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Rio de Janeiro
TThey were true believers, camped outside the luxurious beach house of Jair Bolsonaro, in the New Rich from Barra da Tijuca, 40 km from the center of Rio and close to the Olympic Village and the waves of the Atlantic. "He is the messiah! He was stabbed, but rather than staying at home or staying on the beach, he remains to fight for his country, "said a woman wearing the shirt of the Brazilian National Football Team with the name from Bolsonaro printed on the back, where you can see that of Neymar or Marcelo. The far-right candidate, who became Sunday's presidential election favorite, stabbed before the first round of voting, is now leading his campaign in his Barra da Tijuca condominium with the help of his three sons, including two members of Congress.
The Bolsonarists were in turmoil when the hero of the candidate of the left party of the Workers' Party (PT), Fernando Haddad, widened to 20 points. "I see the light at the end of the tunnel," said José Ruiz Barcellos, who was wearing an Incredible Hulk t-shirt, his Armani shades reflecting the green and yellow Brazilian flags frantically agitated by the assembled bolonists. The flag says "Ordem e Progresso", but the bolonarists have put a particular emphasis on order.
"It will fund the police, we can not go here for fear of being attacked," said another woman, who refuted claims that Bolsonaro is a violently misogynist falsehood, despite ample evidence to the contrary. A jeep with a "truly militarized" sticker was filled with inflatable dolls by the long-time president of the Workers' Party and former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, dressed in a striped uniform from the prison.
The usual rage has been expressed against the Workers Party and its non-existent project of transforming Brazil into another Venezuela, although a new enemy has entered the speech: the day-to-day set-up Folha de S.Paulo has now been designated for attacks after revealing an avalanche of misinformation from supporters of Bolsonaro on Facebook and WhatsApp. "I know you're from Folha de S.Paulo; you are powerful, but you will soon lose, "said another woman, strangely convinced, despite my declining Portuguese, that I was working for the Brazilian newspaper. When Bolsonaro stepped into a black SUV with tinted windows, the crowd went wild and a cacophony of car horns invaded the avenue. "Mito, Bolsonaro Chegou!"They shouted (" The legend, Bolsonaro, has arrived! ")
Once inside, the candidate made a video to broadcast at the Bolonarists' rally on the same day in São Paulo, where he promised that once in power, he would "banish marginal reds." [delinquents of the left] of the fatherland; they will leave or be imprisoned, "he threatened, in a" cleansing never seen before in this country ". With an empty expression, his eyes barely connecting to the camera, he then added that former PT president, Lula, had been jailed in a controversial way for money laundering. , "Will rot in prison" and will soon be accompanied by Haddad. This is the kind of talk that the Bolsonarist base likes to hear and that has already cost the life of Reginaldo Rosário da Costa, a 63-year-old black capoeira master from Salvador de Bahia, murdered on October 8 by a supporter of Bolsonaro. It was a series of attacks against Afro-Brazilians and members of the LGBT community in recent weeks.
BThe hardened bolonarists are just the beginning of the dangerous flirtation between Brazil and the ex-captain of the parachute regiment. After more than two decades of insignificance, emerging from an almost comical speech of his lonely seat in a corrupt Congress, Bolsonaro has irresistibly imposed himself, like Arturo Ui de Brecht, in the heart, if not in the minds of millions of Disenchanted Brazilians. His followers are everywhere in Rio, and not just among the well-paid white men who adore firearms or evangelicals espousing "family values," the traditional base of Bolsonaro, himself a Christian fundamentist-lover of arms fire, baptized in Israel in 2016.
Bolsonaro became the mainstream in the last month. "I vote Bolsonaro," said a young black woman who served pão de queijo in the bakery across from Rio's breathtaking lagoon, although she can not explain why. "We need jobs, investments and markets like Bolsonaro," said a parking attendant in Copacabana who backed tough police action against drug traffickers in the favelas (a shootout between the police and traffickers broke out in the vicinity a few hours later). There were even Bolsonaro voters in the Umbanda Afro-Brazilian spiritual center in the peripheral district of Rio, Oswaldo Cruz, considered a school of Satanism by the Bolsonaro Evangelicals. "I am going to vote Bolsonaro; the system is corrupt and I want someone different, "said Rodrigo, one of the counselors who induces spiritual possession with the help of Afro-Brazilian Vodum techniques.
They are not fanatics of Barra da Tijuca, but ordinary cariocas who have come to believe that the candidate was the last chance to fight against a dysfunctional political system and a society torn by crime. Support for the far right icon has snowballed in the last three weeks. Millions of Brazilians have been seduced by what they see as an anti-state nonconformist who offers quick fixes to violent crime, mass unemployment and endemic political corruption. Most do not approve of Bolsonaro's violent rhetoric, expressing prejudices so openly that even Donald Trump would give up his eyes. But the disenchantment with the status quo in Brazil is such that his scandalous statements seem to make him credible as a politician capable of breaking the system.
Given that Lula's position in the polls was dominant until he was forced by the electoral authority to withdraw his candidacy in September, it is clear that a significant number of Supporters of the former president will now vote for Bolsonaro, an absurd feature of this election, in which confusion and disinformation undermined logic. The pro-Bolsonaro wave is stronger in the south and center, which are whiter and richer, and in the mega-cities of São Paulo and Rio, while the PT clings to the north-east, the homeland of Lula, where Haddad militates to try the tide of Bolsonaro in the traditional base of the party.
HHow did it happen so fast? After all, just a few weeks before the October 7 first-round election, most analysts expected Bolsonaro to be rejected in the second round, a pro-democracy vote choosing Haddad as the least of the ills. A rise in power at the last minute before the first round, which brought the vote of Bolsonaro to 46%, however changed the situation during the last week of the campaign. The pro-Bolsonaro wave has only become stronger since then, reaching about 57% of the electorate in the last election.
Few people were waiting for such support from a candidate of such extreme left – as close to fascism as you will get in the world today, despite the 39, a growing number of candidates. To cite a few examples: Bolsonaro's role model is the Brazilian general Brilhante Ustra, whose army unit tortured dissidents – former president Dilma Rousseff was a victim among hundreds – during the military dictatorship of 1964-1985. Bolsonaro's son, Eduardo, announced at a meeting in July that this week's film and broadcast was widely circulated. "Just have a soldier and a corporal to close the Supreme Court." Bolsonaro's vice-presidential candidate, retired General Hamilton Mourão, also defended the military's intervention to end corruption in the justice system. Bolsonaro said in the past that 30,000 people would need to be killed in a civil war against communists before democracy becomes possible in Brazil. His misogyny, homophobia and racism are expressed so openly that even Marine Le Pen described his rhetoric as unpleasant.
According to a recent Folha poll, 80% of the Brazilian population would support democracy, Haddad hoped that a broad alliance of political, civic and business leaders would help educate an uninformed electorate – number of them being denied basic education by centuries. submission to a privileged elite – about the true colors of Bolsonaro. But in the run-up to the October 28 elections, no alliance of this kind was born.
RInstead of highlighting the dangers inherent in Bolsonaro's victory, investors in the financial markets celebrated with euphoria the meteoric rise of Bolsonaro, banking analysts publicly applauding his commitment to radical privatization, the "reform" of pensions and the reduction of Brazilian state tax. Paulo Guedes, an economics advisor trained at the University of Chicago by Bolsonaro, was complimentary to the Avenida Paulista brokers. The real has strengthened and the stock markets have posted double-digit increases. Instead of rejecting Bolsonaro's tirades against diversity and freedom of expression, business leaders such as the head of the beer maker Ambev easily met Bolsonaro and chose to warn of defense public enterprises by the PT and to limit the power of private enterprises. banks.
according to Folha de S.PauloMajor bank executives from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Santander are on the lookout for positions in the Bolsonaro government. All this has helped to give him a more acceptable polish, even to those who do not sympathize with his extreme views. Voters watch the markets closely and are sanctioned by any inflationary depreciation of the real and any rise in interest rates that results.
The intrepid lawyer of the anti-corruption investigation Lava Jato (car wash) trained at Harvard gave a hand to Bolsonaro by releasing him – several months after its initial publication, and just when Haddad was gaining ground before the first round – former plea testimony of the former Lula Finance Minister, Antonio Palocci, who caused damage to the PT. Even senior judges appear to be more concerned about the PT than about the Bolsonaro family, despite the lack of respect for the extremist candidate for the Supreme Court of Brazil. Three examples: The electoral authority banned PT election advertising showing images of victims of torture ordered by Bolsonaro hero Brilhante Ustra (polls conducted by PT showed that the campaign effectively countered Bolsonaro's image of as new messiah). Secondly, Bolsonaro's false news campaign on WhatsApp was only slightly criticized by the judges. Thirdly, the Supreme Court rejected a request for Folha de S.Paulo ask Lula da Silva about the suspicious corruption charges against him.
Among the candidates beaten in the first round, only Marina Silva – the champion of the environment who is naturally shocked by Bolsonaro's plans to give carte blanche to the deforestation of the Amazon and withdraw from it. Paris agreement on climate – said his support for Haddad, though. Geraldo Alckmin, candidate of the center-right Brazilian Democracy Party (PSDB), who won only 5% of the vote in the first round, refused to take sides. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, former president and PSDB member who supported Alckmin, criticized Bolsonaro but did not make the crucial decision to support Haddad. Not even Ciro Gomes, former prime minister of the PT government with Haddad, actively supported him. After collecting 12% of the vote in the first round, he went on holiday in Europe, calling Brazil "sick country".
After Bolsonaro's inflammatory speeches in front of his home in Barra da Tijuca on Sunday and his son's support for a coup by a corporal against the Supreme Court, some members of the establishment seem finally to have become aware of the danger. Two judges of the Supreme Court have condemned Bolsonaro Jr.'s remark as a violation of the rule of law (although to date none of them have prosecuted Bolsonaro or questioned the legality of his candidacy). Cardoso said the comment "stinks of fascism". Cardoso and other PSDB leaders would have agreed to develop a manifesto for the defense of democracy, without, however, explicitly supporting Haddad.
It is almost certainly too late. And support for Haddad from discredited political leaders could even bolster Bolsonaro's growing wave of support, motivated by an effective operation of misinformation in a country rivaled only by the US for its reliance on social networks. Anti-PT sentiment is intense among half of the electorate, fed steadily over the last five years by politically motivated lawyers who targeted the PT for corruption, which is rampant in all parties in Brazil.
The news that Bolsonaro is considering appointing Judge Sergio Moro of Lava Jato – responsible for Lula's imprisonment – to the Supreme Court will help the far-right candidate, although Moro's reputation as super- hero (fan of Batman and Superman) has faded in the past. year, while more evidence emerged from his political bias. The economic mismanagement of the PT over the years Dilma Rousseff – before his dismissal in 2016 -, coupled with the failure of the subsequent policy of his successor Michel Temer, is another factor in the rise of Bolsonaro. Rousseff's austerity program worsened the recession, as congressional opposition and the media accused him of tax exclusion, a disastrous combination for the credibility of the PT, even though Temer continued on the same path . At the same time, the steady growth of conservative evangelism among Brazil's poor has fueled a cultural war that has detached voters from the working class from the left.
The inability of the Brazilian elite to support Haddad is another reminder that keeping the PT out of government is now considered by many to be a higher priority than democracy itself. After the collapse of the center-right, Bolsonaro seems to be the only option for those of São Paulo – and Wall Street – who support the radical liberalization of the Brazilian economy.
"They will pay the price for that. The PT is the only party to fight against fascism. This will give the left a moral advantage in the future, and Lula will be increasingly seen as a Mandela, "said an economist in Rio. Indeed, if Bolsonaro's commitment to ban the "marginal reds" of the country becomes more than pure rhetoric, the coming administration may take the strategy so far failed to destroy the PT on a new ground more violent .
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