According to one study, 40 million diabetics will have more insulin by 2030

A new study predicts that even as the number of people with diabetes continues to rise, access to insulin to meet the growing demand will decrease.

By the year 2030, 79 million adults with type 2 diabetes are expected to need insulin to manage their disease and if access rates remain the same, only half of those with diabetes will have diabetes. between them will be able to have sufficient supply, according to a modeling study released Wednesday. in the journal Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology.

Access to the drug needs to be dramatically improved, the researchers warned, particularly in the regions of Africa, Asia and Oceania, which will be the most affected.

"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are very inadequate in relation to projected needs, particularly in Africa and Asia, and that more needs to be done to address this problem. threatening health, "said Dr. Sanjay Basu, assistant professor of medicine at Stanford. American University, who led the research.

"Despite the UN's commitment to treat noncommunicable diseases and to ensure universal access to diabetes medications, insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult to access for patients."

Insulin is necessary to treat all people with type 1 diabetes and some people with type 2 diabetes. This last form of the disease is strongly related to lifestyle factors such as l? obesity, poor diet and physical inactivity.

The Basu team has begun to explore the evolution of diabetes rates over the next 12 years, including the increase in the number of diabetes cases, to predict the amount of insulin required and to determine if everyone who needs it will have access.

Using data from the International Diabetes Federation and 14 studies to paint a picture of type 2 diabetes figures in 221 countries, the team modeled the burden of type 2 diabetes from 2018 to 2030.

They predicted that, worldwide, the number of adults with type 2 diabetes will increase from 406 million in 2018 to 511 million in 2030. The United States will have the third highest number in the world, with 32 millions of people living with the disease 2030.

"The number of adults with type 2 diabetes is expected to increase over the next 12 years due to aging, urbanization and related changes in diet and activity physical, "said Basu.

However, not everyone with diabetes does not need insulin. Of this global total of 511 million, 79 million would need insulin to manage their diabetes, an increase of 20% in insulin demand, and only 38 million will likely have access to it according to current resources.

Insulin treatment is expensive and the market is currently dominated by three manufacturers, according to the study.

"Unless governments launch initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, its use will still be far from optimal," Basu said.