Abrams and Kemp virtually tied in Georgia governor's race

October 24, 2018 / 20:59 GMT

By Carrie Dann

WASHINGTON – The closely watched governor's race in Georgia is essentially tied. A second round in December seems possible if neither candidate exceeds 50 percent of the November contest, according to a new NBC News / Marist poll.

Democrats Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp both won the support of 47 percent of registered voters in Georgia. Among likely voters, Kemp gets 49%, compared to 47% for Abrams, but this result falls well within the error margin of the poll.

When libertarian Ted Metz is registered on the ballot, Kemp's lead is reduced to 1 point among potential voters: Kemp gets 46%, Abrams 45% and Metz 4%.

If no candidate exceeds 50% in the November contest, the first two winners of the vote will face in a second individual round on December 4th.

Abrams, who hopes to be the first African-American female governor of the country, has focused on mobilizing minority and younger voters to vote less often in mid-term elections, as well as winning women's and women's voters. colleges disillusioned by the GOP. .

Kemp won a contested Republican primary in July after hugging Donald Trump wholeheartedly and broadcast controversial TV commercials highlighting his opposition to illegal immigration and his support for the Second Amendment. (Critics of gun control were enraged earlier this year when it seemed to be jokingly threatening a teenager in an advertisement with a gun just a few months after the shot from Parkland School in Florida.) But since the primary Kemp attempted to portray a more mainstream Republican.

These priorities seem to be reflected in the performance of each candidate with the main groups of voters.

In a two-way race among potential voters, Abrams tops African-American voters between 84% and 11%, while Kemp leads the whites with a margin of 2 to 1 (66% to 31%) . African Americans accounted for 25% of all potential voters.

Abrams also earns 13 younger voter points (55% vs. 42%), women 14 points (55% to 41%) and college graduates 7 points (52% to 45%).

Among white women graduates, Abrams is 4 points behind Kemp, 47% to 51%.

Kemp led rural voters by a margin of 2-1 (66% versus 31% for Abram), men by 18 points (57% to 39%) and non-graduates by 11 points (53% to 42%). ).

Among the independents, Abrams leads 50% to 41%.

When Metz, the libertarian, is added to the question, he gets his strongest support from the self-employed (8%) and whites with a university degree (10%).

Attitudes towards Trump, Kavanaugh and Congress are also closely divided

At the state level, Trump achieved 49% approval among potential voters and 45% disagreed. Of all registered voters, he is tied with 47% to approve and 47% to disapprove.

Some of Trump's highest approval ratings come from white evangelical Christians (84 percent approve), white men with no university degree (80 percent approved), and those living in rural areas (69 percent). approved).

His disapproval rating in the state is particularly high among African Americans (79% disapprove), those living in the Atlanta metropolitan area (72% disapprove) and suburban women (60% disapprove) .

When asked if they preferred a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats, 48% of potential voters choose Republicans and 45% Democrats.

But 49% of respondents want their congressional vote to send a message to more Democrats who will serve as a check and balance for Trump, while 44% prefer a message of support to Republicans who will support the agenda. Trump.

There is also a narrow margin of difference between those who say they are more likely to support a candidate who has supported Supreme Court candidate Brett Kavanaugh. In Georgia, about four out of ten voters say they are more likely to support a candidate who supports Kavanaugh (39%), compared to 36% who say otherwise.

The NBC News / Marist survey ran from October 14 to 18, 2018. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.