According to a study, the global level of the sea could rise 15 meters by 2300

The global average sea level could rise by nearly 2.5 meters by 2100 and 15 meters up to 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and that Humanity turns out to be unlucky, according to a study of sea level change and projections from Rutgers and other scientists.

Since the beginning of the century, the average sea level has increased by about 0.06 m. Under moderate emissions, central estimates of the mean global sea level from different analyzes range from an additional 1.4 to 2.8 feet (0.43 to 0.85 m) by 2100, by 2 , 8 to 5.4 additional feet (0.85 to 1.65 m) by 2150 and 6 to 14 1.8 – 4.3 m) by 2300, according to the study published in Annual Review of the Environment and Resources.

And with 11% of the 7.6 billion inhabitants of the planet living in areas less than 10 meters above sea level, the rise of the sea poses a major risk to coastal populations , economies, infrastructure and ecosystems around the world, says the study.

The rise in sea level varies by location and time and scientists have developed a series of methods to reconstruct past changes and project future changes. However, despite divergent approaches, a clear story is emerging for the coming decades: From 2000 to 2050, the average ocean level of the planet will most likely rise from 6 to 10 inches, but it is extremely unlikely that it increases more than 18 inches. Beyond 2050, projections are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas emissions and methods of projecting changes in sea level.

"We know a lot about past and future changes in sea level, and many are uncertain, but uncertainty is not a reason to ignore the challenge," said the co-author of the report. Study, Robert E. Kopp, professor at the Department of the Earth. and planetary sciences at Rutgers University of New Brunswick and director of the Institute of Earth Sciences, Oceans and the Atmosphere of Rutgers. "It is essential to carefully characterize what is known and what is uncertain to manage the risks associated with rising sea levels for the world's coasts."

Scientists have used case studies from Atlantic City, New Jersey and Singapore to explain how current methods of reconstructing sea level change can limit future global and local projections. They also discussed methods for using scientific sea level projections and how specific projections can lead to new sea level research questions.

According to the study, much of the sea level rise in the 20th century, including the bulk of the global increase since 1975, is linked to global warming caused by climate change. # 39; man.

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More information:
Benjamin P. Horton et al, Map of sea level change in time, space and probability, Annual Review of the Environment and Resources (2018). DOI: 10.1146 / annurev-approx-102017-025826