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BRUSSELS – While Britain continues to break the terms of its divorce with the European Union this weekend, Americans are already feeling the loss: a formerly indispensable proxy in Europe has more weight than ever before. He can act on behalf of Washington.
The exit of Britain from the European Union will require a general realignment of Europe and will probably involve a number of issues, ranging from sanctions to Russia to free trade through military strategy , which are of crucial importance to the United States.
"Having the UK in place made it easy for us. We were on the phone all the time. We were aligned ideologically in almost every respect, "said Anthony Gardner, US Ambassador to the European Union under President Obama. "It was our favorite country."
Relations between the United States and Europe have been strained in the era of President Trump, who has departed from many long-standing principles of US foreign policy to take a stand-alone approach to the world. But in areas where interests remain aligned, diplomats and leaders on both sides of the Atlantic say that it will be harder for Americans to exercise their will in a bloc of 27 of the world's richest countries.
European and British leaders will meet here Sunday to try to finalize terms of their split. A draft plan proposed this week aims to preserve close ties between Britain and the United States. in areas such as security, a US priority.
Leaders in London and Washington like to boast of their "special relationship", the fruit of centuries of political, cultural and linguistic relationships and trust. The reality, say the makers, is that Britain outside the European Union is much less special.
Pedestrians pass Parliament in London on November 21, 2018. (Chris Ratcliffe / Bloomberg)
Already, countries in the European Union claim to be the new darling of the United States. Ireland has bought a large building in Washington to expand its embassy. Poland has promised to build "Fort Trump" on Polish soil. Dutch diplomats enthusiastically present themselves in the United States as British stance and attitude.
"There will be a vacuum," said Stefano Stefanini, a former Italian diplomat who became a security consultant in Brussels. "Countries like mine, Poland, others, they would like to take over [of Britain’s absence.] But they do not have the kind of relationship that the United Kingdom has with the United States. "
And there are also potential political consequences for the British.
"All the American presidents I've known considered that our membership of the European Union reinforced our relevance to America," said former Conservative Prime Minister John Major in a speech delivered in London last month.
"Our value as America's ally will decline. Our friends, the Americans, are tough on power. It's a romantic folly to think otherwise. Do not doubt: if the UK can no longer serve America's interests in Europe, it will look elsewhere for someone who can, "he said.
This momentum undermines one of the Brexiteers' key arguments during their 2016 campaign to break ties with the European Union. Many supporters have thought of an exit from the EU. would make the special relationship even more special – and that a free trade agreement with the United States would be the first order of the day after Brexit.
Then come the Trump elections, inspired by the same wave of anti-immigrant and anti-establishment sentiments that reinforced Brexit. Although British Prime Minister Theresa May has tried to stay on good terms with her US counterpart, Trump rarely returned the favor: he made a phone call earlier this month about Brexit, criticized what he said were unjust trade agreements with Europeans and decried Relations between Great Britain and Iran.
"The whole of the US model that is based on compromises is anathema to him. And when we try to exchange the same form of cooperation with the United States, he thinks it's just something, "said Tomas Valasek, former NATO Ambassador to NATO, who is now leading the country. Carnegie Endowment Office for International Peace in Brussels.
In Brussels, diplomats say they expect the United States to try to form ad hoc coalitions in order to preserve the priorities of the United States. Countries oriented towards free trade such as Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Ireland could join for trade and data issues. On EU German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been one of the main supporters of the sanctions against Russia, but some pro-sanctions decision makers warn that the British departure will deprive them of an ally against the southern countries of the country. Europe seeking to dilute them to see the Kremlin as a threat.
"The whole approach of pro-liberal values and rapprochement with the Russians will be weakened," said a senior EU official involved in the sanctions policy who spoke under cover of anonymity to discuss delicate diplomatic issues.
On other issues, an unbound Europe of Britain is likely to go in a totally new direction – an idea that Americans may not like. A conflict erupted this month after French President Emmanuel Macron – the leader of the only remaining unit in the European Union. country with enough military power to engage in foreign operations alone – has expressed its desire to form a "real European army", a project that London and Washington have long been trying to prevent, fearing to divert NATO resources and weaken the Alliance.
When Britain was a full member of the EU, she vetoed such discussions. Now that Europeans are preparing for the future after Brexit, London no longer has a voice.
William Booth in London contributed to this report.
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