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Many of the controversial policies of US President Donald Trump could face more formidable resistance after the mid-term elections held in the country on Tuesday – which, according to pollsters, could bring about a strong comeback of the Democratic Party – but its hard position with regard to China will probably remain intact.
Since the two largest economies started to apply punitive tariffs on their mutual exports in July, Chinese experts have speculated that Trump – facing a "blue wave" from the November elections, that the president called a "referendum on me" – would find himself trapped in partisan politics and would see his Chinese policy also questioned.
However, while both sides are sharply divided on issues of immigration, medical, tax and economic care, their division on Chinese policies is much narrower, according to former US officials and analysts.
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"data-reactid =" 34 "> Mid-term polls in the US are also a vote on Sino-US relations
"Both sides are waiting for intermediate courses, but that is not going to change the trajectory of relationships," said Christopher Johnson, chair of the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Too many Chinese people tell me things will change after mid-term. It's probably misinformed.
The mid-term elections in the United States are Tuesday. The 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are put to the vote.
Polls suggest that Democrats are likely to regain control of the House, but probably not the Senate. In an interview that a week ago, Representative Nancy Pelosi, Democrat in San Francisco and House Minority Leader, said the Democrats would win "if the elections were held today." ; hui. "
Some Chinese researchers believe that a mid-term "blue wave" – a rise in Democratic victories – would compromise Trump's tough stance on China.
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Although the House has only a limited influence on foreign policy, Trump welcomed the speech, having used it in September to support his claim that China wanted the Republican party to lose half way .
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"data-reactid =" 42 "> Mid-market companies in the United States are among the most diverse groups of candidates ever created.
Washington and Beijing are engaged in a merciless trade war, enforcing punitive tariffs of up to 25 percent on their respective products, with Trump threatening to take further action. The Chinese economy has already begun to show signs of tension and the country's industry association has asked companies to comment on the impact of tariffs.
But there is little evidence that Democrats would argue for a softer approach to China. Since the beginning of the trade war, some influential Democrats have supported tariffs on Chinese exports and even supported Trump's conflicting approach on a wider range of issues with China.
In March, after the White House announced plans to unleash a trade war, Pelosi asked the Trump administration in March to "do a lot more to fight for US workers and products."
Senate Democrats, Sherrod Brown, of Ohio, applauded the tariffs. They also said that a more comprehensive and long-term strategy was imposed for trade with China, and Charles Schumer, of New York, the minority leader in the Senate.
Even Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat who is a notorious enemy of Trump, criticized China's commercial practices and human rights treatment during her visit to Beijing in March.
China has become an election issue for the first time in decades and will remain so until 2020, said Derek Scissors, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington that has acquired a great influence over the past two years.
"China is now a problem of the US presidential election," said Scissors. "It's about what will win the crucial votes in the industrialized countries in the next elections."
"Democratic presidential candidates are pondering how to pull China out of Trump," he said, adding that they were generally more opposed to trade than Republicans.
Ryan Hass, who led China's policy for the National Security Council under the Obama administration, acknowledged that bilateral relations have turned into a political issue under Trump.
"The areas of the country that President Trump primarily wants to win the presidency are those that have been affected by global trade and are sensitive to China," said Hass, currently a foreign policy researcher at the Brookings Institution.
There will be political pressure for presidential candidates to remain firm on China
Ryan Hass, Member of the Brookings Institution
Obama had tried to avoid political talks with China, he added.
"He did not want to make China a big political problem. It was too important for the future of the United States to be too politicized, "Hass said.
Trump has reversed the practice and China will remain political until at least the approach of the 2020 elections, he said.
"There will be political pressure for presidential candidates to stay firm on China," Hass said. "It's a mistake to consider what's going on as a mere Trump phenomenon that will disappear with its mandate."
A bill to impose a crippling ban on Chinese telecom giant ZTE Corp would have been confirmed by bipartisan support if it breached an agreement reached with the Trump administration after being accused of having sold material to North Korea and Iran in defiance of sanctions.
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"data-reactid =" 80 "> The US Congress, attentive to China, revises how the United States lends money for foreign development
The expansion of the Inter-Agency Committee on Foreign Investment in US Power to Review Mergers and Acquisitions by Foreign Buyers also garnered widespread support.
Even some Midwestern Democrats worried about the impact of the trade war on the US economy have strong views on China. Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, who wants to be re-elected on Tuesday, described China's trade practice as "a major concern for us," before saying that tariffs have also inflicted economic hardship on Americans.
Joe Donnelly, a Democratic senator from Indiana who also wants to be re-elected, raised questions about the tariffs in July – but only after agreeing with Trump that the US should "crack down on bad actors, including China." ".
The anti-Chinese speech was fueled in part by Trump's rhetoric against the Obama administration, said Johnson, China's CSIS specialist for China and former intelligence liaison with Hillary State Secretary Clinton.
Recalling China's policy of previous administrations, he said that he and some other former officials shared the feeling that "they were falling asleep on the way".
As a result, he said, some Democrats felt that they should become publicly hawkish in the US-China negotiations.
"Many Democrats in foreign policy, national security and the economy have worried about the fact that their reputation has become that of a schlub or an idiot."
"So the only way to react to that is to double up and look a bit more fierce," added Johnson. "When you interact with these people, they look much more like doppelgängers from the Trump administration."
Trump has repeatedly attacked China's policy of previous administrations, especially that of Obama. In a story the president frequently reported, Washington did nothing when China imposed 25 percent of the tariff on US automobiles under the Obama administration – even though, said Trump, a senior Chinese official told him that Beijing was waiting for serious retaliation from Washington.
Last month, Trump criticized Obama for a "helpless" policy in the dispute over the South China Sea, almost claimed by Beijing as its territory.
Johnson said that Trump's accusations about the Obama administration were not right. But Johnson acknowledged that he had felt frustrated by previous administrations when Washington had not responded to the "minimal expectations" as to how it should behave.
"Let's take the example of Scarborough Shoal in 2012. They expected us to try to dislodge them from there or, at least, push them back very harshly," he said. "We have not, there have been no consequences.
In early 2012, China took control of Scarborough Shoal, an outcrop in the South China Sea claimed by Beijing and Manila, and deployed navy and coast guard vessels to prevent Filipino fishermen from working in affluent areas. fishing nearby. The Chinese coastguard only left in 2016, after the thaw of relations with Manila.
Hass rejected the idea that the Obama administration did not have a strategy to force China to change its behavior.
"There are things if we had the chance to do it again, we could have done otherwise. We have not done everything perfectly, "he conceded. "People seem to suggest that previous administrations have just tried to meet behind closed doors, talk kindly to China and ask them nicely. This is incorrect. "
He said Obama's approach to China included: a direct engagement with Beijing; file a record number of cases against China with the World Trade Organization; and the establishment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which brought together 65% of the world economy to force China to raise its standards. commercial.
Trump has since been removed from the TPP.
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In October, Democrat senators insisted that Trump get proof of his interference in China. The two parties then split after Trump's accusation that Beijing was compared to Moscow.
Still, the concern over China's so-called influence and its soft power campaign is not just partisan.
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"data-reactid =" 133 "> FBI chief tells US Congress that Russia's security is bigger than Russia
Laura Rosenberger, former cabinet director Tony Blinken, Obama's deputy state secretary, said that China's influence campaign – just like Russia's interference in the Election 2016 – should be considered a national security issue.
<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" It's really important that these threats to democracy The National security community will understand that tactics of authoritarian interference are a threat to national security, "she said. It's not just about values, but is on values, but also certainly on national security. "" data-reactid = "135"> "It is really important that these threats to democracy resulting from tactics of authoritarian interference be understood by the national security community as a threat to national security", she said. "It's not just about values, you have to is on values, but also certainly on national security. "
Rosenberger, who also coordinated national security policies for Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016, said the US government was still not properly set up to address the problem of meddling. election of a foreign country, be it Russia, China or any other country.
"I continue to be struck by how many of these issues are falling into the vein of government bureaucracy," she said. "We are not structured to understand or counter these threats. We really need to think seriously internally about how to better position ourselves. "
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