[ad_1]
MEXICO CITY – Mexico is coming out of its deadliest year in recent history. Record amounts of opioids and cocaine are being seized en route to the United States. The Mexican army patrols cities in vast areas of the country, its navy shaking the doors of raids against the bosses of the drug cartels.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the favorite for Sunday's presidential election, praises a gentler approach
" Abrazos, no balazos " – or "cuddling, not blows of "" – was a slogan of the campaign.
The leftist politician pledges to reduce poverty as a way to solve the crisis of violence here, while maintaining a partnership with the United States. "You can not fight fire with fire," repeated López Obrador
. The approach of the next president will likely have far-reaching consequences on both sides of the border. circulation of heroin and other opiates in US cities, the number of Mexicans fleeing violence in the United States and the amount of illicit drug traffickers flooding Mexican society, corrupting police and Mexico, with nearly e 30,000 homicides last year, is the highest of two decades of available statistics. Traditional drug cartels have been divided into increasingly violent rival factions that extort, kidnap, steal gas and steal trains, in addition to selling drugs. During the election campaign, which also included races for governors, congressional officials and local lawmakers, some 130 politicians and activists were killed.
Andres Manuel López Obrador, presidential candidate, greets the crowd at his last rally, Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on June 27. (Alejandro Cegarra / Bloomberg News)
"Insecurity is the number one problem in the country," said Marcos Fastlicht, an eminent businessman and one of López's six advisers Obrador.
But López Obrador's vague proposals have left security experts confused as to whether he represents a fundamental break with how former Mexican presidents deal with drugs and violence and he weakens the security partnership with the United States. In the last two Mexican jurisdictions, US agencies such as the Drug Enforcement Administration and the FBI have been working closely with their Mexican counterparts in tracking down drug traffickers, providing intelligence and equipment, and s & # 39; Associating with Missions
[ the man who goes through AMLO is the favorite to win the presidential election in Mexico]
López Obrador is a long-time left-wing politician who it's gradually moved to the center in recent years. Before the last elections in 2012, he called for blocking US intelligence work in Mexico. In this campaign, however, he called for a strong relationship with the United States on trade and security.
"I believe that there will be continuity in security cooperation" with the US government, said Jorge Chabat, an analyst and professor at the University of Guadalajara. "I have no doubt that he will have a period of reflection on security cooperation, but I do not believe that there will be real change."
Others say that a profound change is possible.
to fight the drug war in the way it has been fought over the past few decades, "said David Shirk, a professor at the University of San Diego who is an expert on security issues In Mexico Considering Legalization
Considering Legalization
López Obrador and his team of security advisers have designated extreme poverty as the ultimate source of insecurity in Mexico and have announced that they would offer Jobs and scholarships to attract vulnerable young Mexicans away from cartels The candidate also launched the idea of an amnesty for those involved in drug trafficking – a plan that sparked instant controversy, and was followed by the assurance of his assistants that it would be limited to farmers growing drug crops.
López Obrador also opened the door to legalization On the drug – until now, Mexico has decriminalized the personal possession of small amounts of marijuana – and does not seem interested in intensifying confrontations with cartels. He called the military out of police work against the drug gangs.
However, López Obrador does not hurry to withdraw the army from the cities; His goal is to do it over three years, according to one of his security advisers. And he proposed a new 300,000-strong national guard composed of military and police who would do essentially the same job, but, hopefully the campaign, with better coordination between security agencies.
At a campaign stop in Culiacan, capital of Sinaloa State, one of the country's drug production and trafficking centers, López Obrador said that "we will not only use force ", reported New Yorker magazine. "We will analyze everything and explore all the ways that will enable us to achieve peace, I have not excluded anything, not even legalization – nothing."
[Facebook’s fight against fake news has gone global. In Mexico, just a handful of vetters are on the front lines.]
Opponents of López Obrador have grasped his idea of Amnesty to portray him as desirous of releasing criminals. "You want to forgive the unforgivable," said Jose Antonio Meade, the candidate of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, during a debate on security issues
López Obrador raised for the first time the The idea of an amnesty in December in the state of Guerrero. After a tumult, López Obrador and his advisers insisted that he would not release violent criminals but would prefer to prevent the prosecution of poor farmers who plant marijuana and opium poppy
" Kidnappers? No, "said Olga Sanchez Cordero, a former Supreme Court justice who was chosen to head the powerful Interior Ministry if López Obrador is elected, about possible beneficiaries of the amnesty . "Who?" People who work in rural areas, who are criminals because they work in drugs, but have not committed crimes such as murder or kidnapping. 19659022] Security experts say that many details still need to be clarified and legislated. Some see the idea as a continuation of a radical judicial reform put in place over the last decade in Mexico, which has attempted to decriminalize minor drug offenses and to resolve more cases through mediation. and restitution
. a way to reduce violence.
"It's a matter of justice, not a security issue," said Francisco Rivas, director of the National Citizen Observatory, a security oversight agency. "If a person has been forced to commit crimes, then we have to reopen these cases. [But] What we can not say is: Reopening these cases or amnesty the criminals will reduce the violence." [19659025] López Obrador proposed some changes that have echoes from other administrations.His National Guard plan has similarities with the program of President Enrique Peña Nieto to create a new gendarmerie, a force has been widely criticized as ineffective and unable to settle on a mission.
"I'm not overwhelmed by all this" Olson, an expert on Mexico and security at Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, said López Obrador's security plans. falls well in the norm for what other politicians have said. "
López Obrador's security advisors insist that they want to maintain good working relationships with security agencies American, including the DEA. The DEA and other agencies often provide information that leads to the arrest of high-level drug traffickers. Analysts say it would hurt Mexico more than the United States, and Mexico needs help on issues such as stopping the flow of arms to Mexico
"We Let's seek US cooperation "to block arms trafficking, said Alfonso Durazo, one of López Obrador's security advisers – a regular refrain of Mexican politicians.
The security relationship goes both ways: US agencies help their Mexican counterparts on narcotics hold migrants to the United States from Central America. If relations between the López Obrador government and the Trump administration become tense, the cooperation of Mexico could diminish.
"López Obrador could easily order the security forces to take no action against immigrants coming from Central America and passing through Mexico," said Mike Vigil. , a former head of DEA's international operations. "And if they do, the 2,000-mile border will be a leaky sieve."
President Trump regularly criticized Mexico over drugs, crime and migration. López Obrador, a more combative personality than Peña Nieto, could have less patience with the American leader
"If Trump feels vulnerable or that he needs to beat Mexico, it's there that the Shock becomes almost inevitable, "said Shirk. "All of this could very well be played over the next few years."
Gabriela Martinez contributed to this report.
Read More
Violence soars in areas of Mexico that provide American heroin
Mexico's next president could be a leftist demagogue or a practical reformer
. has quietly helped Mexico with new high-tech means of fighting opium
Today's cover of postal correspondents from around the world
Like Washington Post World on Facebook and remains on foreign news
[ad_2]
Source link
