A decade of commercial space travel – what's next?

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Joel Wooten, University of South Carolina

(THE CONVERSATION) In many industries, a decade is barely enough to bring about radical change unless something overwhelming happens – a new technology, an economic model, or a service design. The space industry has recently benefited from all three.

But 10 years ago, none of these innovations was guaranteed. In fact, on September 28, 2008, an entire company watched and hoped that its flagship product was attempting a final launch after three failures. With low liquidity, it was the last shot. More than 21,000 kilograms of kerosene and liquid oxygen were ignited and fed two overpressure phases off the launch pad.

When the Falcon 1 rocket successfully reached its orbit and the company signed a contract with NASA, SpaceX survived its "startup". This milestone – the first privately developed liquid fuel rocket – set in motion a new space industry that is changing our world, on this planet and beyond. What has happened in the meantime, and what does it mean to go forward?

While scientists are developing new technologies to solve the myriad technical problems of space, there is another segment of researchers, including myself, that is studying the business and operational issues of space. this new industry. In a recent article, my colleague Christopher Tang and I examine the questions that companies must answer to create a sustainable space industry and enable humans to establish extraterrestrial bases, exploit asteroids and extend space travel. less role in the financing of space companies. We believe that these commercial solutions may hold the least fascinating key to unlocking the galaxy.

The new global space industry

When the Soviet Union launched its Sputnik program, putting into orbit a satellite in 1957, they launched a space race fueled by international competition and fears of the Cold War. The Soviet Union and the United States have starred, bringing together a series of "firsts" for record books. The first chapter of the space race culminated with Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin's historic Apollo 11 lunar landing, which required massive public investment of $ 25.4 billion, or nearly $ 200 million. billions of dollars.

The competition characterized this first part of the history of space. In the end, it evolved into collaboration, with the international space station being a prime example, as governments sought to achieve common goals. Now we have entered a new phase – openness – with private trading companies in the lead.

The spacecraft and satellite launchers industry is increasingly commercialized, in part because of reduced public budgets. According to a report by investment company Space Angels, 120 venture capital companies invested more than $ 3.9 billion in private space companies last year. The space industry is also becoming global, it is no longer dominated by its rivals the Cold War, the US and the USSR.

In 2018 to date, there have been 72 orbital launches, on average two per week, from launch areas in China, Russia, India, Japan, French Guinea, New Zealand and the United States. United.

The ramp-up of actual rocket orbital launches and spacecraft launches, which include spacecraft-launched satellites and probes, coincides with this opening in the last decade.

More and more governments, businesses and even amateurs are engaged in various space vehicle launches. With more entities involved, innovation has flourished. As Roberson notes in Digital Trends, "Private, commercial spaceflight. Even lunar exploration, mining and colonization – everything is suddenly on the table, making the race for space today more vital than it has been in years.

This vitality can be clearly seen in the news. On September 21, Japan announced that two of its unmanned rovers, dubbed Minerva-II-1, had landed on a small, remote asteroid. In perspective, the scale of this landing is similar to that of a 6-centimeter target at 20,000 kilometers away. And earlier this year, people around the world were impressed by the successful launch of SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket and, more impressively, by the synchronized return of its two boosters in a synchronized ballet of epic proportions.

Challenges and opportunities

In the midst of capital, business and knowledge growth, researchers and practitioners need to understand how entities must manage their day-to-day operations, organize their supply chain and develop sustainable operations in space. This is complicated by the obstacles that space poses: distance, gravity, inhospitable environments and lack of information.

One of the biggest challenges is getting the things people want in space, in space. Making everything on Earth and launching it with rockets is expensive and restrictive. A company called Made In Space takes a different approach by maintaining an additive manufacturing facility on the International Space Station and 3D printing in space. Tools, spare parts and medical devices for the crew can be created upon request. The benefits include greater flexibility and better inventory management on the space station. In addition, some products may be better produced in space than on Earth, such as pure optical fibers.

How should companies determine the value of manufacturing in the space? Where should the capacity be built and how should it be expanded? The figure below shows the origin and destination of the goods between the Earth and the space and organizes the products in quadrants. Humans have mastered the left lower quadrant, made on Earth, for use on Earth. From there, each quadrant presents new challenges for which we have less and less expertise.

I first became interested in this problem by listening to a panel of robotics experts discussing building a colony on Mars (in our third quadrant). You can not build structures on Earth and send them easily to Mars. So you have to make them there. But putting human builders in this extreme environment is equally problematic. An entirely new production mode using robots and automation in an advanced transmitter may be necessary.

Resources in the space

You may be wondering where you get the materials you need to make in space, but there is actually an abundance of resources: asteroids contain metals for manufacturing, ice on planets and moons and rare elements like helium. 3 for energy are embedded in the crust of the moon. If we bring this isotope back to Earth, we could eliminate our reliance on fossil fuels.

As demonstrated by the recent landing of Minerva-II-1 asteroids, people are gaining the technical know-how needed to locate and navigate these materials. But extraction and transportation are open questions.

How do these cases alter the economy of the space industry? Already, companies like Planetary Resources, Moon Express, Deep Space Industries and Asterank are organizing to respond to these opportunities. And the researchers are beginning to describe how to navigate between the issues of property rights, exploitation and partnerships.

Threats from the trash of space

The film "Gravity" opens with the explosion of a Russian satellite that triggers a chain reaction of destruction thanks to the debris hitting a space shuttle, the Hubble telescope and part of the International Space Station . The sequence, although not perfectly plausible, is a very real phenomenon. Indeed, in 2013, a Russian satellite disintegrated when it was hit by fragments of a Chinese satellite that exploded in 2007. Known as the Kessler effect, the danger of more than 500 000 space debris has already caught the attention of the public authorities. Circles How should this risk be prevented, reduced or mitigated? The quantification of the environmental impact of the space industry and the treatment of sustainable operations are yet to come.

And after?

It's true that space becomes another place to do business. There are companies that will take care of the logistics to get your module intended for space on board a rocket; there are companies that will bring these rockets to the international space station; and there are others who can make a spare part once on site.

What happens next? In a sense, it's everyone, but all signs indicate that this new industry is moving forward. A new breakthrough could alter the speed, but the course seems set: explore further away from home, be it the moon, the asteroids or Mars. It's hard to believe that 10 years ago SpaceX launches had not been successful yet. Today, a vibrant private sector includes a large number of companies working in all fields, from commercial spacecraft to rocket propulsion systems to mining and food production. The next step is to consolidate business practices and change the industry.

In a large hall of the University of Pittsburgh, as part of the White House Border Conference, I see the future. State-of-the-art virtual reality glasses are around my head. I'm looking at the surface of Mars. Every detail is immediate and clear. It's not just a video game or a goal-free exercise. The scientific community has devoted resources to these efforts because exploration is preceded by information. And who knows, maybe in 10 years, someone will be on the very surface of Mars.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here: http://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-commercial-space-travel-whats-next-103405.