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LONDON – World oil demand will grow at a slower pace than expected this year and next year, due to economic risks related to trade tensions and rising oil prices, announced Friday. International Energy Agency.
In its tightly monitored monthly Oil Market Report, the Paris-based organization lowered its 2018 and 2019 oil demand growth forecasts by 110,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. barrels and 1.4 million barrels.
The IEA said rising oil prices had reduced consumer appetite, particularly in emerging markets, while the trade dispute between China and the United States threatened global economic growth from impacting the economy. demand for oil.
Revisions to demand come as oil prices reached their highest level in four years in early October, with Brent crude – the global benchmark – temporarily exceeding the $ 85 per barrel mark. Prices were supported by lower production and exports from Iran before the adoption of US sanctions on the country's oil industry next month.
The Brent, the global benchmark, finished Thursday down 3.4% to $ 80.26 a barrel.
The IEA said the Iranian bid fell to its lowest level in two and a half years in September, as buyers continued to reduce their purchases before the November 4 deadline. Crude oil production fell 180,000 barrels a day last month to settle at 3.45 million barrels a day last month, the agency said.
In May, President Trump released the United States from a 2015 international agreement to curb the Iranian nuclear program, paving the way for the reimposition of sanctions.
Nevertheless, in the medium and long term, the IEA said that there was "no peak in sight" for global oil demand. "Drivers of demand remain very strong, petrochemicals being a major factor," the report says.
The IEA said global oil demand and supply was approaching new "historically important peaks" of the order of 100 million barrels a day.
Despite the decline in Iranian production, other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its producing partners such as Russia have increased production to fill the gap, according to the IEA.
OPEC oil production rose by 100,000 barrels per day in September, reaching 32.78 million barrels a day, the largest increase coming from Saudi Arabia, where the oil spill in the United States rose sharply. supply climbed to 10.52 million barrels a day. This is roughly equivalent to OPEC's own estimate provided in its monthly report on the oil market, released Thursday.
Russian production has risen by about 160,000 barrels a day to a record 11.36 million barrels a day in September, the IEA said.
The OPEC and Russia agreed in late June to start gradually increasing their crude oil production after more than a year of slowing down.
These increases, combined with rising oil production in the United States and Canada, mean that "the oil market is adequately supplied at the moment," said the IEA.
But the agency said the cuts in Iran's output, combined with threats of further supply disruptions in Libya and Venezuela, suggest the market "is clearly signaling its concerns over the need for". an increase in the supply ".
Write to Christopher Alessi at [email protected]
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