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There are two very obvious things to look for when trying to find signs of whether a major player in the NFL will take the field or not. A, what is the injury status of the player? And two, what does Vegas do with the line for the game? In the case of Aaron Rodgers and his knee injury, suffered in the first half of the match of the week 1 against the bears before Rodgers came back after half-time to make a miraculous comebackno sign seems fantastic.
For starters, there is the very public status of Rodgers, who does not practice Thursday, said Mike McCarthy Thursday.
"Aaron Rodgers will be working in the rehabilitation group, he will obviously be trying to do more today than yesterday, but we'll see how that goes," McCarthy said.
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Rodgers said, immediately after the match, that he was definitely going to play Minnesota. But then, he pulled back this claim later in the week, do not make any promises to be on the field for the division game against the dangerous defensive team (and his first game against Minnesota since he broke his collarbone playing the Vikings last year).
"It's not a ploy, that's why it's a daily situation," McCarthy added.
Asked about his knee earlier this week, Rodgers said that he absolutely wanted to play but that he was still "pretty bad these past few days".
"I want to play, but just take it one day at a time and see how it goes tomorrow and see how it goes Friday, Saturday, and hopefully go Sunday," Rodgers said Wednesday.
Perhaps the biggest red flag of all is the SuperContest line distributed by the Westgate, which made the Packers +7 for this game.
Unlike a real line you can bet on, the SuperContest lines are locked Wednesday and will not move for the rest of the week. The current line of the Vikings-Packers game is somewhere if it's listed.
Now, it may be to prevent everyone from taking the Vikings if Rodgers does not play.
For example, if the line was a choice and Rodgers was out before Saturday, literally everyone would take the Vikings and not think twice. Even if Rodgers played, holding the Vikings at once would not be a big problem – they could still win the match. If you choose the Packers, you should be sure that Rodgers will be there.
Conversely, if the Packers are a seven point dog, it is much harder to blindly take Green Bay. If you take Minnesota as a big favorite on the road and Rodgers plays, you do not feel good in life. Take Green Bay as a huge house dog without Rodgers and you feel even worse. No offense at DeShone Kizer.
What is long to say is that this line may not really represent the real value of the betting market. OR maybe that means Las Vegas knows more than us.
The latter makes more sense if we are honest.
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