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Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democrat leaders, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Where are things
• Will the arrest of a Trump supporter during the nationwide direct mail campaign hurt Republicans in the mid-term elections? This idea seems to have crossed the mind of the president – but not for the reasons you might expect.
Some Republican officials privately want voters to connect Trump's caustic words about Hillary Clinton and former President Barack Obama with the bomber who has chosen to target them. But Mr Trump seems to be worried about something more basic: "momentum".
Seating briefly to reporters on Friday, he used the word three times when he discussed arrest and gossip.
"The Republicans have had tremendous momentum and of course that has happened," he said, adding, "We must now start the momentum again."
Strategists have been divided on the sustainability of a so-called "Kavanaugh bump" in polls, strengthening Republicans in the last few weeks following the Supreme Court's confirmation process. But there is little doubt that Republicans would rather get the attention of voters there – or somewhere else, really – if the alternative is a national meditation on presidential guilt for inciting violence.
• Until now, Republicans are acting cautiously, if they are attacking bomb episodes.
Rep. Mike Coffman of Colorado, facing one of the toughest re-election fights of the year, was about as forceful as most Republicans were prepared to get:
"Democrats and Republicans must unite to condemn these acts of national terrorism and let officials know that the intimidation of citizens, journalists and public officials can not stand," he said. declared. posted on Twitter.
Mr. Coffman has generally been more critical of the President's rhetoric than other members of his party, particularly in immigration matters. (Many people in his district were born abroad.) But Mr. Coffman did not specifically mention the president in his tweet.
• A new poll Friday in the Texas Senate race showed Ted Cruz, the incumbent Republican, six points ahead of Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic candidate. According to a poll by the University of Texas / Texas Tribune, independent voters – who often vote for Republicans in Texas elections – favored O'Rourke, 51 percent against 39 percent.
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"Illegal Immigrants on America"
• The image Republicans are looking for in voters' minds just before polling day: the migrant caravan located many miles away in Mexico.
In the first district of Minnesota, one of the few places where Republicans believe they can get a currently Democratic seat, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super center of the House, has issued a new announcement intended to boost the Republican, Jim Hagedorn. His message: his opponent, Dan Feehan, is a liberal from Nancy Pelosi who will do nothing to prevent the "caravan of illegal immigrants walking on America". The video that accompanies it is, you can guess it.
Trump said he sees the caravan – and immigration in the broad sense – as a winning issue in the final days of the campaign. And across the country, candidates, party committees and outside groups follow his example. Even very far from the southern border.
Obama mocks Trump
Barack Obama uses the word "L". The question now: how is Mr. Trump going to take it?
"Throughout human history, and certainly through American history, politicians have exaggerated," Obama said. said Friday at a rally for Democrats in Wisconsin. "But what we have not seen before in our recent public life is politicians who lie blatantly, repetitively, baselessly, shamelessly. Do stuff.
The former president, who has long been a villain in Republican ads, has often been relegated to the background this year as a boogeyman facing other favorite conservative targets, such as Ms. Pelosi and Ms. Clinton.
But with his return to the election campaign – and this particularly aggressive appearance on Friday – do not be surprised if Mr. Trump feels moved to taunt him on the executive's Twitter feed. Whether it helps the Republican cause or not.
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