A test of strength: the mid-term results could give rise to a mixed verdict

The mixed verdict, if it is so, is partly the product of a simple geography: the most expensive mid-term elections in US history are contested in two Americas in the midst of a political reorientation.

Voters in the suburbs, where President Trump is less popular, will be crucial in the fight for control of the House. Rural areas, which tend to be Trump strongholds, have more influence in the Senate race.

Mr. Trump acknowledged at a rally Friday evening in West Virginia that his party was in danger of losing control of the House.

"It could happen, could happen," said Trump. "We are doing very well and we are doing very well in the Senate. But that could happen. And you know what you do? Do not worry about that, I'll just understand. "

Democrats are also more confident about their chances of winning a series of governor races, five of which are currently held by Republicans in the Midwest, two in Florida and Georgia, where candidates aim to become the first African Americans elected to the position of Director General. They are also seeking to regain ground in many state legislatures after record losses during President Obama's term.

Senior officials from both parties involved in the House and Senate races have warned that dozens of races remained in the margins of election error in the final days of the campaign. Due to the volatile nature of the electorate and the deadly experience of 2016 rising expectations, predicting accurate results is risky.

"There is a big change going on," said Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat who has served three terms in the Senate. "It's a confused political map nowadays."

Races on the radar

The battle for the House of Representatives boils down to a segment of largely central districts, both politically and geographically: suburbs, small towns, and some centrist or right-wing rural areas. This graph compares the population density of each district, a measure of the urban or rural density of a geographic area, with the partisan voter index – the way a district voted in relation to the nation as a whole last two presidential elections.

Non-competitive districts:

tend to be in less dense and more rural areas

are in the most urban neighborhoods and left

Population density of the district

Seventeen races considered likely or likely to overthrow the party's control are currently held by Republicans, including four in Pennsylvania, where the recent redistribution has given Democrats a boost. But even if the Democrats win all these seats, they still lack the 23 needed to take control.

Of the 29 races identified as contests, 28 are organized by the GOP, giving Democrats a large piece of land to make gains on Tuesday. Many of these tight races take place in outlying suburbs such as the 39th and 48th in California (Los Angeles area) and the 15th in Florida (Tampa region).

If a "blue wave" is formed on Tuesday, it will land in many of the 28 districts of Skinny Republic. (Only two lean Democrat seats, both in Nevada). These are the toughest seats for Democrats, ranging from the vast districts of Alaska and Montana to New York's 11th largest city (Staten Island).

Non-competitive districts:

are in the most urban neighborhoods and left

tend to be in less dense and more rural areas

Population density of the district

Seventeen races considered likely or likely to overthrow the party's control are currently held by Republicans, including four in Pennsylvania, where the recent redistribution has given Democrats a boost. But even if the Democrats win all these seats, they still lack the 23 needed to take control.

Of the 29 races identified as contests, 28 are organized by the GOP, giving Democrats a large piece of land to make gains on Tuesday. Many of these tight races take place in outlying suburbs such as the 39th and 48th in California (Los Angeles area) and the 15th in Florida (Tampa region).

If a "blue wave" is formed on Tuesday, it will land in many of the 28 districts of Skinny Republic. (Only two lean Democrat seats, both in Nevada). These are the toughest seats for Democrats, ranging from the vast districts of Alaska and Montana to New York's 11th largest city (Staten Island).

Non-competitive districts:

tend to be in less dense and more rural areas

are in the most urban neighborhoods and left

Population density of the district

Seventeen races considered likely or likely to overthrow the party's control are currently held by Republicans, including four in Pennsylvania, where the recent redistribution has given Democrats a boost. But even if the Democrats win all these seats, they still lack the 23 needed to take control.

Of the 29 races identified as contests, 28 are organized by the GOP, giving Democrats a large piece of land to make gains on Tuesday. Many of these tight races take place in outlying suburbs such as the 39th and 48th in California (Los Angeles area) and the 15th in Florida (Tampa region).

If a "blue wave" is formed on Tuesday, it will land in many of the 28 districts of Skinny Republic. (Only two lean Democrat seats, both in Nevada). These are the toughest seats for Democrats, ranging from the vast districts of Alaska and Montana to New York's 11th largest city (Staten Island).

Non-competitive districts:

Population density of the district

Seventeen races considered likely or likely to overthrow the party's control are currently held by Republicans, including four in Pennsylvania, where the recent redistribution has given Democrats a boost. But even if the Democrats win all these seats, they still lack the 23 needed to take control.

Of the 29 races identified as contests, 28 are organized by the GOP, giving Democrats a large piece of land to make gains on Tuesday. Many of these tight races take place in outlying suburbs such as the 39th and 48th in California (Los Angeles area) and the 15th in Florida (Tampa region).

If a "blue wave" is formed on Tuesday, it will land in many of the 28 districts of Skinny Republic. (Only two lean Democrat seats, both in Nevada). These are the toughest seats for Democrats, ranging from the vast districts of Alaska and Montana to New York's 11th largest city (Staten Island).

Tuesday's elections are a test of whether the anti-Trump energy that appeared in the March of Women the day after his inauguration is powerful enough to inflict a blow on the president and his party. Mr Trump organized the elections in the form of a referendum on his presidency and strived to energize his main supporters by reviving one of his fundamental problems: the fight against terrorism and the fight against terrorism. ;illegal immigration.

If the Democrats won a majority, even a small one, in the House, that would give them the power to investigate the Trump administration and set up hurdles to the president's agenda of further tax cuts, lower spending interior and build a wall between the United States. southern border.

Whatever the result, the 2018 campaign is one for records. More money was spent than in any mid-term election. Participation rate is likely to exceed historical measures. An unprecedented number of women run for office.

Republicans have expressed confidence that they will retain or expand their majority in the Senate (51-49), and Democrats privately acknowledge that incumbents in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri are in danger of losing the breed in the country of Trump.

"Trump must remind his constituents why it is not acceptable to vote for the Democrats," said Chris Hansen, executive director of the Senate GOP campaign branch. "They are cross-voters. President Trump is the only credible messenger for Trump voters. "

Republicans were less and less hopeful that the party could overthrow a Democratic president in West Virginia, where an American super-president linked to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had stopped broadcasting TV commercials in the last week of the campaign. Meanwhile, the re-election of Florida senator Bill Nelson, who is challenged by Republican Gov. Rick Scott, remains a headache.

Democratic senators have managed to reduce their exposure to Trump's territory: polls indicate that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin incumbents, all elected by Trump, have won surprise wins in 2016. They are on good way to be reelected. Democrats remain optimistic about inverting GOP-held seats in Arizona and Nevada, where the latest elections showed slight benefits for them. The itinerary of the last week of Mr. Trump has avoided the two western states.

Both parties are largely in agreement on the battlefield of the House. The major super-PACs of both parties bought television commercials during the last week of the campaign in 46 districts. Democrats have invested in potential breaks of homes in areas of a deep red like Oklahoma City and the suburbs of Atlanta, while Republicans are using their funds to fortify secure neighborhoods, located in the center of Virginia and on the coast of South Carolina.

"Republicans can only plug a lot of leaks in the dam while others start to appear," said Ken Spain, a former top official of the Republican Congress' national committee. "When we see such races emerge, we are probably in toxic territory."

Republican leaders who want to hold a majority of the party in the House, 23 seats, have already yielded to the Democrats seven districts controlled by the GOP, without spending money for the defense of television during the last week of the campaign. Nine more seats held by the GOP in the suburbs are already lost, acknowledged party officials.

This means that Democrats must win only seven of the approximately three dozen districts to win the majority in the House.

On Saturday, the GOP House Super PAC announced last-minute fundraising in Alaska to help Representative Don Young, elected every two years since 1972.

The political landscape was upset by more than the usual share of October surprises. Among them: the massacre of 11 people inside a Pittsburgh synagogue, an avalanche of homemade bombs sent to Trump's critics, the emergence of a caravan of plaintiffs. Central American asylum, a major hurricane in Florida and the battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

During all this time, most Democratic candidates remained focused on the central issue of the party: health care, particularly the maintenance of a federal requirement that insurance companies cover pre-existing medical conditions.

"Health care and the cost of prescription drugs are the number one problem in the district," said Democrat Kim Schrier, a pediatrician working in a competitive district held by the GOP in the Seattle suburbs. "People are really scared."

Republicans have followed the frequent changes in Mr. Trump's political agenda. They largely abandoned Trump's tax-cutting campaign last December and struggled to maintain a consistent message about the country's booming economy. Senate Republicans gained ground with Kavanaugh's confirmation, and then Mr. Trump drew attention to illegal immigration in the final days of the campaign.

"Trump will close the same way," said Scott Reed, the political strategist of the American Chamber of Commerce. "We just want it to be further described in terms of economic success, Kavanaugh, and the consequences of the Democrats taking control."

House Republicans running – especially in the suburbs – have tried to make their competitions a referendum on local issues rather than on the president.

"The people on both sides of the aisle who are probably the most in need are those who have lost touch with their districts," said Karen Handel (R., Georgia), a representative of Atlanta suburbs as Democrats are trying to return. "Do not be distracted by all this noise."

An increase in early voting is also a joker. Michael MacDonald, who is studying voting trends at the US election project at the University of Florida, announced Friday that 27 states had already received more ballots before the ballot than in the mid-term elections in 2014. .

In the 30 largest counties in Texas, where Democratic representative Beto O. Rourke is preparing a lively but long-term challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz, the total number of advance votes has exceeded the total number of votes cast in the last mid-term election.

The combination of last-minute information and an unpredictable president has been a test for all candidates, including dozens of new political adders, to stay focused.

"There always seems to be something going on," said Iowa Democrat, Cindy Axne, a first-time candidate and running for a GOP seat in Des Moines. "There is always more than we can talk about."

Write to Janet Hook at [email protected] and Reid J. Epstein at [email protected]