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Life expectancy in 2040 should at least slightly increase in all countries, but the ranking will change radically, with Spain in first place, while China and the United States exchange places, researchers said.
With an expected average life expectancy of nearly 85.8 years, Spain – formerly 4th – will dethrone Japan, which currently occupies the top spot in the rankings with a lifespan of 83.7 years and will move to the 2nd place in 2040. Singapore will remain in third place with life expectancy rising from 83.3 to 85.4 years.
Hong Kong, which has the highest life expectancy in the world according to Japan's Ministry of Social Welfare, has not been ranked in this study.
According to the study, eight of the countries ranked in the top 10 for life in 2016 will still be in the top 10 in 2040.
In a change that will be perceived by some as the reflection of a superpower recovery, the two largest global economies are effectively exchanging their positions compared to 2016: in 2040, the United States passes from the 43rd to the 64th place (79.8 years), while China climbs from 68th to 39th (81.9 years). The average life expectancy in the United States will only increase by 1.1 years, compared with the average global increase of 4.4 years.
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The researchers found that Canada (from 17 to 27), Norway (from 12 to 20), Australia (from 5 to 10), Mexico (from 69 to 87) and North Korea from 125 to 153). Taiwan slides from the 35th to the 42nd.
Indonesia (117th to 100th), Nigeria (157th to 123rd), Portugal (from 23rd to 5th), Poland (from 48th to 34th), Turkey (from 40th to 26th), ln. Saudi Arabia (61st to 43rd).
Assuming its endless and devastating war ends, Syria is expected to rise from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040.
For the world as a whole, the researchers' study predicted a five-year life span increase from 73.8 years in 2016 to 77.7 years in 2040.
They also predict more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, in which life expectancy will rise to 81 years in the first case and stagnate in the second.
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"The future of global health is not pre-established," said lead author Kyle Foreman, head of data science at the Institute of Metrology and Health Evaluation (IHME) of the Department of Health. University of Washington.
"But if we find significant progress or stagnation depends on the extent to which health systems support the major factors of health."
The top five "drivers" or determinants of average life in two decades are all related to so-called "lifestyle" diseases: high blood pressure, overweight, high blood sugar, alcohol and tobacco use
Air pollution ranks sixth, which, according to scientists, would cost a million lives a year in China alone.
More generally, the world will witness an acceleration of the current shift from communicable diseases to noncommunicable diseases, as well as injuries, as the leading cause of premature death.
The study is conducted every two years. In 2016, noncommunicable diseases and injuries accounted for four of the top ten causes of premature death. By 2040, the top eight diseases – heart, lung and kidney disease, stroke, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, lung cancer and road accidents – will be in the top 10 research.
In 2018, the life expectancy of the poorest countries in the world will remain mediocre, according to the study published in the The lancet.
With the exception of Afghanistan, the 30 poorest countries in 2040 – with a projected lifespan of 57 to 69 years – are either in sub-Saharan Africa or in small island states of the world. Peaceful.
Lesotho, the Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Somalia and Swaziland are at the bottom of the ranking.
"Inequalities will continue to be important," said Christopher Murray, Director of IHME.
"In many countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely."
"But countries could move faster by helping people cope with major risks, including smoking and poor nutrition," he added.
Tobacco consumption alone kills an estimated seven million people each year, according to the World Health Organization.
In 2016, four of the top ten causes of premature death were noncommunicable diseases or injuries. By 2040, this figure is expected to reach eight out of ten.
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