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The trial of an American pastor, whose detention triggered a diplomatic stalemate between Ankara and Washington, resumed Friday in Turkey.
There is growing speculation that Turkey may allow Andrew Brunson to return to the United States, ending the diplomatic crisis.S. President Donald Trump has condemned Brunson's prosecution for terrorism.
Several media reported Thursday that the Trump administration had reached an agreement with Turkey, easing some sanctions in exchange for Ankara reducing or abandoning the lawsuits against Brunson.
Washington is now cautiously optimistic about Brunson's release, possibly as early as Friday.
"I am hopeful that in a short time Pastor Brunson, he and his wife, will be able to return to the United States," said Wednesday the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Pompeo was reportedly involved in intense behind-the-scenes discussions with Ankara about Brunson's release.
Heather Nauert, State Department spokeswoman, told reporters on Thursday: "I am not aware of any such agreement … Judicial proceedings are ongoing".
"I hope that in a short time, he and his wife will be able to return to the US This would be an important step forward for relations between the United States and Turkey … But we are waiting with Looking forward to following the case very closely tomorrow, "Nauert said.
She added that representatives of the US Embassy would attend Friday's hearing to support Brunson.
Erdogan position
As a sign of Brunson's possible release, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to distance himself from any decision. "I am the president of the Turkish Republic, a democratic and constitutional state," Erdogan said on Tuesday. "Therefore, I must obey the decision of the judiciary.All related parties must abide by judicial decisions.That's all," he added.
Erdogan played a leading role in defending the lawsuits against Brunson as relations with Washington deteriorated.
The American pastor is sentenced to 35 years in prison for terrorism and espionage. Prosecutors accused Brunson of supporting supporters of Turkey-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, who was accused by Turkey of committing the 2016 coup. The minister is also accused of helping the separatist group Kurdish forbidden, the PKK.
Washington describes these accusations without foundation, accusing Ankara of taking diplomatic hostages. Trump, in August, partially in retaliation for ongoing lawsuits against Brunson, slapped Turkey with tariffs. The action caused a collapse of the Turkish lira. Erdogan fought back, accusing Washington of waging an economic war.
"There is not only the evangelical base of Donald Trump, a wide range of Americans generally consider Brunson and other American detainees as political hostages," said the analyst. Atilla Yesilada policy of Global Source Partners.
"Any normalization of relationships is out of the question as long as Brunson is in detention," he added. "If Brunson is not allowed to go home after Friday's hearing, Trump could become impatient and impose more penalties."
The threat of new American sanctions against the torn economy of Turkey feeds the speculation on the release of the pastor.
"Yes, I expect it to be released, Turkey will do it more and more," said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of the Middle East Technical University. East to Ankara.
"With America, I do not expect relations to deteriorate," he added. "On the contrary, there will be lasting stability and, in the long run, relations between Turkey and the United States will continue as before." Turkey and America need one of them. ;other".
Syrian cooperation
Despite the current crisis in relations, which extends to many other problems, the two NATO allies continue to cooperate in Syria. Ankara recently said that cooperation has improved.
The growing hope of Brunson's release on Friday, and therefore the removal of new US sanctions, is seen as a reason why the Turkish lira has stabilized after weeks of sharp declines.
However, some analysts remain cautious, citing the opaque nature of the decision-making process in Turkey. "There is a significant risk that these expectations [Brunson’s release] Inan Demir of Nomura International, chief economist, explains that it is extremely difficult to understand the thinking of key policy makers, so that it is quite possible to make surprises. "
"I would say it's a coin, 50-50, that Brunson be released," analyst Yesilada said.
"I do not see in the ruling party, the AKP in power, that he is about to be released.No unified approach prepares public opinion for his release" Yesilada added.
Analysts suggest that Brunson's release is complicated by some Erdogan advisers who warn him to appear weak against Washington's pressure.
There are many outstanding issues between NATO allies. Next month, the United States will impose stiff sanctions on Turkey's neighbor, Iran, and Washington is pressuring Ankara to comply with these measures.
"Ankara could seek a reciprocal gesture from Washington for the release of Brunson," said former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served in Washington. Trump would have ruled out any concessions until Brunson returned to the United States. However, analysts point out that Trump has so far imposed no new measures against Turkey.
The Turkish public bank Halkbank faces a heavy fine of up to billions of dollars for violating the sanctions previously imposed on Iran. Analysts suggest that the magnitude of the penalty could be tied to Brunson.
Analysts believe that a large fine, as well as the risk of further investigations and tougher penalties against other Turkish banks, could be a significant blow to the already weakened Turkish financial system.
"It's like a house of cards – it all depends on Brunson's exit," Yesilada said. "If it's released, it opens the door to solving other problems [between Ankara and Washington]. The alternative is escalating tensions that could lead to total drift [sanctions] war, like the United States against Iran ".
State Department correspondent Cindy Saine contributed to this report.
