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On September 21, Mohamed Nasheed, former president of the Maldives, said at a press conference in Colombo, Sri Lanka, where he lives in exile, that he was expecting that his Opposition coalition wins Sunday presidential election. It will still not be easy, he added, because President Abdulla Yameen will probably do anything to stay in power – rigging voices, gang violence, and even police and military intervention.
Nasheed had sought help from the Indian army to solve the Maldives political crisis after Yameen imposed a state of emergency earlier this year. On Friday, however, he claimed that the opposition intended to overcome the political turmoil by its own efforts. "Do you know why I do not ask any country to be physically involved in the Maldives?" He asked, without naming India. "Because no country has the imagination to do it. Maybe they do not have the ability to do it.
Coming from a long-time champion of India-Maldives ties, this is a virulent accusation against Delhi's foreign policy. Relations between the two countries have reached their peak in the past three years, even as China has established itself in the region through trade agreements and infrastructure projects. The "cold war" in the Indian Ocean has affected about 30,000 Indian expatriates, the Maldives having stopped issuing and renewing their work and visas for dependents since the beginning of the year.
A second term for Yameen could mark the death of the Maldivian's decades-old Indian foreign policy. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the island nation would raise additional concerns for India's internal security. More importantly, despite all the talks he has made to make India a global superpower, the Narendra Modi government would have undermined India's traditional status as a regional superpower.
Unusual election
This presidential election is unusual for several reasons. Yameen successfully declared that all candidates who ran in 2013 were constitutionally ineligible. Forced into a corner, the Democratic Maldivian Democratic Party, the Republican party Jumhooree and the religious party Adhaalath joined forces against Yameen. This "cocktail coalition" is led by Ibu Solih, former legislator of the Maldivian Democratic Party. His deputy is Faisal Naseem, a new member of the Jumhooree party. Neither one nor the other is an obvious choice for the high-level post and both are widely regarded as substitutes for their most charismatic exile leaders – Nasheed and the Gasim tourism magnate Ibrahim, once "the richest man in the Maldives".
They face a daunting task. For months, the opposition, civil society and many international watchdogs have criticized the country's electoral commission for manipulating voter lists, inappropriate ballot boxes and access to classified information for the ruling party. The police also doubled the opposition, removing campaign posters, refusing permission to hold rallies and arresting activists. In response, the European Union and the United States have threatened to take targeted sanctions against the government.
But Yameen is mocked by his critics and has accused the West of imperialism and interference. His electoral discourse is based mainly on his claims of "revolutionary" development. It is insolent to establish diplomatic relations with China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to the detriment of Indian interests. "In the 21st century, the Maldives will not wait for people to come and help them," said Mohamed Shainee, minister of fisheries and the president's close confidant. "We are going to knock on anyone's door ready to help us and be our development partner. We had first asked India, but we found it difficult.
Shainee said he was confident about Yameen's electoral prospects. The ruling party, he said, will get 70% of the vote.
The failure of India
The opposition has repeatedly asked India to help it over the years, but to no avail. When the Indian Foreign Ministry began issuing statements expressing its "dismay" and "concern" at the political turmoil in recent months, even the Chinese state media reacted condescendingly and threatening . Meanwhile, the Yameen government has used their support of non-Muslim countries as evidence of the opposition party's agenda to dilute the Islamic identity of the Maldives. To demonstrate his own attachment to the religious order, he on Friday ordered police to destroy "anti-Islamic" sculptures in an underwater art gallery. That Yameen himself was accused of practicing witchcraft to win elections, considered an anti-Islamic practice, did not hold him back.
More worrying for India, a senior Indian official said the Maldives deny China's growing presence in the country and what that means. "They ignore the widespread concern among Maldivians, as well as international scholars and academics, about the potentially serious consequences of a rapidly growing and unsustainable foreign debt on exorbitantly expensive projects implemented without any transparency or institutional control, counterbalance ". I said. "In addition, all the traditional partners and friends of the Maldives are concerned about the functioning of democratic institutions and other independent institutions, including the judiciary."
India was very happy to know what role it could play in the event that Yameen continued its mandate. Nasheed claimed that he would continue to fight and even challenge the parliamentary elections scheduled in six months. "The way you build a democracy is not fleeing," he said at the press conference. "It's going there every day and not giving up."
