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The new CNN poll reveals that the percentage of Americans who believe that President Donald Trump will win a second term increases.
Forty-six percent of respondents believe that Trump will beat his Democratic opponent in 2020, compared to 47 percent who think he's going to lose. The poll has a margin of error of 3.8%, so it's a draw.
However, it seems surprising that the public thinks that Trump's chances are improving. In March, 54% of Americans believed the president would lose by 2020.
Of course, as the CNN report notes, these predictions have proven wrong in the past. The polls of 1995 and 2010 showed that a majority of Americans predicted that Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton would be reelected.
In any case, the slight rise in the number of people predicting a Trump victory may be linked to the sentiment of democrats and independents with a democratic tendency over the party's potential candidates for 2020. The field is vast and support is currently scattered.
The poll shows that former vice president Joe Biden is leading the group with 33%, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont with 13% and Senator Kamala Harris of California with 9%.
We are still two years away from the next presidential election and a few weeks away from mid-2018, so everything is very preliminary. And as CNN's Ryan Struyk points out, the Republican squad of November 2014, two years before Hillard Clinton's then-candidate defeat, had changed dramatically.
In 2014, the former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, was in the lead with 20% of the vote, followed by Ben Carson with 10% and former Florida governor Jeb Bush with 9%.
The poll reveals that Trump's party continues to support it by a large majority, with 74% of respondents wanting him to serve for a second term. Twenty-one percent of republicans and Republican independents would prefer someone else.
The telephone survey, conducted by SSRS, sampled 1,009 adults randomly between October 4 and 7.
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