it was a referendum on his presidency. As far as possible, he dictated the terms of the debate. And no one dictates the terms of the debate as he does.

Presidents have always attracted attention. Theodore Roosevelt called the White House a "chair of intimidation" – the place where he could ask for attention and advance his agenda.

But Donald Trump has his own pulpit of intimidation, 55 million followers on Twitter and a penchant for outrageous ones.

You feel that everything in American life is a reaction to what Donald Trump said. His supporters worship him, his opponents deplore him, and the candidates on the ballot try to spread the word.

And that sparked real enthusiasm in these elections – both for and against him. Until now, the number of people who voted early is about twice as high as four years ago. It's staggering.

In some states, the number of ballots already cast is close to the total number of ballots cast in 2014, including polling day. And of course, what pollsters, what analysts, what we are trying to understand in the media is the biggest question – what does that bode?

We do not know, but here are some indications.

What will be the vote among minorities? Will they vote more than in 2016? and will they vote Democrat?

Among women – 52% of whites, Trump supporting university women graduates in 2016 – the latest polls suggest a considerable lead for Democrats.

This could make a huge difference in many suburban home runs. More women than ever before run for office, in part because of a president whom they consider to be misogynist.

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What about young people? They seem to be excited; many seem hostile to the president – but will they have the energy to get up and go to the polling station?

And will the supporters of the president be as motivated to vote as they were two years ago?

Donald Trump does politics with a crucial psychological insight. Rabies is an emotion that lasts much longer than hope.

So, although he has a very good story to tell about the economy – growth is on the rise, unemployment is down, consumer confidence is on the rise, taxes have been reduced, the stock market has increased impressively – this is not what is improving its base.

The policy of well-being only leads you to this point.

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Much more powerful (and much more toxic, according to his critics) is to raise fear on the caravan – the group of creepy people from Central America, who snake through Mexico – to "invade" America , according to the president. .

They are still hundreds of miles away and are walking – but Donald Trump has deployed thousands of soldiers to the border. His message is that he alone will keep America safe from foreign hordes, unfaithful to Islam, criminal and infiltrated at the door.

He also said that he would sweep the 14th amendment, which allows anyone born in the United States to be entitled to a US passport. That is what he promised to do by executive order, even though the prevailing opinion of jurists is that it is impossible to do it.

Again, this sounds like an allusion to the base, rather than a sober assessment of what the president is able to do and execute.

These messages have left many people, including several prominent Republicans, clearly nauseated, deeply uncomfortable. He is accused of demagogy and gross populism.

The Washington Post is trying to keep track of what it considers to be presidential falsities – and the machine counting these lies / lies / lies overheats for having to work so hard.

The Democratic candidates have largely tried to ignore the issue of immigration, unsuccessfully, preferring to talk about health care, which is at the forefront of voter concerns.

But what happens if the president's tactics are justified?

What if the Republicans kept the House and the Senate, and defied the laws of American politics, if the ruling President's party still had a kick in the mid-term elections?

It is no exaggeration to say that the direction taken by America will depend on these results.

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If the Republicans keep both houses of Congress, it will be an absolute justification for Donald Trump.

He will be the political master of all polls. Who will try to stop him firing Robert Mueller and dissolves the investigation into Russia?

Who will stand in his why he's asking for an escalation of his trade wars. Who will he push back when he threatens to pull the United States out of NATO?

Who will stop it? It asks for billions for the wall between the United States and Mexico? Which Republican will dare to tell him that he is wrong?

But if the Democrats come out well – and the polls organize around the proposal, they could take control of the House of Representatives – the situation is quite different.

• The big American election problem that is not Trump
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His formidable opponents will pack the White House into paperwork, documents to appear, e-mails demanding about the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh, transcripts of his remarks to Vladimir Putin, details of the president's tax returns. that have never seen the light of day, increased funding for the Mueller investigation, funding blocking of the president's pet projects – essentially, web-linking.

And the aura of invincibility that surrounds the New York billionaire since he adopted this golden escalator in the summer of 2015 will have developed his first cracks. Suddenly, he will look beatable.

But, but, but …

I apologize that the dominant punctuation element in this blog is the point of questioning. But as Jimmy Cliff noted for the first time in the 1960s and Johnny Nash repeated in the 1970s, there are more questions than answers.

And as for the forecast of the result?

You think I'm going to shake my head after what happened two years ago ?!

The. A question mark and an exclamation point.