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ANALYSIS / OPINION:
A year ago, in September 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on a claimed thermonuclear weapon. This was followed in November by the launch of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of reaching the continental United States.
Since that launch, North Korea has refrained from launching missiles or conducting nuclear tests. And since Kim Jong-un's January 2018 New Year's speech, we have had a significant and meaningful interaction between Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in and President Donald Trump. These meetings resulted in two key agreements: Panmunjon's declaration with South Korea and the Singapore agreement with the United States. Both agreements committed North Korea to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and all parties in search of a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean peninsula.
Despite these meetings and agreements and subsequent negotiations between the United States and North Korea, the United States is currently dissatisfied with the lack of progress in getting North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons and its nuclear weapons. nuclear installations. North Korea's nuclear and missile programs would still be active, with continued production of fissile material.
Thus, three months after the Singapore agreement of 12 June, there has been no apparent progress in the declared goal of "complete denuclearization". Some claim that Kim wants sanctions, with no intention to abandon his nuclear weapons program. Twenty-five years of unsuccessful negotiations to justify this point of view.
After working on North Korea's nuclear problem since 2003, I think we have made significant progress this year in the fight against North Korea's nuclear threat. A year ago, we looked into the possibility of a conflict, or even a nuclear conflict, on the Korean peninsula. Now, we are looking forward to seeing the lack of progress in addressing this issue three months after the Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore.
The imposition of harsh sanctions by the US Security Council and the enhanced United States-South Korea joint military exercises in 2017 no doubt contributed to Kim Jong-un's decision to seek a negotiated settlement of the US-South issues. United and South Korea. Kim Jong-un's assertion that North Korea, after its sixth nuclear test and the launch of an ICBM, now had a nuclear deterrent was also important, and could therefore focus on the economic development of a North Korea that could not feed its own people.
But Kim knows that economic development would only be possible through the lifting of sanctions and a normal relationship with the United States and other countries, as well as access to international financial institutions. Although North Korea would ideally want to have both nuclear weapons and a normal relationship with the United States, Kim Jong-un knows that this will never happen. Allowing North Korea to keep its nuclear weapons is not an option. If Mr. Kim wants sanctions to be granted and his relations with the United States are normal, a complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling of all nuclear weapons and facilities is necessary.
It now appears that Kim Jong-un has made the strategic decision to focus on economic development and a possible normal relationship with the United States. The importance for Mr. Kim and his regime, however, are security guarantees and a pathway to normal relations with the United States. Indeed, these are the issues being negotiated.
North Korea initially wants a peace treaty ending the Korean War, with sanctions and normal relations with the United States. (The US military presence in South Korea is technically unaffected by a peace treaty, and our military presence is based exclusively on a bilateral agreement between South Korea and the United States. Korean during a recent visit to Seoul).
The United States insists that North Korea immediately provide a nuclear declaration listing all its nuclear weapons and facilities, with a verification protocol that will allow nuclear inspectors to inspect undeclared suspected nuclear sites. The approach adopted by the United States in the September 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks was "Actions for Actions, Commitments for Comment".
Using this approach or similar approach, the United States would provide a statement indicating the intention to eventually sign a peace treaty to end the Korean War and North Korea would provide a comprehensive declaration of all its nuclear weapons and of its nuclear facilities. verification protocol that would allow observers to start monitoring the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons and facilities.
The cessation of the production of fissile material would also be necessary. This, and the possible establishment of Liaison Offices in the respective capitals, to facilitate dialogue, would be the beginning of a process that would result in the complete and verifiable dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons and facilities, all of which over the next two years. to agree with Kim Jong-un's statement made last week to a visiting South Korean delegation, that full denuclearization could be achieved during Mr. Trump's first term.
Currently, we are at an important point of inflection, requiring patient but intensified negotiations and perseverance, which should lead to a just and peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue with North Korea. This and progress on chemical, biological and cybernetic issues would then facilitate a dialogue aimed at normalizing relations with North Korea, which would require progress on issues relating to human rights violations in North Korea. and.
We are at an important and encouraging beginning of a trip with North Korea. We hope that we will reach our final destination through negotiations.
• Joseph R. DeTrani was the former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea. The views are those of the author and not of any government department or agency.
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