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Carl Malamud
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The US labor market is the most tense in decades, as shown by the latest monthly employment report, and is expected to tighten only more.
The consequences have been remarkably illustrated by
Amazon.com
of the
(AMZN) announced that it would increase the minimum wage it pays to its American workers to $ 15 an hour on November 1st. The change will benefit more than 250,000 workers, including those working in Whole Foods warehouses and supermarkets.
Amazon's move will also have ripple effects. Blue-collar workers across the United States should benefit as their employers strive to follow the largest retailer in the world.
"As in many areas, Amazon is ahead of the curve," said Gad Levanon, chief economist for North America at the Conference Board, a nonprofit research organization. Barron. "The reality is that the threat of labor shortages is more acute in blue-collar and low-paid jobs than in the more highly skilled white-collar professions, unlike the trends that have prevailed in these professions. past decades. "
Barron anticipated this trend in a cover story this year. Expect to continue. Most American workers have spent a decade without a decent increase, but demographic changes and the improvement of the economy have begun to change that. Last month, hourly wage growth increased from 2.9% to 2.8% on an annual basis, but is expected to increase as competition for workers increases.
According to the analysis of the Labor Cost Index, a quarterly series set by the government, the Conference Board is more critical of the wage growth of employees and blue-collar workers.
"The consequences for companies are very visible: retention rates and the quality of workers are decreasing for blue-collar workers and wage growth is accelerating considerably, much more than for white-collar jobs," he says. Levanon. "In addition to the positive advertising that Amazon enjoys, they are also adapting to the new reality of the job market faster than most other blue-collar employers."
Wage increases are good for workers and the economy as a whole. But a general labor shortage could hamper the economy if businesses could not find people to do crucial work. Houses will not be built because there are not enough carpenters and retailers will not grow unless they find reputable business partners. Levanon fears that a shortage of manpower will hurt the gross domestic product.
Others are less safe. "If the labor shortage were real, wage growth would be stronger," says Heidi Shierholz, Senior Economist and Director of Policy at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-wing research organization. "We do not see that."
Some industries where executives now complain about not finding workers simply have not raised wages enough, she says.
But if a generalized shortage is not yet obvious, it is obvious that this will happen in the years to come, simply because of demography. The US population is expected to grow by 9% by 2030, while the working-age population is only growing by 3%, according to the Census Bureau.
Robots will fill a few of these jobs, but many economists doubt that our mechanical replacements are over time – and many of these robots will need human manipulators.
The labor shortage will depend on the significant productivity gains and flexibility of employers. It is time for more of them to consider hiring ex-inmates and spending more money on training new workers, for example. This change in mentality could take years.
In the meantime, expect wages to continue to grow.
Write to Avi Salzman at [email protected]
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