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The fate of the Red Democratic senators will determine whether the Senate remains in the hands of Republicans after November, or whether the Democrats take control and potentially control the entire Congress. On what do these red dems count for their victories?
Protect Obamacare. And this reveals how much the debate on health care has changed, both within the Democratic Party – where the ideological center of gravity has shifted to the left and many others – and into the whole country.
Perhaps nothing better illustrates this profound change than this new advertisement by Joe Manchin III of West Virginia:
This announcement refers to a Manchin broadcast in 2010, during which he shot a copy of a cap-and-trade bill, an unsuccessful attempt to cut carbon emissions. Manchin joined a long list of candidates, most, but not all, Republicans, who took out their guns in commercials to shoot all that had aroused their anger, a kind of political advertising that has all the subtlety and complexity of American politics, poured into the trigger.
But instead of destroying a bill that could threaten the coal industry, Manchin is currently taking legal action in federal court to repeal the entire Affordable Care Act, presented by 20 attorneys general and Republican governors. And guess what: one of the plaintiffs in the case happens to be the opponent of Manchin, the attorney general of West Virginia.
This confirms once again that this lawsuit is a political nightmare for Republicans. If successful, not only is it estimated that 17 million Americans lose health coverage; tens of millions of people with preexisting conditions would lose the protection they received from ACA (about half of non-elderly Americans have a pre-existing problem). A recent poll found that 75% of Americans said it was "very important" for them that these protections remain in place.
One of the most vulnerable democrats in the country – a state that represents a state where Trump is still extremely popular – is attacking his opponent for supporting this effort to destroy Obamacare. This shows how much politics has evolved against repeal.
Yet this advertisement also reveals the complexity of the politics surrounding the defense of health law. In many places dominated by Republicans, saying that you support "Obamacare" is like calling yourself a Satanist. Trump won West Virginia with a 42-point margin, while promising to withdraw West Virginians' health care.
However, in a few places, Obamacare has transformed people's lives for the better, more spectacularly than in West Virginia. The number of uninsured people was reduced by more than half after the entry into force of the ACA. The number of Virginians in the West benefiting from coverage through Medicaid has increased by more than 50% thanks to the law; Only New Mexico has a higher proportion of citizens on Medicaid.
Manchin's political survival depends on getting a significant number of Republicans, as well as the old, ancestral Democrat-in-registration system that supported Trump. But now it's about attacking what the Republican Party does in terms of health care, even if it does so without mentioning Obamacare.
It works in many parts of the country, including the most conservative and the most pro-Trump. According to the Wesleyan Media Project, in August, 52% of pro-democracy announcements for federal offices mentioned health care.
It also resonates on the Senate map. Democrats have an outside chance to take over the Senate this year, despite defending many more seats than Republicans. One of the main reasons is that Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, of North Dakota, and Claire McCaskill, Missouri, are the most vulnerable seats of Democrats – skilled politicians who have long experience in the delicate business of democrats in red. States. Wherever you find a potentially vulnerable democrat, you'll probably find them talking about pre-existing conditions (see here or here or right here).
And these Democrats have a good chance of survival because they are always at the right of the typical Democrat, but they are passionate defenders from the ACA.
Obviously, the debate on health care has shifted to the left. But the nature and extent of this change is truly remarkable. In 2010, Democrats were completely destroyed in the mid-term elections, losing a total of 63 seats in the House and costing them the lower house, largely because Republicans also Senate.
Years later, the same law could help one or both chambers regain democratic power. Who could have imagined it?
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