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The ALCS 2018 is a battle of 2018. It is the reigning World Series champion facing the most winning team of the regular season over the past 17 years. In Alex Bregman words: "The two best teams on the planet … it'll be fun!" The two remaining teams from the NL may have something to say about this, but nothing prevents us from saying that Astros-Red Sox has all the ingredients of a classic series. This is the first time since 1942 that two teams with at least 103 wins will play in the playoffs. There are stars and intrigues everywhere you look. Indeed, Alex. It'll be fun.
How did they get here
Thanks to their convincing sweep of the Indians by ALDS, the Astros' 103 wins will have had four days of rest when the first game kicks off on Saturday night. Cleveland has a talented team, but has looked completely outmatched against the Astros. Houston outscored the Indian 21 to 6 on the three-game sweep, with their lineup, starters and scorer all performing at a high level.
The other ALDS was still tied 1 to 1 when the Astros got their place on the round of the championship series. The Red Sox have won twice in two days at Yankee Stadium, the first game having been clubbed 16-1 and the second 4-3, which scared the ninth for Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox, with 108 wins, played two impressive games as the series' momentum seemed to be in favor of the Yankees before they returned home after a win in Game 2 at Fenway Park.
The queues
The formation of the Astros has always been excellent in its three ALDS action games. As a team, they reached .327 with a 1,036 OPS, the highest level of playoff series in the history of the MLB. Playoff Bregman led the way. After a fantastic 24-year season in which he became the best player in the Astros, Bregman continued to rack up the playoffs. He reached the base in nine of 13 batters, retired once, and fired off nets from Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer (and approached third). Next place in the first two games of the ALCS? Chris Sale, whom he dropped twice in last year's ALDS program, and David Price, whom he dominated in June. George Springer had another outstanding series in the playoffs, scoring 6 of 14 points with three homers after throwing five bombs in last year's World Series. And neither one led the Astros into hits or RBI – that was Marwin Gonzalez, who scored 7 out of 13 and drove out of five. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Martin Maldonado also dominated for Houston. This training tied for second place in baseball with a 109 OPS + in the regular season and reaches its peak at the right time.
The only team with a better OPS + than the Astros in 2018? The Mookie Betts, Red Sox, led by J.D. Martinez, led to 112. Martinez was the great success of the first match with a three-point circuit J.A. Happ and all the training were flexible in the third match. Betts and Martinez each scored two points, Andrew Benintendi in three and utility player Brock Holt hit for the cycle with five points produced. Guys like Ian Kinsler, Xander Bogaerts and Steve Pearce each had at least four hits in the series. The Red Sox will need Betts, who beat .188 against New York, to regain his regular season form against the Astros.
Edge: same
The starting pitchers
The Astros sent former Cy Young winners to the mound at Games 1 and 3. Each of these two players, Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, allowed two points in five and 5 1/3. Strong starts, of course, but nothing to do with what Gerrit Cole did in Game 2. Cole gave a point and three hits in seven innings, eliminating 12 Indians in a dominant performance. Verlander is back on the mound for the first match of the ALCS. He has a 5-2 record and a 2.57 record in ERA in seven career starts and has never given up a success against Betts (15 appearances at the plate). It's Cole in the second game, then presumably Keuchel (4.65 in 2006) and Charlie Morton.
Sale's ALDS performance was encouraging for the Red Sox. He was worried about his fastball speed in September, but he was back at about 95 mph when he started against the Yankees. He was his usual dirty in this game, scoring nine goals and allowing five hits in 6 1/3 of the round. Sale vs. Bregman Saturday night will be a television not to be missed (like the rest of the game and series). Interestingly, Alex Cora stayed with David Price as starter for Game 2. Price dropped Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, who failed to get out of the second run on his last start. He has averaged 5.28 in the playoffs, leading to a reputation for not having what it takes to be successful in October. It is an important point for him to change this story. Right-handed players Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi will receive the call of Games 3 and 4 and will each have an impressive outing.
Edge: same
Bullpens
Teams like the Brewers, A's and Yankees were mostly advertising their dominants, but Houston led the majors in ERA Bullpen in the regular season with a dominant mark of 3.03. The Astros have lived up to this reputation in the ALDS. Thank you to each starter of at least five rounds, A.J. Hinch did not need to go too far in his renovated enclosure against the Indians. Two former starters (Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh) and two mid-season acquisitions (Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna) combined for eight scoreless innings, with nine strikeouts and three hits. Will Harris was the only lifter to allow a race, and he will not appear on the list for this round. The ALCS could represent twice as many games and goes against a better attack. Hinch will have to call on guys like Hector Rondon, Tony Sipp and Josh James.
The Red Sox scorer was very effective against the Yankees, although he was concerned about the playoffs. Like Houston, Boston had four guys (Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier and Heath Hembree) who pitched at least two innings without allowing a race. Brazier is an unlikely and consistent weapon for Cora. Barnes and Kelly both struggled in the second half. It will be interesting to see if they can continue to win the success of the ALDS. Kimbrel almost lost a three-point lead in the ninth in the fourth game and will have to be more precise against the Astros.
Edge: Astros
Managers
Hinch and one of his former assistants will participate in different canoes for this huge series. Cora has coached the Astros for the past two seasons before taking over from John Farrell in Boston. Both managers had phenomenal seasons. Hinch has experience in the World Series and a top corrector, but Cora has better bats available like Pearce and Brock Holt. Cora proved that he was not afraid to give up the convention when he used Sale in the eighth round of the match-4. Hinch has major decisions to make regarding the substitutes he will include in the formation of the ALCS.
Edge: same
X factor
It's so difficult to separate these two teams. The queues are a wash. Aces are a wash. Cole gives the Astros an advantage over Price in the second game, but Porcello and Eovaldi have a better start than Keuchel and Morton. The Red Sox could have a defensive advantage; Betts is the best player on either side and leading indicators are slightly in favor of Boston. The most obvious factor X is the market, where the Astros have a definite advantage over paper. That being said, Kelly and Barnes have been impressive in the SLD. The season series does not tell us anything either. The two teams shared a four-game series in Houston and the Astros took two out of three at Fenway, surpassing the Red Sox 34-31 overall.
Prediction: Astros out of 7
If this series deserves the hype and goes up to seven full games, we feast. It's just hard to compete with the Astros given their dominance of the last lap. They have the courage of the defending champions. They will take one of the first two games at Fenway, win two of the three at home, and then do it on the road back to the fall classic. Give me the team with Bregman, Springer, Verlander and Cole.
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