According to the Russian Minister of Economy, the ruble has moved away from the fundamental value


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VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (Reuters) – Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said on Wednesday that the ruble had "seriously deviated" from its fundamental value, but he expected the US dollar to reach 63-64 rubles in December.

A cashier holds 2,000 ruble notes in a bank in Moscow, Russia on November 21, 2017. REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov

Earlier this week, the ruble hit US $ 70.60 RUBUTSTN = MCX, its weakest since mid-March 2016, extending losses started in early August with the threat of new US sanctions against Moscow.

Officials, including some from the Ministry of Finance, said they had a wide range of tools in case of high market volatility.

Until now, the tools were not needed and there was no need to sell currencies to exporters to support the ruble, officials said.

"Currently, there is a deviation of the fundamental level (of the exchange rate) … It can last quite a long time," said Oreshkin Wednesday.

The ruble floated freely and was influenced by a number of factors, including sanctions and capital outflows, said Oreshkin on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in the Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok. .

The Ministry of the Economy lowered its forecast of economic growth in 2018 to 1.8%, from 1.9% to 1.3% against 1.4% in 2019, in mercurial markets, exits from faster capital and pessimism about the possibility of new US sanctions.

"We do not expect big positive surprises in the third and fourth quarters (in terms of economic growth)," said Oreshkin. "This is due to the increased unpredictability, the greater volatility of the financial markets."

Oreshkin said he did not expect economic growth above 1.9% in the last two quarters of 2018.

The board of directors of the Russian central bank is meeting on Friday to decide on its main interest rate, analysts expect the rate to remain stable, with the central bank sending a hawkish signal to calm the markets.

Oreshkin said Wednesday that this year's annual inflation could exceed its forecast by 3.4% if the ruble's exchange rate remains at its current level. The inflation target of the central bank is 4%.

Report by Polina Nikolskaya; Written by Maria Kiselyova / Katya Golubkova; Montage of Christian Lowe and Eric Meijer

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