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US model (GFS) rainfall forecast until Sunday morning. (PivotalWeather.com)
The remains of Hurricane Willa and a small disturbance in the southwestern United States merged in the north of the Gulf of Mexico, forming a new storm that will take place on the east coast on Friday and Saturday. The storm will gain energy over the center of the Atlantic coastline when it will interact with a cold front coming from the west.
This classic fall will begin in the Washington area from Friday afternoon and will end between Saturday morning and early afternoon. The most stormy conditions are expected Friday evening, during which the rain, sometimes very abundant, will accompany strong winds reaching 30 mph.
[[[[10 things to know about Nor'easters]
Total precipitation between 1 and 1.75 inches is likely.
The rain should fall on a period long enough for the soil to absorb, reducing the risk of flooding. And the winds should be just below levels that could worry about widespread power outages. However, some breakdowns can not be ruled out if gusts exceed 35 mph, which is not out of the question late Friday night – especially in our eastern regions.
The storm is likely to cause flight delays, not only at Washington's airports, but also on the coast through New England. However, the storm will not be so bad that it will cause many cancellations.
Chronology of the storm
US model (GFS) rainfall simulation of Nor & # 39; easter. (PivotalWeather.com)
In most areas, the rain will last approximately 18 to 24 hours. You do not need your umbrella to get to work on Friday, but you'll have to commute to work. All outdoor projects on Saturday morning are uncertain, but drier weather should filter the area from southwest to northeast between noon and afternoon.
- 10am to 4pm Friday: The rain starts from the southwest to the northeast. Becoming windy. Temperatures around 50.
- 16h to 22h Friday: The intensity of rain and wind increases. Wind gusts from 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures around 50.
- 10 am Friday to 4 pm Saturday: Moderate rain, strong sometimes. Wind gusting to 25-35 mph. Temperatures 45-50.
- Saturday from 4h to 10h: Moderate rain, gradually decreasing to light rain / drizzle. Wind gusting to 25-35 mph. Temperatures 45-50.
- 10am to 4pm Saturday: The rain / drizzle ends southwest to northeast. Wind gusting to 20-30 mph. Temperatures 50-55.
We expect Sunday to be dry – Good news for Marine Corps Marathon participants and spectators.
Rainfall Projections
The model predictions for total precipitation vary between a little less than an inch and almost two inches. A reasonable prediction based on available data suggests that 1 to 1.75 inches is most likely, with pockets of higher and lower amounts.
- NAM model: 0.9 inches
- European model: 1.6 inches
- American model: 1.7 inches
- Canadian model: 1.0 inches
Note that the European model, which is on average the most accurate, predicts pockets of about two inches just north and northwest of the Beltway.
The European model predicts rainfall until Sunday morning. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
If Washington receives at least an inch of rain from this storm, it will be the twentieth storm of the calendar year to produce as much, at a distance of the record of 21 established in 1878. Rainfall is also likely to push the month of April. October total, which shows a deficit of just under an inch in a territory near or even higher than normal. With possible additional rainfall on Sunday night and Monday, October could become the seventh consecutive month of above-normal rainfall in Washington State.
Thursday, Washington received 51.64 inches of rain (and slush) this year and needs less than 10 inches in the remaining time to exceed the record of 61.33 inches set in 1889.
Wind projections
The winds will be light early Friday morning and afternoon. But as the storm begins to melt with a cold front reaching the North Carolina Outer Banks on Friday night, the winds will begin to blow.
The US model (GFS) (shown below) forecasts wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph on Friday night throughout the region, with the strongest gusts occurring in our northern and eastern regions especially towards the bay from Chesapeake and Delmarva.
The NAM model (not shown) predicts even higher gusts, reaching 40 to 45 mph from Washington to the north and east. If these stronger bursts materialize, wind and wet soil may cause sparse power cuts, which would make trees vulnerable to falls.
Storm in other cities
The same storm will produce heavy rains and gusts of wind in the Interstate 95 corridor, which begins Friday in Virginia and ends in New England on Saturday night. Here are some projections for some key population centers:
- Richmond: The rain starts between 8am and noon on Friday and ends between 3am and 7pm on Saturday. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Wind gusts are expected Friday night at around 25 to 35 mph.
- Philadelphia cream: The rain starts between 16h and 20h Friday and decrease between 14h and 18h Saturday. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Maximum gusts are expected early Saturday morning, reaching 30 and 40 mph.
- New York: The rain starts between 19h and 23h Friday and decrease between 17h and 21h Saturday. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Maximum gusts expected between Saturday morning and noon, reaching 35 to 45 mph.
- Boston: The rain starts between 3 and 7 o'clock on Saturday and fades between 11 pm and 11 pm. Saturday and 3am Sunday. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Gusts of wind are expected Saturday afternoon and evening, reaching 35 to 45 mph.
The total precipitation forecast until Sunday morning is predicted by the national meteorological service.
Coastal effects
Storm watches have been posted on the Atlantic coast from the Maryland / Delaware border to southern New England for gusts of up to 50 mph.
These winds will cause more water in the shoreline, which could result in minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide on Saturday morning in the center of the Atlantic coastline. "The latest indications suggest widespread minor flooding along the Delaware and New Jersey coasts and in Delaware Bay," writes the office of the National Meteorological Service serving the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey. "There is a moderate risk of flooding, especially from the island of Long Beach to the south."
The New York / Long Island Coastal Weather Office said the ocean surge could raise water levels up to three feet above normally dry land. He predicts moderate floods during the high tide cycle late Saturday morning.
In southern New England, the concern is high tide on Saturday afternoon. "A storm surge of up to 1.5 ft is probably combined with a sea of 10-15 ft expected to produce strong and minor coastal flooding areas along the east coast with areas of Plymouth Coastal County up to 39, to the north shore the most vulnerable, "said the office of the meteorological service in Boston writes.
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